Saturday, October 12, 2013

ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 7 wrap up

We finally have some separation going on in the divisional races, and a perfect set up for the Atlantic side brewing next week.

Atlantic
Clemson (4-0) and FSU (3-0) are still undefeated, but play each other next week.
Maryland (1-1) needs 2 FSU losses.
Syracuse (1-1) needs 2 Clemson losses.
Boston College (1-2) needs 3 losses each from FSU and Clemson.
Wake Forest (1-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, 2 BC losses, and an additional loss by FSU.
NC State (0-3) needs Clemson to lose out, 2 Wake Forest losses, and 2 additional losses by FSU.  They are also the closest to getting knocked out, as a Clemson win would pretty much take care of business.  Either way, NC State plays FSU on 10/26, the week after the big Clemson/FSU matchup, so the Wolfpack will most likely be out of contention by November.

Coastal
Virginia Tech (3-0) and Miami (1-0) are still undefeated and control their destiny.
Pitt (2-2) needs 3 losses from both VT and Miami.
UVA (0-2) needs 2 losses from Pitt, and an additional loss each by VT and Miami.
Georgia Tech (2-2) needs 3 losses by both VT and Miami.
UNC (0-2) needs 3 VT losses and a GT loss, plus an additional loss by Miami.
Duke (0-2) needs a Pitt loss, a GT loss, and an additional loss each by VT and Miami.

Magic number:
Atlantic: 5
Coastal: 6
Bowl eligible:  Virginia Tech, Clemson
One win away: Florida State, Miami, Maryland
Two wins away: Duke

No one has denied themselves a bowl, but UNC and UVA look to be trying real hard.

The Road to the ACC Championship appears to run through these games:

October 19:
Florida State @ Clemson
It's probably too early for the Atlantic to clench on this game alone.  But, the current 1-loss teams have already played the teams in this game.

November 9:
Virginia Tech @ Miami
There is a chance that this game could clench the Coastal, in certain scenarios.

You'll notice that I have eliminated some games (other than those played) from this list as the season has progressed the last couple of weeks.  We're down to the last two teams on either side that control their destiny.  Depending on the outcomes of those games, other teams might get a second chance, but it's still too early to see.

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