Happy Halloween! We already have a division winner! Meanwhile, a nice treat from Virginia Tech would be to fire Brad Cornelsen.
Reminder that the conference races only count conference games. Tiebreaker info is under each team, separated into wins (W) and losses (L).
Teams that control their own destiny can win their division by winning out. Teams who need help are able of regaining control if other teams lose. Teams who are "out of control" could still win their division, but require tiebreakers.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Wake Forest (5-0)
W: Louisville, FSU, Syracuse
-NC State (3-1)
W: Clemson, BC, Louisville
Needs help:
-Clemson (4-2) needs two NC State losses plus an additional loss by WF.
W: BC, Syracuse, FSU
L: NC State
Out of control:
-Louisville (2-3) needs to win out with WF and NC State losing out. They will be eliminated with a loss OR NC State win in week 10.
W: FSU, BC
L: WF, NC State
Out of contention:
-FSU (2-3) loses out on tiebreakers.
W: Syracuse
L: WF, Louisville, Clemson
-Syracuse (2-3) loses out on tiebreakers.
W: BC
L: WF, FSU, Clemson
-Boston College (0-4)
The only chance any of these 3-loss teams have is forcing a multi-team tie at 5-3 that has to include Wake Forest and Clemson. (Clemson's remaining games are against WF and Louisville, so they would need to beat WF and lose to Louisville to allow any ties.)
To set up ties at 5-3:
-WF would need to lose out (NC State, Clemson, BC)
-Clemson would need to beat WF and lose to Louisville
-NC State would need to beat WF, but lose to FSU and Syracuse. Then, if they beat UNC in the final week, they would be part of the ties. If they lose to UNC, they would be 4-4 and out of contention.
-The current 3-loss teams would need to win out:
--Syracuse (Louisville, NC State, Pitt)
--Louisville (Clemson, Syracuse, Duke)
--FSU (NC State, Miami, BC)
Therefore, there is no possible tie involving both Louisville and Syracuse, as the loser of that game is eliminated.
Tie scenarios at 5-3:
-WF/Clemson - Clemson would own head-to-head
-WF/NC State - NC State would own head-to-head
-WF/Clemson/NC State - NC State would be 2-0 in the group and take the division.
-WF/Clemson/Louisville - all three would be 1-1, so go to division records. WF would be 3-3 and drop out because Clemson and Louisville would be 4-2, and Louisville would have head-to-head.
-WF/Clemson/Syracuse - Clemson would be 2-0 in the group and take the division.
-WF/Clemson/FSU - Clemson would be 2-0 in the group and take the division.
-WF/Clemson/NC State/Louisville - NC State is 3-0 in the group and take the division.
-WF/Clemson/NC State/Syracuse - NC State and Clemson would be 2-1 in the group, and then NC State takes it on head-to-head.
-WF/Clemson/NC State/FSU - NC State and Clemson would be 2-1 in the group, and then NC State takes it on head-to-head.
-WF/Clemson/Louisville/FSU - FSU would be 0-3 in the group, so it would revert to the WF/Clemson/Louisville tie.
-WF/Clemson/Syracuse/FSU - Clemson would be 3-0 in the group and take the division.
-WF/Clemson/NC State/Louisville/FSU - NC State would be 3-1 in the group and take the division.
-WF/Clemson/NC State/Syracuse/FSU - Clemson would be 3-1 in the group and take the division.
Louisville's only chance to to force a 3-way tie with WF and Clemson or a 4-way tie with WF, Clemson, and FSU.
Coastal
Controls destiny:
-Pitt (3-1)
W: GT, VT
L: Miami
-uva (4-2)
W: Miami, Duke, GT
L: UNC
Needs help:
-Miami (2-2) needs losses by uva and Pitt.
W: Pitt
L: uva, UNC
-VT (2-2) needs 2 Pitt losses.
W: UNC, GT
L: Pitt
-UNC (3-3) needs losses by VT (2), Miami, and uva, plus an additional loss by Pitt.
W: Duke, uva, Miami
L: VT, GT
Out of control:
-GT (2-4) would need to force a multi-team tie with uva and other teams at 4-4.
W: UNC, Duke
L: Pitt, uva, VT
-Duke (0-4) would need to force a multi-team tie with uva and other teams at 4-4.
L: GT, UNC, uva
GT and Duke are most likely already eliminated, but it's still too early in the season to try to do the math for all possible scenarios of a tie at 4-4. Either team will be fully mathematically eliminated with a loss OR a uva win (which can't happen until week 12 as they have the bye/OOC combo).
Bowl eligible: WF, Pitt, uva, NC State
1 win away: Clemson, Syracuse
SEC
East Champions - Georgia Bulldogs (6-0)
So far, Georgia has the best record in the division. Even if they lose out, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kentucky who is the only team close enough to tie them.
Out of contention:
-Kentucky (3-2)
-Tennessee (2-3)
-Florida (2-4)
-Mizzou (1-3)
-SC (1-3)
-Vandy (0-5)
West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (4-1)
W: Ole Miss, Mississippi State
L: Texas A&M
-Auburn (3-1)
W: LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss
Needs help:
-Mississippi State (3-2) needs losses by Alabama (2).
W: Texas A&M
L: LSU, Alabama
-Texas A&M (3-2) needs losses by Mississippi State and Alabama.
W: Alabama
L: Arkansas, Miss State
-Ole Miss (3-2) needs losses by Alabama (2) and Auburn (2).
