BCS Discussion: End of October

As promised, with two iterations of the BCS Standings released, it's time for my first real discussion of how our final set of BCS bowls are being shaped.  While many point to the controversies that have surrounded the system, and I agree wholeheartedly with the frustration over those controversies, I'll be the first to give credit where it's due.  USC-Texas, Miami-Ohio State, Oklahoma-Boise State, Wisconsin-TCU??  Would have never happened without the BCS.

National Championship
Now, looking at 2013, each of the five "power conferences" remains in the hunt for it all, with the ACC figuring out its final undefeated in this weekend's Miami-Florida State game.  If exactly two of these teams finish unbeaten, they're in.  Alabama, Oregon, FSU/Miami winner, Ohio State, and Baylor: you are indeed the targets!  The interesting thing will be seeing if more than two remain perfect (or...if all of them lose) - but I'll get into that in greater detail next time I do this (probably in another 2 weeks).

BCS Buster
This is easy - a good ol' fashioned two-team race between Fresno State and Northern Illinois. 

Early in the BCS era, Fresno looked like the program working toward that BCS-busting tier.  However, they could never quite get over that last hurdle.  With one final chance to do it, the Bulldogs have a lead in the polls - which is highly significant since only one non-AQ champ is guaranteed a BCS spot if it finishes in the Top 12 (or Top 16 and ahead of an AQ champ).

But don't count out Northern Illinois making a 2nd straight BCS bowl (and strengthening their case as a "power non-contract team" in the new Playoff era).  Even if they're slightly behind in the polls, their computer numbers might end up higher than Fresno's.  A one-loss Ball State still remains on the Huskies' schedule, and possibly a MAC Championship Game against a Buffalo team that *might* end up 10-2, only losses to highly-ranked Ohio State and Baylor.

Just like the Boise/Utah and Boise/TCU races in years past, I look forward to seeing if either or both of these teams can go all the way...and how their final rankings end up.

BCS At-Large
Just as each major conference remains alive for the National Championship Game, each still has a team alive for a BCS At-Large berth.  A breakdown follows:
ACC:
Best bet: 11-1 Clemson. 
Other possibilities: 12-1 Florida State (upset in ACC CG), 11-2 Miami (2 losses to FSU), 12-1 Miami (beat, then lose to FSU)
Big 12:
Best bet: 11-1 Oklahoma, with Texas winning the Big 12's automatic BCS berth
Other possibilities: 11-1 Baylor (loss to Big 12 Champ Oklahoma or Texas) or 11-1 Texas Tech
PAC 12:
Best bet: 10-2 Stanford
Other possibilities: 12-1 Oregon (loss in PAC-12 CG) or 11-1 Oregon (loss to Stanford)
Big Ten:
Best bets: 11-2 Michigan State - Michigan winner, or 10-2 Wisconsin
  Michigan State route: Finish 11-2, with losses to Notre Dame and B1G CG
  Michigan routes: Finish 10-2 (lose to Michigan State) or 11-2 (beat, then lose to OSU)
  Wisconsin route: Win out, resulting in a 10-2 finish (with many believing the Arizona State loss "shouldn't have happened")
SEC: 
Best bets: 10-2 Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU, or South Carolina, or Missouri
Other possibilities: 12-1 Alabama (loss in SEC CG) or 11-1 Alabama (loss to Auburn)
        
Comment:  It's possible NONE of these SEC teams finish with only 2 losses.  So, while we could have seven ranked teams, they could all (besides Alabama) be 9-3 or 10-3 and miss out on the At-Large.

Other At-Large Contenders:

Notre Dame.  With only 2 losses, and a season finale against Stanford, the Irish are in perfect position to play themselves into BCS consideration. I look forward to seeing if that ND-Stanford matchup is between two 9-2 teams both contending for that final At-Large BCS spot.

Non-AQ Team.  If the rankings are crazy enough, it's always possible that Fresno State AND Northern Illinois get BCS bowls (a la Boise State and TCU in 2009).

Louisville.  A long shot, but a remote possibility nonetheless.  If the rankings are indeed crazy enough (i.e. clogged with multiple teams from a conference that can't be picked due to the rule of 2-teams-per-conference), and Central Florida goes as the American's automatic bid, the Cardinals could find themselves in position to pull it off.  Imagine the gnashing of ESPN teeth!

With six weekends left to go, so many things can still shake up.  I look forward to doing this again in a couple weeks, and seeing which teams come, go, and remain in the discussion.