I'm using my extra hour today to determine conference races.
Remember that any talk of records and being undefeated strictly refers to conference records. For the conferences with no divisions, the "controls destiny" section refers to teams that can control their own destiny to get into the conference championship game as either the #1 or #2 team.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Clinched berth:
-Florida State (7-0)
W: BC, Clemson, VT, Syracuse, Duke, WF, Pitt
Even if FSU loses their final conference game, the only other team that can finish with only a single loss is Louisville. FSU can clinch the #1 seed with a win OR Louisville loss. If both teams end at 7-1, then the ACC will have to go down a few tiebreakers to determine the #1 seed:
--There is no head-to-head tiebreaker.
--Except for Miami and Pitt, both teams would have defeated any common opponents.
--Each team would be 1-1 against both Miami and Pitt, so the ACC would need to keep going down tiebreakers.
At this point, I'm losing interest, because it only matters for uniform selection and coin flip, it probably won't happen, and it involves more data that we won't have until the end of the month.
Controls destiny:
-Louisville (5-1)
W: Georgia Tech, BC, NC State, Duke, VT
L: Pitt
Louisville can clinch the second berth with a win AND a loss by UNC. Louisville has tiebreakers against all current 2-loss teams except UNC.
Needs help:
-UNC (3-2)
W: Pitt, Syracuse, Miami
L: uva, GT
If UNC wins out and Louisville loses out, UNC would have a better record and advance. But if the two teams end up with the same record, we'd have to go down the tiebreaker list, since there is no head-to-head.
Win out, plus Louisville lose out:
-Georgia Tech (4-2)
W: Wake Forest, Miami, UNC, uva
L: Louisville, BC
-Virginia Tech (3-2)
W: Pitt, WF, Syracuse
L: FSU, Louisville
-Duke (3-2)
W: Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest
L: FSU, Louisville
-NC State (3-2)
W: uva, Clemson, Miami
L: Louisville, Duke
-Boston College (3-2)
W: uva, GT, Syracuse
L: FSU, Louisville
Any of these teams are eliminated with a loss OR Louisville win.
Barely hanging on:
-Miami (2-3)
W: Clemson, uva
L: GT, UNC, NC State
Miami only has one path to the ACCCG:
-win out (FSU, Louisville, BC) -- get a 5-3 record and a tiebreaker over Louisville
-Louisville lose out (uva, Miami) -- Louisville drops to 5-3
-All of the 2-loss teams need to lose 1 or 2 games.
Out of contention:
-uva (1-4)
W: UNC
L: NC State, BC, Miami, GT
-Pitt (1-4)
W: Louisville
L: UNC, VT, WF, FSU
-Clemson (2-4)
W: Syracuse, WF
L: Duke, FSU, Miami, NC State
-Wake Forest (1-5)
W: Pitt
L: GT, Clemson, VT, FSU, Duke
-Syracuse (0-5)
L: Clemson, UNC, FSU, VT, BC
Due to the current records of FSU and Louisville, any ACCCG participant will need to have at least 5 conference wins. Interestingly enough, all five of these teams were out of contention of the #1 seed last week, but might have still mathematically have had a chance, except that every single one of these teams that played in conference lost.
SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (6-0) can clinch with a win OR Tennessee loss.
W: USCe, Kentucky, Vandy, Florida, Missouri
Needs help:
-Tennessee (3-2) needs to win out AND have Georgia lose out.
W: South Carolina, Kentucky
L: Florida
Tennessee will be eliminated with a loss OR Georgia win.
Out of contention:
-Missouri (3-2)
W: Vandy, Kentucky, South Carolina
L: Georgia
-Florida (3-3)
W: Tennessee, Vandy, South Carolina
L: Kentucky, Georgia
-Kentucky (3-3)
W: Vandy, Florida
L: Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee
-South Carolina (1-5)
L: Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri
-Vanderbilt (0-6)
L: Kentucky, Missouri, Florida, Georgia
Why is Missouri out at 3-2 but Tennessee still in with the same record? Since Missouri and Tennessee play each other next week, one of them will drop to 3 losses, and there is no possibility of a three-way tie. If we end with Georgia and Missouri tied at 6-2, Georgia already has the tiebreaker. A scenario of Georgia and Tennessee both at 6-2 would go to Tennessee.
West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (6-0) clinches with a win OR Ole Miss loss.
W: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU
Needs help:
-Ole Miss (5-1) will be eliminated with a loss OR Alabama win.
W: LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M
L: Alabama
Since Alabama has defeated both LSU and Ole Miss, they own all of the tiebreakers in a scenario where teams are tied at 6-2. Ole Miss's only chance of winning the division is having a better record than Alabama.
