12/1 Rankings Reaction & Post-Season Look-Ahead

 With the second round of CFP Rankings released, here are my key takeaways & look-aheads.

Playoff

Similar story as last week, now with some more clarity. It's clear that the committee respects Notre Dame, as they moved a UNC team that lost by 14 UP 2 spots!!  And to keep a dominant Alabama team at #1 also shows how much they respect the Tide!

I really don't see there being more than 7 contenders at this point. But in the interest of fun, I'll highlight those 7 plus a few fringe contenders:

Alabama: win and in! The Tide can even suffer a loss along the way (most likely to Florida)
Notre Dame: win and in! A loss to Clemson is OK, as long as it's not a total blowout (and as long as Alabama beats Florida).
Clemson: win and in! No room for error, though.
Ohio State: play a final-week game against a quality opponent! And look good doing it! Otherwise, the Buckeyes might be vulnerable to the next tier below.

Texas A&M: Look REALLY good in their closing stretch - enough to keep them above Cincinnati. And hope that (a) Bama beats Florida; and (b) only one ACC team is Top 4-worthy.
Florida: Despite being sandwiched between A&M and Cincy, it's actually the Gators that have the MOST control of their destiny out of this group. Win out, and the Gators should be A-OK with their conference title, despite the triangle of W-L between Florida, A&M, and Alabama.
Cincinnati: Still the Group of 5's best bet. Probably won't be enough, unless Auburn can pull some tricks and beat A&M. At that point, Bama and Notre Dame wins will go a long way - as long as Cincy can steer clear of a surprisingly-rising Big 12 duo of Oklahoma and Iowa State.

Oklahoma/Iowa State: The committee has been giving the Big 12 some love, but I doubt it will be enough. I suppose multiple teams above could lose (Cincy splitting with Tulsa; A&M getting upset; Florida and Clemson losing their respective CCGs) and give the winner here a shot. 
Georgia/Miami: Two more fringe contenders, currently on the outside looking in. I suppose if absolute chaos happens above one of them in their conference race, AND they dominate down the stretch, AND they dominate their opponent in the conference title game...then I suppose they have a chance to pass the "eye test." Especially if Ohio State only has a handful of games, and none more impressive than their close win over Indiana.

With 3 weeks to go, there's still plenty of opportunity for more than just the current Top 4. But I don't foresee any reasonable - or even fringe - path for anyone outside of the teams above.

New Year's Six

Northwestern's loss throws a wrench into the Big Ten's at-large plans. And the committee's kind treatment of the ACC could make way for 3 NY6 teams for the first time!

I'll lay out the best-case scenarios for each conference, and what needs to happen to see that become reality.

SEC
Potential for 4 NY6 teams, and for 2 of these four to be in the Playoff. As long as the teams in contention don't get upset, then all four should remain in good shape. Bama in the CFP; A&M/Florida/Georgia elsewhere (one likely in the Orange Bowl).

ACC
Potential for 3 NY6 teams, and for 2 of them to be in the CFP. Clemson and ND should be NY6 shoo-ins, CFP or not. And Miami needs to make sure they win out and don't get passed by Indiana. 

I suppose UNC has a shot, given their surprisingly high ranking. A dominant win over Miami, coupled with ND and Clemson both in the Playoff, could allow the Tar Heels to slip into the Orange Bowl ahead of the Hurricanes.

Ohio State qualifying for - and winning - the Big Ten Championship would also help, as it would keep a 2nd Big Ten team from nabbing one of the ACC's potential at-large spots.

Big Ten
Potential for 2 NY6 teams, and for Ohio State to make the Playoff. The best bet for multiple NY6 bids probably involves Ohio State NOT being the conference champ. 

• If it's by not qualifying for the title game, then the Buckeyes should be high enough for an at-large - or even the Playoff. And the champ, by virtue of being the Big Ten Champ - will have an automatic NY6 spot. 
• If it's by virtue of LOSING the Big Ten Title Game, then the Buckeyes should still comfortably be in At-Large range to join automatically-qualifying Northwestern.

Either way, it really doesn't depend on anything else that happens in the other conferences.

Big 12, PAC-12
Well, at least each of these conference get the automatic NY6 berth for their Champ.  And this season, the PAC-12 champ might be lower-ranked than a G5 Conference Champ that doesn't get a NY6 Bowl!

American
Cincy is firmly in the driver's seat for the automatic spot. And ranked Tulsa might be able to pass the Coastal-Marshall duo IF Tulsa can sweep Cincy in consecutive weeks. 

Sun Belt
Coastal Carolina is in an interesting position, just based on the opponents they have left. Even though the Committee isn't giving Liberty the respect the AP and Coaches polls are, I'm sure a Chanticleer victory over the Flames will look quite impressive! Especially if it's convincing. 

The question is: can wins over Liberty and ranked Louisiana (for the 2nd time) give the committee enough to vault CCU up into NY6 at-large range - even if Cincy is still ahead of them? My guess is "no" and that the Chanticleers' best bet is for Tulsa/Cincy split in the final 2 weeks.

Conference USA
Marshall is undefeated, but in need of some help. The best path (though not necessarily likely): Tulsa loses to Cincy, then beats the Bearcats to claim the American Championship. AND: Coastal Carolina loses somewhere along the way (Liberty or Louisiana, doesn't really matter which).

Overall Bowl Picture

We're seeing some long-lasting bowls say "not this year." Including the long-lasting Sun Bowl! 

I'll speculate more about this next week. But as of right now, I'm not so certain that the rule change to "above .500" will even be necessary by the time the bowls roll around! I wonder if conferences will create priority lists, like the ACC has done in past years? If so, it should at least ensure that the most deserving teams are able to go to bowls.