2020 Week 11 wrap up

I hate to say it, but it's getting close to the point where I'm almost ready to throw in the towel on this whole exercise of following conference races.  Between the Pac-12 barely being able to start, the Big Ten not allowing any flexibility, and VT dropping some games they shouldn't, Sunday mornings are getting a little rough.

Honestly, this list is a mess, and I'm probably missing some things.  But it's not worth the mental gymnastics to figure out if a 3 or 4 loss team still can win their conference, when in reality, one game next weekend will fix that for us.

I'm changing up the percentages to show the minimum and maximum winning percentages to better compare the ACC teams.  If there are 2 or more teams with a minimum winning percentage higher than a team's maximum percentage, then that team is out of contention.

ACC
Notre Dame (7-0) - 70%-100%
    W:  Duke, FSU, Louisville, Pitt, GT, Clemson, BC
    L:  none
Clemson (6-1) - 60%-90%
    W:  Wake Forest, uva, Miami, GT, Syracuse, BC
    L:  Notre Dame
Miami (6-1) - 60%-90%
    W:  Louisville, FSU, Pitt, uva, NC State, VT
    L:  Clemson
UNC (6-2) - 60%-80%
    W:  Syracuse, BC, VT, NC State, Duke, WF
    L:  FSU, uva
Virginia Tech (4-3) - 40%-70%
    W:  NC State, Duke, BC, Louisville
    L:  UNC, Wake Forest, Miami
NC State (5-3) - 50%-70%
    W:  Wake Forest, Pitt, uva, Duke, FSU
    L:  Virginia Tech, UNC, Miami
Wake Forest (3-3) - 30%-70%
    W:  uva, VT, Syracuse
    L:  Clemson, NC State, UNC

Only in contention for the #2 seed:
Boston College (4-4) - 40%-60%
    W:  Duke, Pitt, GT, Syracuse
    L:  UNC, VT, Clemson, ND
Pitt (3-4) - 30%-60%
    W:  Syracuse, Louisville, FSU
    L:  NC State, BC, Miami, ND

ND's worst possible record is 7-3, meaning that any team with 4 or more losses cannot be the #1 seed.  Any of these teams will be eliminated with a loss OR a win by Clemson, Miami, or UNC.

With three teams already sitting at 6 wins, any team with 5 or more losses is completely eliminated.

Out of contention:

Georgia Tech (2-4) - 20%-60% 
Virginia (3-4) - 20%-60%
Louisville (1-6) - 10%-50%
Florida State (1-6) - 10%-50%
Duke (1-6) - 10%-40%
Syracuse (1-6) - 10-40% 

Big 12
Iowa State (5-1)
    W:  TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor
    L:  Oklahoma State
Kansas State (4-2)
    W:  Oklahoma, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas
    L:  WVU, OK State
Oklahoma State (4-1)
    W:  WVU, Kansas, Iowa State, K-State
    L:  Texas
Oklahoma (4-2)
    W:  Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas
    L:  Kansas State, Iowa State
Texas (4-2)
    W:  Texas Tech, Baylor, OK State, WVU
    L:  TCU, Oklahoma
WVU (4-3)
    W:  Baylor, Kansas, K-State, TCU
    L:  Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
TCU (3-4)
    W:  Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech
    L:  Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, WVU

Out of contention:
Texas Tech (2-5)
Baylor (1-5)
Kansas (0-6)

The teams in the Big 12 championship game will have to have at least 5 wins (out of 9 games).  Iowa State is already there, and at least one of the Oklahoma schools will get to five by virtue of playing each other.

SEC
Since the SEC is keeping their divisions, and only expanded their cross-divisional schedule, I'm keeping the "controls destiny" format, but tweaking it.  I'm only listing division teams in the win or loss column, as those are the ones affecting the tiebreakers.  The SEC is playing 10 conference games this year, so it will take longer for some teams to clinch or get eliminated.

East
Controls destiny:
Florida (6-1)
    W:  South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia
    L:  none

Needs help:
Georgia (4-2)
    W:  Tennessee, Kentucky
    L:  Florida
    Needs:  losses by Florida (2)
Missouri (2-3)
    W:  Kentucky
    L:  Tennesssee, Florida
    Needs:  losses by Florida (3)
Kentucky (3-4)
    W:  Tennessee, Vandy
    L:  Missouri, Georgia
    Needs:  losses by Missouri (2), additional losses by Florida and Georgia
Tennessee (2-4)
    W:  South Carolina, Missouri
    L:  Georgia, Kentucky
    Needs:  losses by Georgia (3), Missouri, and Kentucky, Florida to lose out

Out of contention:
South Carolina (2-5)
Vanderbilt (0-6)

West
Controls destiny:
Alabama (6-0)
    W:  Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
    L:  none

Needs help:
Texas A&M (5-1)
    W:  Mississippi State, Arkansas
    L:  Alabama
    Needs:  losses by Alabama (2)
Auburn (4-2)
    W:  Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU
    L:  none
    Needs:  additional loss by Alabama
Arkansas (3-4)
    W:  Mississippi State, Ole Miss
    L:  Auburn, Texas A&M
    Needs:  losses by Auburn (2) and Texas A&M (4), additional losses by Alabama (3)
LSU (2-3)
    W:  none
    L:  Mississippi State, Auburn
    Needs:  losses by Auburn (2), additional losses by Texas A&M and Alabama (2)

Out of contention:
Mississippi State (2-4)
Ole Miss (3-4)

Both teams lose on the tiebreaker with Alabama.

