Anything with "final" and "2020" has to be a good thing, right?!? Even in this crazy messed-up year, it's still bittersweet to be so close to the end of another college football season.
CFP Discussion
As with last week (and really, all the CFP Rankings this season), the Playoff 4 seem pretty close to set, barring some serious funny business.
1 Alabama (10-0) - playing 7 Florida
2 Notre Dame (10-0) - playing 3 Clemson
3 Clemson (9-1) - playing 2 Notre Dame
4 Ohio State (5-0) - playing 14 Northwestern
All four are playing in a Conference Championship Game this weekend. One of them must lose (ND or Clemson, in Charlotte). The other two are heavily-favored.
As promised, here are the foreseeable Playoff options. Note that some are far more likely than others.
Scenario 1: Alabama and Ohio State win; Clemson wins
- This is the favored scenario.
- Alabama would almost-certainly remain #1, as the Tide have been nothing short of dominant all season
- Clemson would almost-certainly ascend to #2, having already been ahead of Ohio State and scoring a better win than the Buckeyes. Being ACC Champs puts them ahead of ND and the 1-1 split between these two teams.
- Notre Dame and Ohio State would fill the last two spots, with some debate over which team is placed where. The Buckeyes would be unbeaten with a conference title; while the Irish would have played 5 more games and would own the better win of the two. And while the committee has specifically said it will not position teams to manipulate matchups, I believe that we would not see ND vs Clemson III unless both ACC teams win their semifinals.
Scenario 2: Alabama and Ohio State win; Notre Dame wins.
- Alabama is clearly 1; Notre Dame is clearly 2; Ohio State is clearly 3.
- There is a pool of teams competing for that 4th spot:
- 2-loss Clemson, whose only two losses were to unbeaten ND. Best win: Top 20 Miami.
- 1-loss Texas A&M, whose only loss was an early blowout to Alabama. Best win: SEC East Champ Florida.
- 2-loss Big 12 Champ. The key word and reason for inclusion in this pool being "champ." The best win would be that CCG opponent (and if it's Iowa State, that would mean its 2nd win over Oklahoma).
- My prediction in this scenario: the committee upholds its tradition of rewarding 1-loss teams over 2-loss teams, and gives Texas A&M a chance to show it has grown over the season.
- In the event Texas A&M also loses (they play a pretty bad Tennessee team in a make-up game), I predict the Big 12 Champ to edge out 2-loss non-champ Clemson in this scenario.
Scenario 3: Alabama loses. Clemson and Ohio State win.
- Clemson would be #1, with Notre Dame and Ohio State arguing over the 2-3 slot (which doesn't matter too greatly, as they would be paired up against each other in the semifinal).
- Alabama holds onto #4. Even if Florida somehow blows out the Tide, Bama still holds the head-to-head blowout WIN over Texas A&M. And only has 1 loss, compared to Florida's two. Similar to Penn State/Ohio State 2016.
Scenario 4: Ohio State loses; Texas A&M wins.
- This is really where Texas A&M can benefit. The Aggies have only the one loss, with a more robust season than Ohio State. So while an undefeated Buckeyes team is being given benefit of the doubt despite its fewer games played, I feel confident that a 1-loss Buckeyes will not be extended that same courtesy.
- Bama and Notre Dame are in - win or lose. Clemson is in with a win, and probably out with a loss - in favor of the Big 12 Champ.
Scenario 5: Ohio State AND Texas A&M lose.
- Despite not being in a conference title game, the Aggies still have a game this weekend. A makeup game against a pretty bad Tennessee team.
- In this case, Iowa State is perfectly positioned to jump past these two. Once again, the committee won't extend much benefit of the doubt to a 5-win Ohio State team that is NOT perfect and does NOT win its conference. And despite the extra loss, this Iowa State team would have 3 wins over ranked teams - compared to Ohio State's 2 games played vs ranked teams.
- And if the Big 12 Champ is Oklahoma, then we get some interesting discussion between the Sooners and Buckeyes. My prediction: the committee rewards the greater number of games, the Conference Title, and the long winning streak of Oklahoma, despite the 2 losses.
- Bama and Notre Dame are in - win or lose. Clemson is in with a win, and probably a loss as well, as long as Florida doesn't win. In such a case, slide in the Gators.
Summary of Predictions:
3 favorites (currently 1, 3 and 4) win: 1 Alabama 2 Clemson 3 Ohio State 4 Notre Dame
1 is upset: 1 Clemson 2 Ohio State 3 Notre Dame 4 Alabama
3 is upset: 1 Alabama 2 Notre Dame 3 Ohio State 4 Texas A&M(x)
4 is upset: 1 Alabama 2 Clemson 3 Notre Dame 4 Texas A&M(x)
1 and 3 are upset: 1 Notre Dame 2 Ohio State 3 Alabama 4 Texas A&M(x)
1 and 4 are upset: 1 Clemson 2 Notre Dame 3 Alabama 4 Texas A&M(x)
3 and 4 are upset: 1 Alabama 2 Notre Dame 3 Texas A&M(x) 4 Big 12 Champ(y)
CHAOS! 1, 3, AND 4 are upset: 1 Notre Dame 2 Alabama 3 Texas A&M(x) 4 Big 12 Champ(z)
In the event of a Texas A&M loss to Tennessee:
(x) To be replaced by Big 12 Champ
(y) To be replaced by Clemson
(z) To be replaced by Florida
New Year's Six
With all of the excitement of the Playoffs, I also want to bring attention to the NY6 as a whole. Because we've got an opportunity for some firsts!