W: Arkansas
L: Alabama, Auburn
-LSU (2-3) needs losses by Auburn (3) and Miss State, plus an additional loss by Alabama.
W: Miss State
L: Auburn
-Arkansas (1-3) needs losses by Ole Miss (2), Auburn (3), and Texas A&M, plus an additional loss by Alabama.
W: Texas A&M
L: Ole Miss, Auburn
Bowl eligible: Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn
1 win away: Mississippi State, Arkansas
No bowl: Vandy
Big Ten (B1G)
East
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (5-0)
W: Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, PSU
-Michigan State (5-0)
W: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan
Needs help:
-Michigan (4-1) needs losses by Michigan State (2).
W: Rutgers
L: Michigan State
-Penn State (2-3) needs losses by Ohio State (4) plus additional losses by Michigan and Michigan State (2).
W: Indiana
L: OSU
-Maryland (2-3) needs losses by Ohio State (4) plus additional losses by Michigan and Michigan State (2).
W: Indiana
L: OSU
Out of contention:
-Indiana (0-5)
-Rutgers (1-4) - since OSU and MSU have yet to play, one team is guaranteed to get to six wins, which is more than Rutgers can get.
West
Controls destiny:
-Minnesota (4-1)
W: Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern
-Wisconsin (3-2)
W: Illinois, Purdue, Iowa
Needs help:
-Purdue (3-2) needs losses by Minnesota (2) and Wisconsin.
W: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska
L: Minnesota, Wisconsin
-Iowa (3-2) needs losses by Wisconsin and Purdue.
L: Purdue, Wisconsin
-Illinois (2-3) needs losses by Purdue (2) and Wisconsin (2) and an additional loss by Minnesota.
W: Nebraska
L: Purdue, Wisconsin
-Northwestern (1-4) needs losses by Minnesota (4), plus additional losses by Iowa and Purdue. They will definitely be eliminated with a loss AND a Minnesota win (although they probably don't even need that much.)
L: Nebraska, Minnesota
Out of control:
-Nebraska (1-5) would have a force a multi-team tie at 4-5 that would require Minnesota. They will be eliminated with a loss OR Minnesota win.
W: Northwestern
L: Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue
Bowl eligible: MSU, Michigan, Iowa, OSU, Minnesota
1 win away: PSU, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue
1 loss away: Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska
Pac-12
North
Controls destiny:
-Oregon (4-1)
W: Cal
L: Stanford
-Washington State (4-2)
W: Cal, Oregon State, Stanford
-Oregon State (3-2)
W: Washington
L: Washington State, Cal
Needs help:
-Washington (3-2) needs a loss by Oregon State.
W: Cal, Stanford
L: Oregon State
-Stanford (2-3) needs losses by Oregon (3).
W: Oregon
L: Washington State, Washington
-Cal (2-3) needs losses by Washington (2), Washington State (2), Oregon (3), and Oregon State.
W: Oregon State
L: Washington State, Washington, Oregon
South
Controls destiny:
-Utah (4-1)
W: USC, Az State, UCLA
Needs help:
-Arizona State (3-2) needs losses by Utah (2).
W: Colorado, UCLA
L: Utah
-USC (3-3) needs losses by Utah (3).
W: Colorado, Arizona
L: Utah
-UCLA (3-3) needs losses by Utah (3) and Arizona State (2).
W: Arizona
L: Arizona State, Utah
-Colorado (1-4) needs losses by Az State (2) and USC (2), plus additional losses by Utah (2).
W: Arizona
L: USC
Out of control:
-Arizona (0-5) will be eliminated with a loss OR Utah win.
L: UCLA, Colorado, USC
Bowl eligible: Oregon
1 win away: Az State, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State, Utah
1 loss away: Colorado
no bowl: Arizona
Big 12
Always a bit different in the Big 12 with no divisions and a round robin schedule. Since Oklahoma is already 6-0, so worst possible record is 6-3, we already know that any team with 4 or more losses cannot be the #1 seed in the Big 12 Championship game. Also, any 3 loss team who has lost to Oklahoma cannot be eligible for the #1 seed. Some of those teams might be eligible for the #2 seed.
-Oklahoma (6-0)
W: WVU, K-State, Texas, TCU, Kansas, Texas Tech
-Oklahoma State (4-1)
W: K-State, Baylor, Texas, Kansas
L: Iowa State
-Baylor (4-1)
W: Kansas, Iowa State, WVU, Texas
L: Oklahoma State
-Iowa State (3-2)
W: Kansas, K-State, Oklahoma State
L: Baylor, WVU
Ineligible for #1 seed:
-Texas (2-3)
W: Texas Tech, TCU
L: Oklahoma, OK State, Baylor
-WVU (2-3)
W: TCU, Iowa State
L: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Baylor
-Kansas State (2-3)
W: Texas Tech, TCU
L: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
-TCU (1-4)
W: Texas Tech
L: Texas, Oklahoma, WVU, K-State
-Texas Tech (2-4)
W: WVU, Kansas
L: Texas, TCU, K-State, Oklahoma
Out of contention:
-Kansas (0-5)
L: Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
I'm confident in saying that Kansas is eliminated from contention for even the #2 seed. Even if the current 4-1 teams lose out, both of them have tiebreakers over Kansas.
Bowl eligible: Oklahoma, OK State, Baylor
1 win away: Texas Tech, Iowa State, K-State
no bowl: Kansas
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