Big Ten
The B1G is playing an 8 game schedule.  The following week, everyone will play their counterpart from the opposite division in the same place in the standings.  (So, 1 vs. 1, 7 vs. 7, etc.)  Since cancelled games will not be rescheduled, any cancelled divisional matchups will be listed as "No Contest" to keep track of for tiebreaking purposes.

Big Ten teams need to play 6 games to be eligible for the title game.  However, if the average number of conference games decreases, then a team must remain within two games of the average to be eligible.  (Example - if everyone cancels at least one game, the average drops to 7, so a team only needs to play 5 games to be eligible.)  The total number of conference games listed below is double the real number, because we're looking at what each individual team plays.

Conference total:  106 (out of 112)
Conference average:  7.57

East
Controls Destiny:
Indiana (4-0) - total:  8
     W:  PSU, Rutgers, Michigan, Michigan State
      L:  none
Ohio State (3-0) - total:  7
     W:  PSU, Rutgers
      L:  none
      No contest:  Maryland

Needs help:
Maryland (2-1) - total:  7
     W:  PSU
      L:  none
      No contest:  Ohio State
      Needs:  loss by Ohio State
Michigan State (1-3) - total:  8
     W:  Michigan
      L:  Rutgers, Indiana
      Needs:  loss by Rutgers, additional losses by Indiana (2) and Ohio State (2)
Michigan (1-3) - total:  8
     W:  none
      L:  MSU, Indiana
      Needs:  losses by Indiana (3) and Michigan State, additional losses by Ohio State

Out of control:
Rutgers (1-3) - total:  8
     W:  Michigan State
      L:  Indiana, Ohio State
      Needs:  Indiana and Ohio State to lose out

Out of contention:
Penn State (0-4) - total:  8

West
Controls Destiny:
Northwestern (4-0) - total:  8
     W:  Iowa, Nebraska, Purdue
      L:  none
Wisconsin (2-0) - total:  6
     W:  Illinois
      L:  none
      No contest:  Nebraska, Purdue
      One more cancelled game will eliminate them from contention.

Needs help:
Purdue (2-1) - total:  7
     W:  Iowa, Illinois
      L:  Northwestern
      No contest:  Wisconsin
      Needs:  losses by Northwestern (2), losses or cancellation by Wisconsin
Minnesota (1-3) - total:  8
     W:  Illinois
      L:  Iowa
      Needs:  additional losses by Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin
Iowa (2-2) - total:  8
     W:  Minnesota
      L:  Purdue, Northwestern
      Needs:  losses by Purdue (3) and Northwestern (3), additional loss by Wisconsin
Nebraska (1-2) - total:  7
     W:  none
      L:  Northwestern
      No contest:  Wisconsin
      Needs:  losses by Northwestern (3), additional loss by Purdue, plus Wisconsin losses or cancellation
Illinois (1-3) - total:  8
     W:  none
      L:  Wisconsin, Purdue
      Needs:  losses by Purdue (4), additional losses by Northwestern (2), losses or cancellation by Wisconsin

Pac-12

The Pac-12 is only playing 6 conference games this season.  Teams need to be within one game of the conference average to be eligible.  The Pac-12 has added some games to the schedule to replace multiple cancelled games.

Conference total:  66 (out of 72)
Conference average:  5.5

North
Controls destiny:
Oregon (2-0) - total:  6
     W:  Stanford, Wazzu
      L:  none
Cal (0-1) - total:  5
     W:  none
      L:  none
      No contest:  Washington
Washington (1-0) - total:  5
     W:  Oregon State
      L:  none
      No contest:  Cal

Needs help:
Washington State (1-1) - total:  6
     W:  Oregon State
      L:  Oregon
      Needs:  losses by Oregon (2)
Oregon State (0-2) - total:  6
     W:  none
      L:  Washington State, Washington
      Needs:  losses by Washington State (2)
Stanford (0-2) - total:  6
     W:  none
      L:  Oregon
      Needs:  losses by Oregon (3), additional losses by Cal and Washington

South
Colorado (2-0) - total:  6
     W:  UCLA
      L:  none
USC (2-0) - total:  6
     W:  Arizona State, Arizona
      L:  none

Needs help:
UCLA (1-1) - total:  6
     W:  none
      L:  Colorado
      No contest:  Utah
      Needs:  losses by Colorado (2)
Arizona (0-1) - total:  5
     W:  none
      L:  USC
      No contest:  Utah
      Needs:  losses by USC (2)
Arizona State (0-1) - total:  5
     W:  none
      L:  USC
      Needs:  losses by USC (2)
Utah (0-0) - total:  4
     W:  none
      L:  none
      No contest:  Arizona, UCLA
     Needs:  to play games, and possibly hope for more cancellations to bring the average down.