Nothing should surprise us any more in 2020. The ACC cancelled some games and ended up clinching their championship game this weekend. Even they were getting tired of the COVID version of the #goacc Wheel of Destiny.
We have two and a half conference championship games set, but the remaining berths have been overly complicated by 2020.
Can we please just get to 2021 and have a sense of structure back?
ACC Championship Game - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) vs. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
The only other team that still had a chance was Miami, who is sitting at 7-1. They lose out on the h2h loss against Clemson. All of the remaining teams have 3 or more losses, so wouldn't even be able to catch up even if ND and Clemson each played their 10th conference game next weekend.
This marks the 8th non-Atlantic team to play in the game in the last 8 seasons.
Notre Dame defeated Clemson in 2OT earlier this season. Also of note was that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence did not play in that game.
Big 12 Championship Game: Iowa State Cyclones (8-1) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (6-2)
Oklahoma State and Texas are both sitting at 5-3, but Oklahoma has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams.
Iowa State defeated Oklahoma earlier this season.
SEC Championship Game - Florida Gators (8-1) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division, and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over their closest challenger (6-2 Georgia and 7-1 Texas A&M respectively).
Big Ten
The B1G is playing an 8 game schedule. The following week, everyone will play their counterpart from the opposite division in the same place in the standings. (So, 1 vs. 1, 7 vs. 7, etc.)
Big Ten teams need to play 6 games to be eligible for the title game. However, if the average number of conference games decreases below 6, then a team must remain within two games of the average to be eligible. The total number of conference games listed below is double the real number, because we're looking at games per team.
Conference total: 96 (out of 112)
Conference average: 6.85
Until the conference average dips below 5.49, any team with fewer than 6 games played and/or scheduled will be ineligible for the title game. At that point, the two game rule will take effect.
An average of 5.49 times 14 teams equals 76.86 games, which we will round down to 76, which is 20 fewer than the 96 we are currently sitting at. In other words, 10 games need to be cancelled next week, but there are only 7 games scheduled.
There has been discussion that the Big Ten might alter their rule if Michigan is unable to play and cancels another OSU game which would put them under the threshold.
Also, if multiple teams end up with the same number of losses but an unequal number of wins, preference is given to a head-to-head matchup before winning percentage. If you have a 6-2 team (75%) that lost to a 5-2 team (71.4%), the 5-2 would advance.
East
I have to say this divisional race probably has the most drama I've ever seen in a race that I've followed, and very little of it is on the field.
We're down to two teams who have a shot at winning the divisional title.
Ohio State (5-0) - total: 6
They can clinch the division by playing the game against Michigan. Even with a loss and an Indiana win, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indiana. They are disqualified if the game doesn't get played and the Big Ten does not change their 6-game requirement. If the requirement is changed, then OSU has already clinched the division.
Indiana (6-1) - total: 8
They can clinch the division if the OSU-Michigan game is cancelled and the rule is not changed. In any other scenario, they lose out by having lost to Ohio State earlier this year.
Out of contention:
Maryland (2-2) - total: 5
Michigan State (2-4) - total: 7
Michigan (2-4) - total: 7
Rutgers (2-5) - total: 8
Penn State (2-5) - total: 8
West Division Champs - Northwestern Wildcats (5-1)
Northwestern clinched by beating Iowa earlier this year.
Scenarios #1-3 - both teams win, lose, or cancel next week
Records (win): NW 6-1, Iowa 6-2
Records (lose): NW 5-2, Iowa 5-3
Records (cancel): NW 5-1, Iowa 5-2
Outcome: Northwestern has a better win percentage.
Scenario #4 - NW cancels, Iowa plays
Records: NW 5-1, Iowa 6-2 or 5-3
Outcome: Northwestern has a better win percentage. (83% over 75% or 62.5%)
Scenarios #5-6 - NW wins, Iowa cancels or loses
Records: NW 6-1, Iowa 5-2 or 5-3
Outcome: Northwestern has a better win percentage.
Scenario #7 - NW loses, Iowa cancels
Records: NW 5-2, Iowa 5-2
Outcome: Northwestern wins on head-to-head
Scenario #8 - NW loses, Iowa wins
Records: NW 5-2, Iowa 6-2
Outcome: Northwestern wins on head-to-head, which takes precedence over win percentage.
Out of contention:
Iowa (5-2) - total: 8
Purdue (2-4) - total: 7
Minnesota (2-3) - total: 6
Illinois (2-4) - total: 7
Wisconsin (2-2) - total: 5
Nebraska (2-4) - total: 7
Pac-12
The Pac-12 is only playing 6 conference games this season. Teams need to be within one game of the conference average to be eligible. The Pac-12 has added some games to the schedule to replace multiple cancelled games, then they started allowing non-conference games.
I make no guarantees as to the accuracy of the possibilities or scenarios in this conference. Too much work to figure out the conference that was last to the table.
Conference total: 58 (out of 72)
Conference average: 4.83
North
Assuming that the game gets played, it all comes down to the winner of Washington (3-1) at Oregon (3-2). The winner will be the only team to achieve 4 wins, which will allow for the highest percentage in the division.
If the game is cancelled, Washington will clinch the division with their 75% winning percentage, which is better than the 60% that Oregon has currently or Stanford can achieve with a win.
Out of contention:
Washington State (1-2) - total: 4
Stanford (2-2) - total: 5
Oregon State (2-3) - total: 6
Cal (1-3) - total: 5
South
The Pac-12 has created a mess for themselves, as USC is 4-0 and Colorado is 3-0, each with one game left, and it's not against each other. If they both win out, it's up to other tiebreakers.
Either way, we know the division winner needs to hit at least 4 wins, which no other team can do.
Out of contention
UCLA (2-3) - total: 6
Utah (1-2) - total: 4
Arizona (1-3) - total: 5
Arizona State (0-2) - total: 3
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