BCS Thoughts - Early October

In addition to highlighting under-the-radar games each week, I'll take a few looks at the landscape of the BCS Picture as we head into the final set of BCS games.  It's still early, with a few weeks to go before the BCS Standings are first released.  Even so, based on the first few weeks of play, I'll go ahead and share my initial thoughts on the first stretch of this final race.

BCS Championship Picture

With 17 teams still undefeated after Week 6, there are so many things that can happen between now and the first weekend of December.  Each Power Conference still has at least two teams amongst the unbeatens, and even the lower-ranked ones like Missouri and Texas Tech could hypothetically work their way into the picture if they could run the table.  Even Louisville has a shot, though the mightily week schedule might be too much to overcome.

Due to the extra week in the calendar, the season's progressing a little bit slower than before.  But in a few weeks, we should be down to roughly half a dozen unbeatens to consider for the annual Halloween "Odd Man Out" debate.

A few one-loss teams remain in the Top 10.  Given how early it is, it's hard to say just which teams will even be in contention amongst undefeated teams, much less one-loss teams.  I'll go into more detail next time I do one of these posts (probably right around Halloween).

BCS Non-AQ Berth

We're down to two unbeaten non-AQ teams: Northern Illinois and Fresno State.  Practically speaking, it's probably Unbeaten or Bust this time around.  And just like Utah vs Boise in 2008, and Boise vs TCU in 2009 and 2010, I'm looking forward to one last non-AQ battle for the polls - and just seeing if both can remain undefeated long enough for the battle to matter.

Furthermore, only a handful of teams with a single loss remain from this group, further reducing the likelihood that NIU or Fresno would sustain a "good" loss that would keep them in BCS range.  I would guess that if someone could do it with one loss, and it is a longshot as far as I can tell, it would be East Carolina.  With a respectable loss early to Virginia Tech, a 12-1 Pirates squad might be able to make their way into the BCS with 2 other wins over ACC teams and competent opponents in Marshall and the C-USA Championship Game.

BCS At-Large Picture

Given how early it is, and with so many undefeated and one-loss teams, so many possibilities still exist.  Notre Dame could hypothetically run the table and finish high at 10-2, though I predict they stumble again.  In addition, each Power Conference is alive and well so far.

Next time, I'll dive into specifics on how each conference can find itself with 2 BCS bids for this final go-round.