Out of contention:
-LSU (4-2)
W: Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn
L: Ole Miss, Alabama
-Texas A&M (3-3)
W: Auburn, Arkansas
L: Alabama, Ole Miss
-Auburn (2-4)
W: Mississippi State
L: Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss
-Mississippi State (1-5)
W: Arkansas
L: LSU, Alabama, Auburn
-Arkansas (1-5)
L: LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, Mississippi State
Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (6-0)
W: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan State
-Ohio State (6-0)
W: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers
Since these two play each other, we know that one will get to 7 wins. Therefore, any team with 3 or more losses is out of contention.
Needs help:
-Penn State (5-1) needs 2 OSU losses.
W: Indiana, Maryland
L: Ohio State
Out of contention:
-Rutgers (3-3)
W: Michigan State, Indiana
L: Michigan, Ohio State
-Maryland (2-4)
W: Michigan State, Indiana
L: Ohio State, Penn State
-Indiana (1-5)
L: Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers, PSU
-Michigan State (1-5)
L: Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan
West
Controls destiny:
-Iowa (4-2)
W: Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern
L: Minnesota
Needs help:
-Minnesota (3-3) needs an Iowa loss.
W: Nebraska, Iowa
L: Northwestern, Illinois
-Wisconsin (3-3) needs 2 Iowa losses.
W: Purdue, Illinois
L: Iowa
-Nebraska (3-3) needs a Minnesota loss.
W: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
L: Minnesota
Who even knows?
-Northwestern (2-4)
W: Minnesota
L: Nebraska, Iowa
-Illinois (2-4)
W: Minnesota
L: Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Just start winning:
-Purdue (1-5)
W: Illinois
L: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
Drive for 325: Well, it doesn't matter anymore because Iowa has decided to move on from their OC at the end of this season. Still, it's impressive to see how they can still manage to lower their average.
After 9 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 166 / 225
Points per game: 18.4
For years, the ACC Coastal took a lot of crap from people about being so mediocre, but are these people looking at the Big Ten West? This is truly a division of teams playing hot potato like no one wants to win the division.
Big 12
Controls destiny:
-Texas (5-1)
W: Baylor, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Kansas State
L: Oklahoma
-Oklahoma State (5-1)
W: Kansas State, Kansas, WVU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma
L: Iowa State
These two don't play each other, so it's safe to say that if they both win out, they go to the title game.
Needs help:
-Kansas (4-2)
W: BYU, UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa State
L: Texas, Oklahoma State
-Kansas State (4-2)
W: UCF, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston
L: OK State, Texas
-Oklahoma (4-2)
W: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas, UCF
L: Kansas, Oklahoma State
-Iowa State (4-2)
W: Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor
L: Oklahoma, Kansas
-West Virginia (4-2)
W: Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, BYU
L: Houston, Oklahoma State
Probably out:
-BYU (2-4)
W: Cincinnati, Texas Tech
L: Kansas, TCU, Texas, WVU
-Baylor (2-4)
W: UCF, Cincinnati
L: Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston
-Texas Tech (3-3)
W: Houston, Baylor, TCU
L: WVU, Kansas State, BYU
-TCU (2-4)
W: Houston, BYU
L: WVU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech
-Houston (2-4)
W: WVU, Baylor
L: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State
Any of these teams will be out with a loss OR wins by Texas and Oklahoma State.
Out of contention:
-Cincinnati (0-6)
L: Oklahoma, BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF
-UCF (1-5)
W: Cincinnati
L: Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, WVU
Pac-12
Controls destiny:
-Washington (6-0) - Big Ten
W: Cal, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford, USC
Controls destiny for #2 seed, needs help for #1 seed:
-USC (5-2) - Big Ten
W: Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona, Cal
L: Utah, Washington
-Oregon (5-1) - Big Ten
W: Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, Utah, Cal
L: Washington
Both of these teams need Washington to lose a few games in order to jump them in the standings.
Needs help:
-Oregon State (4-2) - Pac-2
W: Utah, Cal, UCLA, Colorado
L: Washington State, Arizona
-Utah (4-2) - Big 12
W: UCLA, Cal, USC, Arizona State
L: Oregon State, Oregon
-Arizona (4-2) - Big 12
W: Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State, UCLA
L: Washington, USC
-UCLA (3-3) - Big Ten
W: Washington State, Stanford, Colorado
L: Utah, Oregon State, Arizona
Washington and the USC/Oregon winner will both have 6+ wins after next weekend, meaning that anyone with 4+ losses is eliminated from contention. UCLA is completely eliminated with a loss, regardless of any other outcomes.
Out of contention:
Washington State (1-5) - Pac-2
W: Oregon State
L: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford
Cal (1-5) - ACC
W: Arizona State
L: Washington, Oregon State, Utah, USC, Oregon
Colorado (1-5) - Big 12
W: Arizona State
L: Oregon, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State
Arizona State (1-5) - Big 12
W: Washington State
L: USC, Cal, Colorado, Washington, Utah
Stanford (2-5) - ACC
W: Colorado, Washington State
L: USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington
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