2017 Season: Post-September Thoughts

With the first month of college football being 5 weeks (plus a few Week 0 games), I've had a little extra time to shape some initial opinions on the season thus far.



Top Teams
How has all of the power in each conference become so consolidated?!? Alabama in the SEC, Clemson in the ACC, Oklahoma in the Big 12!

Granted, there are challengers that could emerge (Georgia, Miami, TCU). Meanwhile, the Big Ten and PAC-12 seem to have multiple challengers for the top spot, or they could neutralize each other. So far, it seems like the 4th year of the CFP Era is turning into much of the same we've seen of the first three.

Pleasant Surprise
For me, Georgia would have to be one of the more positive examples of exceeded expectations after the first month. A road win over Notre Dame, a solid win over Mississippi State, and an enormous shutout over Tennessee make the Bulldogs a legitimate challenger so far. However, don't think Florida won't be a challenge in the annual Jacksonville matchup - they always are, seemingly. And that Auburn-Georgia showdown in mid-November could be a high-stakes affair as well.

If Only...
Why, ACC, did you slip up to Tennessee and South Carolina in Week 1?!? Georgia Tech and NC State are seemingly solid teams that could contend for a good bowl spot. But just how much better would things be looking for these teams - and the conference - if both had a "0" in the loss column instead of one, each, to a team that might be struggling for bowl eligibility by season's end?

Playoff Contenders
Right now, the top 3 teams have got to be Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma. I got to see Clemson in-person and left Blacksburg highly impressed with their talent and skill. The Tigers have the best resume hands-down through 5 games. Oklahoma may have the best win - a dominating one at Ohio State. And Alabama beat a full-strength Florida State, while dominating lesser teams. 1A, 1B, 1C as far as I'm concerned.

The 4th spot is a toss-up, seemingly between Penn State and Georgia. The Bulldogs probably have the edge on resume, while the Lions have been more dominant with their so-so schedule.

7 other Power 5 (making it 12 total) teams are undefeated (Washington the highest-ranked of them in the AP Poll), all with their real tests still to come. For any of them, it should be "win and in", but the "win" part will prove challenging as the meat of the season arrives.

New Year's Six Contenders
With the Rose and Sugar Bowls being the semi-finals, this is the year with the most true at-large spots available (5 - not including the Group of Five automatic berth or the two Orange Bowl berths). This bodes well for the Big Ten right now, with a large contingent of highly-ranked teams. The SEC is in good shape with Georgia and Auburn lurking, while the ACC and PAC-12 each have two Top 12 teams at the moment. It's still early, and so I can't rule any P5 conference out of the at-large picture.

Meanwhile, in the Group of Five, there are a handful of teams playing really well right now. San Diego State has a solid win over Stanford, UCF a big one over Texas-beating Maryland, and USF with the preseason love. The two Florida-based American teams square off on Black Friday in Orlando, while the Aztecs appear to be a decided favorite to win out in the Mountain West. Should both conferences produce an undefeated champ, might one of them nab an at-large NY6 spot? Recall, Western Michigan was able to make it to 15 last year with a considerably less impressive schedule.

October Look-Ahead
With all of the kickoff games and some key early conference games, September was most certainly a blast. The month of November is where everything gets finalized, but it's this middle month that becomes particularly noteworthy with its shake-ups. Consider Penn State last year, who went from nowhere to Big Ten-leading due to its October upset of Ohio State. Or two years ago, when we saw Michigan State-Michigan in one of the craziest finishes of all time, followed by more stunners courtesy of FSU-Georgia Tech and Miami-Duke.

October games in 2017 that look to be season-defining include:

• Early proof of contenders vs. pretenders in the PAC-12 on 10/7: Washington State at Oregon, and Stanford at Utah
• The ACC Coastal beginning to take shape 10/14 with Georgia Tech at Miami
• Penn State's back-to-back weeks against Michigan and AT Ohio State (10/21 and 10/28)
• Notre Dame hosting USC 10/21 to determine who's in the better position to rebound
• Another 10/21 possibility - UCF at Navy. Both teams could be undefeated...
• The Florida-Georgia "cocktail party" in Jacksonville (10/28), likely to determine the SEC East