Sunday, October 6, 2013

ACC Wheel of Destiny: After Week 6

Everyone has started conference play, and lines have already been drawn.

Sorry, Maryland, but it looks like you were pretenders this year, and FSU handed you your first going away present with a  63-0 blowout.

Here are this week's scenarios.  They all assume the team wins out, and do not account for any multi-way ties (it's still too early to worry about three way ties).  All records listed only refer to conference records.  "Additional loss" refers to a loss in addition to the one that the mentioned team would hand out while winning out.

Atlantic
Clemson and FSU (both 3-0) are still undefeated.
Maryland (0-1) and Boston College (1-1) each need FSU to lose two games.
Syracuse (0-1) needs 2 Clemson losses.
Wake Forest (1-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, 2 BC losses, and an additional loss by FSU.
NC State (0-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, a Wake Forest loss, an additional loss by FSU.

Coastal
Virginia Tech (2-0) and Miami (1-0) are still undefeated.
Pitt has one loss, but from the other division, so they still control their destiny.
UVA (0-1) needs a Pitt loss.
Georgia Tech (2-2) needs 3 losses by both VT and Miami.
UNC (0-2) needs 3 VT losses and a GT loss, plus an additional loss by Miami.
Duke (0-2) needs 2 Pitt losses, a GT loss, and an additional loss each by VT and Miami.

We're bringing back our magic number, which is the number of losses to guarantee elimination.  It is determined by taking the number of conference games left by the leader of the division, subtracting their wins, and adding one.

Atlantic: 6 (the 3-0 teams have 5 games left, so their worst record would be 3-5)
Coastal: 7

As you can see, we've still got a lot more football to play to solidify anything.

We're finally at the point of the season where bowl eligibility can be obtained.  No one in the ACC has gotten to that point yet, because the undefeated teams have all had a bye.

One win away: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami
Two wins away: Maryland

No one has denied themselves a bowl, but UNC looks to be trying real hard.

The Road to the ACC Championship appears to run through these games:

October 12:
Pitt @ Virginia Tech
Boston College @ Clemson

October 19:
Florida State @ Clemson

November 9:
Virginia Tech @ Miami

November 29:
Miami @ Pitt

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