12/8 Rankings Reaction & Post-Season Look-Ahead

Not much happening at the top, but plenty of interesting movement with NY6 implications!

Based on the latest committee rankings, I'll start off with the "baseline" projection for NY6 bowls.

CFP: 1 Alabama; 2 Notre Dame; 3 Clemson; 4 Ohio State

Orange: 10 Miami vs 5 Texas A&M

Other Automatic: 7 Iowa State; 8 Cincinnati; 15 USC

At Large: 6 Florida; 9 Georgia; 11 Oklahoma

A couple of key notes:

• I would rather not project the Top 4, since the combination of Clemson and Ohio State wins - along with the latter's significantly fewer number of games - really make the ordering of 2-4 anyone's guess.
• Florida seems to be in firm control of its Playoff destiny. In fact, the most "chaotic" scenario (especially for Ohio State) would involve both Florida AND Clemson victories!
• If 5 Texas A&M and 6 Florida both want to be in-state bound for their respective NY6 Bowls, I would expect the committee to flip them in their penultimate ranking (and then decide not to punish the Gators with a loss to Alabama). I'll be interested in seeing what next Tuesday's rankings look like, especially if Florida is more convincing in their win over LSU than A&M was - while A&M's not playing at all.
• Of course, this WILL change. For starters, the Big 12 Championship Game loser will have 3 losses. Whether it's Oklahoma or Iowa State, this should allow for one of the lurking teams to climb into NY6 range.

Still in NY6 Contention

Even if the chances are slim for some of these, it's impressive to see there are quite a few with just 2 weekends to go!

• 12 Indiana, though the Hoosiers may need to be back in action on the final week. As it is, IU will be out this weekend against their rival Purdue due to the virus.
• 13 Coastal Carolina, who got a great win against BYU, and could get their THIRD ranked win of the season by defeating Louisiana (again) in the Sun Belt Championship Game.
  And with 2 paths! 
• The at-large path, if Indiana can't play any more games (or if UNC beats Miami, and the ACC doesn't send 2 to the Playoff; or if 25 Missouri beats Georgia). This would give us 2 non-P5 teams in the NY6 for the first time!
• Root for Tulsa! An unbeaten CCU with its impressive-enough resume should be able to beat out a 1-loss Tulsa for the automatic G5 NY6 spot.
• 14 Northwestern. They've got one shot: beat Ohio State for the automatic NY6 spot! 
• 16 Iowa: If the Hawkeyes get a chance to play Indiana in the final-week games, and win impressively, could the committee slide them above the Hoosiers, Northwestern, the B12 CG loser, AND Coastal Carolina? Probably not, but I'm not going to rule out the possibility.
• 17 UNC: if the Tar Heels beat 10 Miami this weekend, the committee may value the head-to-head over the W-L record of these two teams. Especially if the win is convincing. If so, this weekend's game could be a play-on for the Orange Bowl.
• 19 Colorado - as long as the Buffs win against Utah, and UCLA beats USC. At that point, a P12 Championship Game nets Colorado an automatic NY6 spot if they win it. Otherwise, we've got an undefeated team locked out of its own CCG - due to a USC-initiated virus cancellation. I'm not a fan of this!!!
• ?? Oregon/Washington. Currently unranked, the winner of the Division will be just one Conference Championship Game upset away from securing their own automatic NY6 spot.

The finish line is in sight! And I really plan to get into the "what if" game after next Tuesday's penultimate rankings!