Week 9 wrap up

Chaos reigns, sort of.  A lot of shakeups going on, and a lot of teams officially getting eliminated from contention.  And yes, we know that some of the scenarios are ridiculous, but until teams are officially eliminated, we're keeping track of what keeps them in contention.

I am no longer listing tiebreakers over teams that are out of contention, since they don't matter.

ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
Clemson (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Louisville.

Needs help:
Louisville (5-1) needs two Clemson losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Syracuse.
Wake Forest (2-2) needs an extra Clemson loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Syracuse, but did lose to NC State.
Syracuse (2-2) needs two Louisville losses, a Wake Forest loss, and an extra Clemson loss.

Wake Forest and Syracuse can each be eliminated with a loss AND a Clemson win.

Out of contention:

Boston College (1-4) finally won a conference game after a two year drought, but it came too late.  Louisville's win officially knocked BC out of the race.
FSU (2-3) and NC State (1-3) lose out on tiebreakers.  I posted a detailed explanation here, but the short version is even if one of those teams forces a multi team tie at 5-3, neither has enough tiebreakers to come out on top.

Coastal
Magic number: 5

Controls destiny:
Virginia Tech (4-1) has tiebreakers over UNC, Pitt, and Miami.

Needs help:
UNC (4-1) needs a VT loss, but has tiebreakers over Pitt and UVA.
Pitt (2-2) needs 2 UNC losses and 2 VT losses, but has tiebreakers over GT and UVA.
UVA (1-3) needs 2 Pitt losses and 2 UNC losses, but has a tiebreaker over Duke.
Miami (1-3) needs 3 UNC losses and 3 VT losses. They have a tiebreaker over GT.

Just start winning:
Georgia Tech (2-3) lost to Miami and Pitt.
Duke (0-4) lost to UVA and GT.  They will be eliminated with either a loss OR a win by UNC or VT.  Since their next game is against VT, they could be knocked out both ways at once.

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Louisville, UNC, VT
One win away:  Florida State, Wake Forest, Pitt, GT
Two wins away:  NC State, Miami, Syracuse, Boston College
Edge of no bowl:  UVA

Atlantic vs. Coastal:  Atlantic 6-3.
Atlantic wins: Wake Forest over Duke, Clemson over GT, FSU over Miami, Louisville over Duke, Syracuse over VT, Louisville over UVA.
Coastal wins: Georgia Tech over BC, Virginia Tech over BC, UNC over FSU.


SEC
East
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
Florida (4-1) has tiebreakers over Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt.  They lost to Tennessee.

Needs help:
Tennessee (2-3) needs 2 Florida losses.  They have tiebreakers over Florida and Georgia, but lost to South Carolina.
Kentucky (4-2) needs 2 Florida losses.  They have tiebreakers over SC and Vanderbilt.

Just start winning:
Vanderbilt (1-3) has a tiebreaker over Georgia, but lost to SC and Florida.
Georgia (2-4) lost to Tennessee and Florida, but has tiebreakers over Missouri and South Carolina.
South Carolina (2-4) has tiebreakers over Tennessee and Vanderbilt, but lost to Georgia and Kentucky.
Missouri (0-4) lost to Kentucky, Georgia, and Florida.

West
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
Alabama (5-0) has tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Arkansas.

Needs help:
Texas A&M (4-1) needs two Alabama losses.  They have tiebreakers over Auburn and Arkansas.
Auburn (4-1) needs a Texas A&M loss, but has tiebreakers over LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State.
LSU (3-1) needs an Auburn loss, but has a tiebreaker over Mississippi State.

Just start winning:
Arkansas (1-3) lost to Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M.
Mississippi State (1-3) lost to LSU and Auburn.

Both teams would be eliminated with a loss OR Alabama win.

Out of contention:
Ole Miss (1-4) hit the magic number.

Bowl eligible:  Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida
One win away:  Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas
Two wins away:  Georgia, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
Edge of no bowl:  Missouri


B1G
East
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
Michigan (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Penn State.

