Bowl ineligible teams with an asterisk are sitting at 7 losses, and might be able to make a bowl depending on availability and APR rankings.
The magic number is back. As I explain every year, that's determined by taking the team with the most wins in the division and adding the remaining number of games to their loss column, then adding one. Any team that has the magic number or higher in the loss column is automatically out.
We have a new category for each division - "out of control". These are the teams that can only rely on multi-team ties with the number of losses that that team currently has.
ACC
Coastal
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
Miami (5-0) has a tiebreaker over GT. They can actually clinch with a win and a UVA loss.
VT (3-1) only has tiebreakers over non-contenders. They will be eliminated with a loss.
Needs help:
GT (3-2) needs Miami loss to lose out, and an extra VT loss. They have a tiebreaker over Pitt. They will be eliminated with a Miami win.
UVA (2-2) needs an extra Miami loss. They will be eliminated with a loss and a Miami win.
Out of control:
Pitt (2-3) has a tiebreaker over UVA. They will be eliminated with a loss or Miami win.
Out of contention:
UNCheat (0-6), Duke (1-5)Atlantic
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
NC State (4-0) has tiebreakers over FSU, Louisville, and Syracuse.
Clemson (5-1) has tiebreakers over Louisville and BC. They lost to Syracuse.
Needs help:
Syracuse (2-2) needs three NC State losses and a Clemson loss.
Out of control:
Wake Forest (2-3) has a tiebreaker over BC. They will be eliminated with a Clemson win.
Boston College (3-3) will be eliminated with a Clemson win.
BC and WF do not play conference games next week.
Out of contention:
Florida State (2-4), Louisville (2-4)
Bowl eligible: Clemson, NC State, VT, Miami
One win away: UVA, Louisville, BC, WF
One loss away from no bowl: FSU
Not bowl eligible: UNCheat
SEC
East
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
Georgia (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Florida. They can clinch the division with a win (over USCe) and a Kentucky loss (to Ole Miss).
Needs help:
Kentucky (3-2) needs an extra Georgia loss. They have a tiebreaker over South Carolina, but lost to Florida. They will be eliminated with a loss and a Georgia win.
South Carolina (4-2) needs a Kentucky loss and an extra Georgia loss. They will be eliminated with a loss to Georgia.
Out of control:
Florida (3-3) has a tiebreaker over Kentucky. They will be eliminated with a loss or Georgia win.
Out of contention:
Tennessee (0-5), Missouri (0-4), Vanderbilt (0-5)
West
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
Alabama (5-0) has tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Arkansas.
LSU (3-1) has a tiebreaker over Auburn, but lost to Mississippi State.
Needs help:
Auburn (4-1) needs an LSU loss, but has a tiebreaker over Mississippi State.
Mississippi State (3-2) needs two Auburn losses, plus extra losses by Alabama. They have a tiebreaker over LSU and Texas A&M.
Texas A&M (3-2) needs three Alabama losses and a Mississippi State loss.
Out of contention:
Ole Miss (got caught cheating), Arkansas (1-4)
Bowl eligible: Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State
One win away: Texas A&M
No bowl: Ole Miss
The Championship of Life was on a bye this week. Alabama will challenge LSU for the title next weekend.
B1G
East
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
Ohio State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Penn State, Maryland, and Rutgers.
Michigan State (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Michigan. Their loss is cross-divisional.
Needs help:
Penn State (4-1) needs two OSU losses. They have a tiebreaker over Michigan.
Michigan (3-2) needs two Michigan State losses, and two Penn State losses, plus an extra OSU loss. They have a tiebreaker over Rutgers.
Rutgers (2-3) needs OSU to lose out, plus extra losses from Penn State and Michigan State.
Maryland (2-3) needs OSU to lose out, plus two extra losses each from Penn State and Michigan State.
Loser of Maryland at Rutgers will be eliminated with an Ohio State win.
Out of contention:
Indiana (0-5)
West
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
Wisconsin (5-0) has tiebreakers over Northwestern, Nebraska, Illinois, and Purdue.
Needs help:
Northwestern (3-2) needs three Wisconsin losses. They have a tiebreaker over Iowa.Nebraska (3-2) needs three Wisconsin losses. They have a tiebreaker over Illinois and Purdue.
Iowa (2-3) needs two extra losses by Wisconsin. They have tiebreaker over Illinois.
Out of control:
Purdue (1-4) needs three Wisconsin losses.
Illinois (1-4) needs two Nebraska losses and two extra losses by Wisconsin.
Both teams will be eliminated with a loss or Wisconsin win. They play each other next week.
Out of contention:
Minnesota (0-5)
Bowl eligible: Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan
One win away: Northwestern, Iowa
One loss away from no bowl: Illinois
Pac-12
North
Magic number: 6
Controls destiny:
Washington State (4-2) has a tiebreaker over Oregon State and Oregon. They lost to Cal.
Washington (3-1) has a tiebreaker over Cal.
Stanford (3-2) has a tiebreaker over Oregon.
Needs help:
Oregon (2-4) needs three Stanford losses, three Washington State losses, and two extra Washington losses. They have a tiebreaker over Cal.
Out of control:
Cal (1-5) has a tiebreaker over Washington State.
Oregon State (0-5) lost to Washington and Washington State.
The loser of Oregon State at Cal will be eliminated. The winner will be eliminated with a Washington State win.
South
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
USC (5-1) has tiebreakers over Utah and Arizona State.
Arizona (4-1) has tiebreakers over Colorado and UCLA, but lost to Utah.
Needs help:
Arizona State (3-2) needs two USC losses. They have a tiebreaker over Utah.
UCLA (2-2) needs 2 Arizona losses. They have a tiebreaker over Colorado.
Out of control:
Utah (1-4) has a tiebreaker over Arizona. They will be eliminated with a loss or USC win.
Colorado (2-4) lost to UCLA and Arizona. They will be eliminated with a loss or USC win.
Bowl eligible: Washington, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona
One win away: Oregon, Colorado
No bowl: Oregon State*
Big 12
Controls destiny:
Iowa State (4-1) has tiebreakers over TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Kansas, but lost to Texas.
TCU (4-1) has tiebreakers over Oklahoma State, WVU, Kansas, and Kansas State, but lost to Iowa State.
Oklahoma (4-1) has tiebreakers over Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas, but lost to Iowa State.
Oklahoma State (4-1) has tiebreakers over WVU, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor, but lost to TCU.
If any of these teams win out, they should be guaranteed a top two finish in conference, which will get them to the title game.
Needs help:
West Virginia (3-2) has tiebreakers over Baylor, Kansas, and Texas Tech, but lost to TCU and OkSt.
Texas (3-2) has tiebreakers over Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, but lost to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Kansas State (2-3) has tiebreakers over Baylor and Kansas, but lost to Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU.
Texas Tech (1-4) has a tiebreaker over Kansas, but lost to Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and WVU.
Just start winning:
Kansas (0-5) lost to K-State, Iowa State, WVU, TCU, and Texas Tech.
Baylor (0-5) lost to Texas, WVU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and K-State.
Kansas plays Baylor next week, and the loser will be officially out. The winner of the game will be out if TCU or Iowa State wins.
Basically, I am not comfortable declaring a team out of contention until there are at least two teams with better records than they can possibly achieve. Right now, it's too much math and hypotheticals for me to determine if it's possible to see how the 4-1 teams will project, short of knowing that the Oklahoma/OK State winner will be 5-1.
Bowl eligible: TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
One game away: WVU
No bowl: Baylor, Kansas
No comments:
Post a Comment