Tuesday, October 4, 2016

What if the ACC used divisional records for champs?

Thanks to some internet discussion, I came up with a thought exercise.  Most conferences use conference records to determine their representatives for the conference championship game.  But, what if divisional records were given preference?  In theory, this could level the playing field a bit, depending on the luck of the draw of cross divisional games.

As usual, let's take a look at the ACC.
Currently, the first criteria is conference record, and then it goes to head-to-head.

In this scenario, the divisional record would be first, followed by head-to-head, and then conference record.

The first conference championship game was in 2005.  Back in those days, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville had not yet joined, and Maryland was still a member.  There were only 12 teams, 6 in each division.  Therefore, each team played 5 divisional games, and 3 cross-divisional games.

2005 

actual matchup:  Florida State vs. Virginia Tech

AtlanticDivisionalConference.Overall
Boston College4-15-38-3
Florida State3-25-37-4
Clemson3-24-47-4
Wake Forest2-33-54-7
NC State2-33-56-5
Maryland1-43-55-6

Boston College would have taken the Atlantic on best record, even though they lost to FSU.

CoastalDivisionalConference.Overall
Virginia Tech4-17-110-1
Miami4-16-29-2
Georgia Tech3-25-37-4
North Carolina2-34-45-6
UVA2-33-56-5
Duke0-50-81-10

Miami would actually take the Coastal by virtue of the head-to-head against VT.

2005 hypothetical matchup:  Boston College vs. Miami.


2006 

This was the first 12 game regular season.

actual matchup:  Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech

AtlanticDivisionalConference.Overall
Wake Forest4-16-210-2
Boston College3-25-39-3
Maryland3-25-38-4
Clemson3-25-38-4
NC State2-32-63-6
Florida State0-53-56-6

Wake Forest has the best record across the board.

CoastalDivisionalConference.Overall
Georgia Tech5-07-19-3
Virginia Tech4-16-210-2
UVA3-24-45-7
Miami2-33-56-6
North Carolina1-42-63-9
Duke0-50-80-12

Georgia Tech had the best divisional and conference records.

2006 hypothetical matchup:  Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech.




2007

actual matchup:  Boston College vs. Virginia Tech

AtlanticDivisionalConference.Overall
Clemson4-15-39-3
Boston College3-26-210-2
Wake Forest3-25-38-4
Florida State3-24-47-5
Maryland2-33-56-6
NC State0-53-55-7

Clemson would win with best divisional record, even though they lost to Boston College.

In the Coastal, Virginia Tech went 7-1 in conference, with the only loss coming to Boston College.  Therefore, they swept the division.

2007 hypothetical matchup:  Clemson vs. Virginia Tech.


Spoiler warning -- for the next four years, it's going to be boring, because the outcomes are the same.

2008

actual matchup:  Boston College vs. Virginia Tech

In both divisions, there was only one team with a 4-1 divisional record.

2008 hypothetical matchup:  Boston College vs. Virginia Tech.


2009

actual matchup:  Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

In the Atlantic, Clemson and Boston College both finished with a 4-1 divisional record, but Clemson won the head-to-head.  In the Coastal, Georgia Tech had the best record at 4-1.

2009 hypothetical matchup:  Clemson vs. Georgia Tech.


2010

actual matchup:  Florida State vs. Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech swept all of their conference games.  Florida State went 6-2 in conference, with a 4-1 divisional record.  They were the only Atlantic team to only lose 1 division game.

2010 hypothetical matchup:  Florida State vs. Virginia Tech.


2011

actual matchup:  Clemson vs. Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech's only loss that season was to Clemson, meaning they swept the Coastal.  Clemson was 6-2 in conference, 4-1 in division.  Wake Forest was the only other team with a 4-1 division record (5-3 in conference), but lost the head-to-head against Clemson.

2011 hypothetical matchup:  Clemson vs. Virginia Tech.


2012

actual matchup:  Florida State vs. UNC  Miami  Georgia Tech

I'm not going to look at this particular year, because of sanctions that actually kept the top two Coastal teams out of contention.  The Atlantic was clear cut, as FSU and Clemson both only had one conference/divisional loss, and were the only teams in the division with such a record.  Since FSU beat Clemson head-to-head, they were divisional champs.

Starting in 2013, the ACC expanded to 14 teams (and then replaced Maryland with Louisville the following season), which changed the conference schedule to 6 divisional and 2 cross-divisional games.  Also, starting in 2013, the Atlantic champion was undefeated through the regular season, so it doesn't matter which metric we use.

2013

actual matchup:  Florida State vs. Duke


CoastalDivisionalConference.Overall
Virginia Tech5-15-38-4
Georgia Tech4-25-37-5
Duke4-26-210-2
Miami4-25-39-3
North Carolina2-44-46-6
Pitt2-43-56-6
UVA0-60-82-10

While Virginia Tech couldn't do much against the Atlantic, they had the best divisional record.

2013 hypothetical matchup:  Florida State vs. Virginia Tech.


2014

actual matchup:  Florida State vs. Georgia Tech


CoastalDivisionalConference.Overall
North Carolina4-24-46-6
Georgia Tech4-26-210-2
Virginia Tech3-33-56-6
Duke3-35-39-3
Miami3-33-56-6
Pitt2-44-46-6
UVA2-43-55-7

UNC beat GT on the head-to-head, and would have advance to the championship game.

2014 hypothetical matchup:  Florida State vs. North Carolina.


2015

actual matchup:  Clemson vs. North Carolina

Both teams came into the ACCCG with an 8-0 conference record, so they earned the spot on every metric.

2015 hypothetical matchup:  Clemson vs. North Carolina.


So, we have ten seasons worth of data (since I'm avoiding 2012).



Actual
appearance
Hypothetical
appearances
Difference
Florida State43-1
Wake Forest110
Boston College220
Clemson34+1
Virginia Tech550
Georgia Tech32-1
Duke10-1
North Carolina12+1
Miami01+1

Wake Forest, Boston College, and Virginia Tech still would have made the same number of appearances.  Although, BC and VT would have been in different games.

The biggest winner is probably Miami, who actually would have made an appearance.  Clemson and UNC also gain extra appearances.

The biggest loser is Duke, who never would have made an appearance.  FSU and GT also lost appearances with this metric.

And for NC State, Maryland/Louisville, UVA, Pitt, and Syracuse, the different metric would not have mattered.

2 comments:

  1. For what it's worth, in 2012, each of the three Coastal teams had a 5-3 record, a 3-2 Coastal record, and 1-1 vs each other. So while we can't say for sure, it's quite possible the same result would have happened (UNC on NCAA sanctions, Miami with a chance to self-impose, and 6-6 GT in the game by default).

    Great exercise, one I've pondered myself. Care if I follow up with one for the SEC? I've heard some of their coaches advocate for division record, so I suspect we'll have some neat quirks there.

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  2. SEC? Go for it!

    I think the divisional record metric would be better appreciated now than in the 12 team league. Back then, it would have been a really big swing if someone swept their division, but did poorly in the other games. At least now, sweeping your division will guarantee a bowl.

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