Needs help:
Penn State (4-1) needs two Michigan losses.  They have tiebreakers over Ohio State and Maryland.
Ohio State (4-1) needs a Penn State loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Indiana.
Indiana (2-3) needs 3 Ohio State losses, 2 extra Michigan losses, and an extra Penn State loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Maryland.
Maryland (2-3) needs 3 Penn State losses, plus 2 extra losses by Ohio State, and 2 extra losses by Michigan.

Out of contention:
Michigan State (0-5), Rutgers (0-5)

West
Magic number: 6

Controls destiny:
Nebraska (4-1) has tiebreakers over Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois.  They lost to Wisconsin.

Needs help:
Wisconsin (3-2) needs a Nebraska loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa and Nebraska.
Northwestern (3-2) needs two Nebraska losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa.
Iowa (3-2) needs a Northwestern loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Purdue.
Minnesota (3-2) needs an Iowa loss They have a tiebreaker over Illinois.

Just start winning:
Purdue (1-4) lost to Nebraska and Iowa, but has a tiebreaker over Illinois.
Illinois (1-4) lost to Minnesota, Nebraska, and Purdue.

Bowl eligible:  Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
One win away:  Iowa, Maryland
Two wins away: Northwestern, Indiana
Edge of no bowl:  Rutgers, Michigan State, Illinois


Pac-12
North
Magic number: 4
Based on records, it should be 5, but since Washington and Washington State play each other, we know that one team is getting at least 6 wins.

Controls destiny:
Washington (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Stanford.
Washington State (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Stanford.

Needs help:
Cal (2-3) cannot gain control, but they could force a tie at 6-3 against the winner of Washington/Washington State.  They are out with a loss OR a Washington State win.

Out of contention:
Oregon State (1-4) and Oregon (1-4) hit the magic number.
Stanford (3-3) would need both Washington and Washington State to lose out to gain control.  Since that cannot happen, they would have to rely on tiebreakers.  The only possible tie would be a three way tie, and Stanford is 0-2 against the Washington schools.

South
Magic number:  5
Based on record, it should be 6, but Utah and Colorado have yet to play, guaranteeing one of them a fifth win.

Controls destiny:
Utah (4-2) has tiebreakers over USC, UCLA, and Arizona.
Colorado (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Arizona State, but lost to USC.

Needs help:
USC (4-2) needs a Utah loss and a Colorado loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Colorado.

Just start winning:
Arizona State (2-4) lost to Colorado and USC.  They have a tiebreaker over UCLA.
UCLA (1-4) lost to Arizona State and Utah.

Out of contention:
Arizona (0-5) lost to Utah and USC.

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, Utah, Colorado
One win away:  USC, Stanford, Arizona State
Two wins away:  California
Edge of no bowl:  Oregon State, Arizona


Big 12
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
Oklahoma (5-0) has tiebreakers over TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Texas.
Baylor (3-1) has a tiebreaker over Oklahoma State, but lost to Texas.

Needs help:
Oklahoma State (4-1) needs a Baylor loss.  They have tiebreakers over Texas and WVU.
West Virginia (3-1) needs an Oklahoma State loss.  They have tiebreakers over Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech.

TCU (2-2) needs 3 Oklahoma losses and 3 WVU losses.

Kansas State (3-2) needs 3 WVU losses, plus extra losses from Baylor and Oklahoma.  They have tiebreakers over Texas Tech and Texas.

Just start winning:

Texas Tech (1-3) lost to Oklahoma, WVU, and Kanasa State.

Texas (2-3) lost to Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma.  They beat Baylor.

Out of contention:
Kansas (0-5) lost to Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and TCU.
Iowa State (0-5) lost to TCU, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State.

Bowl eligible:  Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
One win away:  Kansas State
Two wins away:  Texas, Texas Tech, TCU
No bowl:  Iowa State, Kansas