2019 Season: Halftime Report

Like Chip, I've spent some time away from this place over the past several months. Not as "busy" as Chip per se, but just not around the blog-o-sphere.

But in any case, it's great to be back - and just in time to share some thoughts on the first half of the 2019 season.



Longer Season
Thanks to the combination of a compelling Week 0 game, along with the "extra" week in the regular season calendar, this season has been nice and spaced out! Several teams have already enjoyed a bye week, with another one still to come. And because of the extra spacing, there are quite a few undefeated teams!

Admittedly, there were a few weeks in there with little drama (akin to a "filler" episode of a long-season TV show). But thankfully, we're getting into the heart of the season where the action is!

CFP Race
Last year really felt like "Alabama and the Rest (of Y'all, as Dabo put it)". I cannot express just how relieved I am to see a bigger "top" of college football in 2019.

In addition to Alabama and Clemson, we've got LSU, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all with arguments that they should be #1 right now. Add in Wisconsin and Penn State, and even a few 1-loss teams like Oregon, Georgia (even with their bad loss), and Notre Dame, and the CFP race is far from determined.

At this stage, all signs seem to be pointing to 4 conference champs. But when has the halfway point ever truly reflected the end of the season?

• 2014: Mississippi State was unquestionably the #1 team, with all those SEC teams ranked so highly!
• 2015: Ohio State had all that talent, but they just had to get it together. At one point in October, neither Alabama nor Clemson were in the Top 10!
• 2016: (this season defies the point I'm trying to make; all 4 CFP participants were among the Top 6 throughout October)
• 2017: Watch out for Penn State and TCU! 2 of the Top 4!!
• 2018: Forget about Oklahoma and that non-existent defense! We gotta have Georgia and Ohio State in the Top 4!

Last weekend's Georgia-South Carolina game, along with the Clemson-UNC game, proved that there is not some "unbeatable tier" at the top. We could see some more close calls / shake-ups before all is said and done!

G5 NY6 Race

I was hoping for (and expecting) a more competitive NY6 race this year. The Cotton Bowl is locked-in as the G5 landing spot, and I can see at least 3 conferences in contention at this point.

• The American and one of the season's great surprises: SMU. Keep goin' Ponies...let's see how far that run can go! And don't sleep on Cincy - yes, they got hammered by Ohio State, but I think it was really a product of the Bearcats getting full attention of an elite team. 
• The Mountain West and its collection of P5 wins. With Boise State still unbeaten, it's hard to imagine the Broncos not getting its 2nd NY6 bid if they stay the course.
• And how about App State of the Sun Belt? A nice win over UNC, and a chance coming up of knocking off South Carolina! Win this one, stay perfect, and the debate should be a doozy!

So far, we haven't had the problem of more than one finishing undefeated. And I highly doubt we will this year. Even if the CFP committee rankings don't reflect it with a lofty number, I think any of the above teams will be a worthy adversary in the Cotton Bowl.

Orange Bowl Race

With the Sugar and Rose Bowls so clear-cut, the NY6 bowl of greatest intrigue is the Orange Bowl. The plethora of SEC & Big Ten teams + Notre Dame are all firmly in the running for the "opponent" half - and any of these teams should provide a quality Top 10 team to South Bend. If Notre Dame runs the table, I cannot imagine the 11-1 Irish not in the Orange Bowl....unless....

The other half - the ACC half - is as big a mess as you'll find. Currently, there are NO ranked teams beyond Clemson (nice going, UVA and Wake /s)!!! Hope is not dead, as this was the exact situation in mid-2014 (FSU was the only ranked team at one point) before a solid finish (Top 10 for 11-win GT; Top 15 for 10-win Clemson). My point being: a 9-3 or 10-2 ACC team will be ranked; we just have to wait and see if someone can attain it!!

As for that "unless" part, would the Orange Bowl swap out Notre Dame to avoid a rematch (with, say, UVA or Louisville, should they get the ACC's spot)? I know they have the possibility in their "selection criteria", but that would be unfortunate for the ACC's financial bottom line if they couldn't take advantage of the Irish earning the Orange Bowl spot.

Conclusion

We got some monster matchups in the next few weeks, just in time for the CFP Committee to begin its weekly rankings. Games I'm looking forward to before that first release on 11/5 include:

• UNC at Virginia Tech. Call it bias, but hear me out. Sometimes things just "click" for a team after a disastrous start and then a few straight conference wins (think 2010 Virginia Tech, or 2015 UNC). The winner of this game could very well find its groove and have something to say about salvaging a good season yet (and, with a few breaks, that Orange Bowl spot)!
• Michigan at Penn State. This could be "eliminator" for Michigan, or the "exposer" for Penn State. Honestly, either result wouldn't surprise me. If Michigan wins, chaulk that Wisconsin blowout to the Badgers just being that good!
• Wisconsin at Ohio State. In one sense, it might not mean that much, as these two teams could very well meet again in Indy. But the tone/margin of the game could tell us a ton about just how good these two teams really are. And whomever wins, get ready for the "both teams 12-1" hypothetical discussions...
• Auburn at LSU. Auburn started off so well with that win against Oregon. They didn't look so hot against Florida. Will this be another one of those "weird" Auburn games that lead to a rankings shake-up, or is LSU really that legit?!?
• Florida vs Georgia. The annual Jacksonville affair will tell us who that SEC East contender is - and give us an idea of just how much CFP chaos we can anticipate from the whole conference.