Let's assess where we are this season.
Playoff Predictions
1. Alabama
As I've said for a long time, as much as I want Alabama to lose, I just can't pick against them.
2. Ohio State/Michigan winner
Most of the smart money has the winner of this season ending rivalry to go on and win the Big Ten. For a while, it looked like Wisconsin or Nebraska could be the primary challengers in the West. However, the Big Ten's schedule was structured so that out of those four teams, only Nebraska and Michigan did not meet. Wisconsin has already lost to both of the East teams. The best chance for a Big Ten West team to get into the CFP would probably be Nebraska, and they would have to upset Ohio State in the regular season, and then ether beat Michigan or Ohio State again in the championship game.
3. Washington
If the Huskies can make their way through the rest of the schedule, they could very well be the undefeated champs of the Pac-12. Might as well call them Obi-Wan, though, as they are the conference's last hope for a CFP participant.
4. ACC Champion
Right now, the favorite out of the ACC is Clemson. The Coastal is shaping up to have the most interesting divisional race in years, but too many teams have taken too many losses to earn a shot at the playoff without a lot of lucky breaks.
Unfortunately for Louisville, they lost the wrong game. While they appear to be playoff worthy, the loss to Clemson is a huge hurdle. For the Cardinals to have a chance at being conference champs, Clemson has to drop two conference games, which is a tall order. Although, stranger things have happened in the ACC. Louisville's best chance at a playoff berth might be to get in as a non-conference champ. There are two ways for that to occur:
- A multi-loss Coastal champ defeats Clemson in the ACC title game.
- Clemson wins the ACC title game, but loses to South Carolina, and maybe even one conference game along the way. They would be 11-2, the Coastal champ would be 10-3 at best, and Louisville would be 11-1.
Two teams from one conference?
I don't see a lot of scenarios where one conference can get two teams into the CFP. First of all, I think it would require Washington to lose a couple of games, so the Pac-12 doesn't have any teams with fewer than 1 loss, maybe even 2 across the board. As mentioned above, the Big Ten schedule is structured in such a way that the strongest teams all play each other, so they would knock each other out.
Even then, the pool of non-conference champs is really small. I think the only teams (outside of the ones already penciled in) that have a chance of getting to the Playoff without winning their conference would be Tennessee, Texas A&M, or Louisville. Tennessee is a long shot now, with two losses from the opposite division.
The Big 12?
At this point, the only chance for the Big 12 to crack the top four would be with an undefeated team, which leaves them with just Baylor and West Virginia. The problem with the Big 12 is strength of schedule. A 12-0 Baylor would not have a quality win in the group. Their out of conference schedule is trash, and even the best teams they would beat in conference already have multiple losses. Plus, with all of the off the field issues at Baylor, I'm sure the committee will try their best to keep Baylor and all of the associated drama and media attention out of the Playoff. Pretty much, Baylor needs to be the only undefeated team in December to have a chance to play on New Year's Eve.
A 12-0 West Virginia would have the same in conference schedule problems, but their nonconference slate has a bit more prestige than Baylor's. They are starting to creep up in the polls and getting noticed.
Still, even an undefeated Big 12 team probably won't make the CFP if all of the other conference champions have a combined 0 losses.
Houston?
Apologies to the Cougars, but they also lost the wrong game. They had a schedule set up perfectly for inclusion in the Playoff, and started off strong with a big win over Oklahoma. The game against Louisville late in the season could also have been big. But a loss to division opponent Navy could keep Houston out of their conference's title game.
The best conference?
Again, we find ourselves asking this question, but we're finally reaching the point where it's not an automatic answer from everyone leaning towards the SEC.
The SEC is starting to devolve into "Alabama and everyone else." Tennessee and Florida are putting on a good show in the East, but then Georgia is losing to teams like Vanderbilt. The West isn't as mighty, and we'll see how much of a fight Texas A&M puts up next week.
The Big Ten is showing some depth, with Ohio State and Michigan just bulldozing their way through the season. Nebraska and Wisconsin look promising. Unfortunately, Michigan State just can't seem to get it together this year.
The ACC is starting to get some respect back. Some folks keep referring to the Atlantic as the stronger division. But in reality, they just have the top teams in the conference. FSU and Clemson have been keeping the conference afloat the last few years, and Louisville is up there this year. However, the other four teams aren't that great. Meanwhile, the Coastal has always been competitive amongst themselves, and I would rank most of those teams in between #3 and #4 in the Atlantic. This year, we've seen an upgrade in the coaching ranks of the Coastal, with Virginia Tech and Miami getting new coaches, and both of those schools being right there in the mix at the beginning. Unfortunately, those teams have lost too many games between them to make Thursday's matchup a top 15 affair, but it will still determine which school will still have a shot at taking the division.
The Pac-12 was primed to take over the SEC's top spot, but they're beating themselves up a bit too much.
Overall . . .
We have a fascinating season. While there is a general consensus of the top four, there is still a lot of football to be played, and it could change drastically. I look forward to continuing the weekly wrap ups and documenting the conference races.
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