Here's the next several teams up in the rankings:
5 Texas A&M (7-1) - Playing Tennessee
6 Iowa State (8-2) - Playing 10 Oklahoma
7 Florida (8-2) - Playing 1 Alabama
8 Georgia (7-2) - game vs Vandy cancelled
9 Cincinnati (8-0) - Playing 23 Tulsa (6-1)
10 Oklahoma (7-2) - Playing 6 Iowa State
11 Indiana (6-1) - game vs Purdue cancelled
12 Coastal Carolina (11-0) - playing 19 Louisiana (9-1)
13 USC (5-0) - playing Oregon
14 Northwestern (6-1) - playing 4 Ohio State
As it is right now, the Top 10, plus the PAC-12 Champ (by virtue of P5 champs automatically qualifying) and 15th-ranked UNC (by virtue of the ACC's Orange Bowl arrangement) are NY6 bound.
But will it stay that way???
SEC At-Larges
Texas A&M is so highly-ranked that even an upset loss to Tennessee shouldn't drop the Aggies all the way out of NY6 range. Especially since Florida could very well lose - and one of the Big 12 teams WILL lose.
Florida may not have suffered much after its loss to LSU (a close loss, but an UGLY loss). But a 2nd straight loss - especially if it's a blowout - would put the Gators in a precarious position. A close loss to Bama probably keeps Florida *barely* in range.
Georgia is just "kind of there." And with no game to play, there's no game to lose! The Bulldogs are in, barring some serious committee re-thinking!
Orange Bowl
In the ACC, the favored scenario involves 2 CFP teams. That would be a first for the conference, thanks largely to its one-year member in Notre Dame. And because of that, UNC is in prime position for the Orange Bowl as the 3rd-highest ranked team (also a first for the ACC to get 3 NY6 teams). The key for the Tar Heels involves both Clemson and ND staying in the Top 4 - which in all likelihood requires a Clemson win. Otherwise, the ACC runner-up would be Orange Bowl-bound, while UNC's upsets to Florida State and UVA would keep the Tar Heels too far out of NY6 at-large range.
In the SEC, this seems like Texas A&M's spot to lose. Unless (1) A&M makes it into the Top 4 or gets upset by Tennessee; or (2) the SEC-affiliated NY6 bowls swap teams during these pandemic times to allow for in-state arrangements (A&M - Cotton; Georgia - Peach; Florida - Orange). For (2) to work, this would require all three to be in NY6 range - which is no guarantee.
The only realistic shot for the Big Ten to get the Orange Bowl spot is Ohio State losing the Big Ten Championship Game to Northwestern (and by "realistic" I mean "theoretical", as Ohio State is a pretty big favorite). With A&M likely in the CFP in that scenario, the Buckeyes should finish ahead of Georgia. That would also open up the Outback Bowl to the ACC.
Automatic Group of 5 Spot
Cincinnati not playing for a few weeks hurt the Bearcats. And now, with Coastal Carolina just a few spots away AND playing a higher-ranked opponent, the automatic G5 spot is not something the American can just take for granted with a squeaker win.
That being said, a Cincy win will probably keep them ahead of Coastal and allow them to be the highest-ranked G5 Champ.
Should Cincy lose, I think the Sun Belt Champ - whomever it is - will be next in line. Coastal would be a shoo-in if the Chants win, while I think the Cajuns (1-1 vs Coastal, and 1-0 vs Iowa State) would remain ahead of Tulsa should the situation present itself.
Other At-Large Spots
Two teams are nowhere NEAR usual NY6 contenders, yet are both on the cusp of a huge feat. Indiana and Coastal Carolina have been great feel-good stories this season, and have far exceeded expectations!
For either to have a shot at an at-large, they need any of the following to happen:
- The Big 12 Championship Game loser (at 3 losses) to fall below Indiana/Coastal. This has a greater chance of happening if it's Oklahoma, though the "common opponent" test between Coastal and Iowa State in such a situation could end up favoring the Chants over the Cyclones if the committee sees them as close.
- Florida to fall outside of NY6 range with its 2nd straight "bad" loss (one being a close loss to a bad LSU team; the other possibly being a blowout loss to a great Alabama team).
- Clemson loses again to Notre Dame and is bumped to the Orange Bowl; bumping up another team from the at-large pool; and bumping OUT UNC altogether.
Should any two of these happen, both Indiana and Coastal Carolina should be NY6 bound.
Should only one happen, let the great debate begin! Coastal would be 12-0 with 3 ranked wins. Indiana would be a 1-loss Big Ten team that gave Ohio State a close game (eventually).
Should none of these 3 things happen (in other words, should Clemson win, and Florida and the Big 12 CG loser still be higher-ranked), then....well...hopefully we'll see some tweaks in the system in future years to avoid a potential situation where a lower-ranked conference champ USC team makes it while a higher-ranked champ Coastal does not.
Closing Thoughts
With a great Championship Week in store - with so many teams still playing for so much - this should be a special treat! Enjoy the games - and the various levels of Selection Show Drama (CFP, as well as the whole NY6) this Sunday!
Peace!
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