A great two-day stretch of rivalry games and important matchups! Much was solidified (conference races, Group of 5 frontrunner), while some questions still remain for another week.
CFP
Florida State is a winner once again! Back-to-back 12-0 seasons! Oregon and Alabama were impressive in their rivalry games, even if it took 3 and a half quarters for Alabama to put the game out of reach. All three should be shoo-ins as long as they win their championship games.
The real question...at least for now...is about that #4 spot. Of course, one of the Top 3 could lose and add even more drama, but it's this spot that's going to generate most of the discussion over the course of the week. There are 3 main contenders, all with just one loss.
Ohio State: Pro - most wins against bowl teams; have a chance for a 12th win
Con - worst loss among the contenders; now relying on 3rd string QB
Baylor: Pro - best win among the contenders (a victory over ANOTHER contender)
Con - weakest schedule among the contenders
TCU: Pro - best mix of schedule and performance (wins over still-contending Oklahoma and Kansas State, plus a quality out-of-conference win against Minnesota)
Con - a head-to-head loss against a fellow contender
New Year's Six Bowls
Even if the Top 3 lose their championship games, they should still be high enough to stay in range for New Year's Six bowls. Both MSU's (Mississippi State and Michigan State) finish at 10-2 and avoid the chance at another loss; I feel good about the Bulldogs' and Spartans' chances. That's five of the 12 teams.
Boise State is the clear leader among the Group of Five contenders. Marshall is unbeaten no more, and none of the other conference leaders have a particularly outstanding mix of resume and record. I doubt the Broncos will lose to 6-6 Fresno State, so a long discussion on this spot is probably a waste of time. But don't underestimate the chaos in those smaller-conference championship games (2008 Buffalo over 12-0 Ball State, 2011 Southern Miss over 12-0 Houston, 2013 Bowling Green over 12-0 Northern Illinois...though at 10-2 this year, Boise may have already gotten its losses out of the way).
Hypothetically, should the unthinkable happen, the other Group of Five contenders are:
American - Memphis (7-1, 9-3); Cincy and UCF (each 6-1, 8-3) with wins this week [the way I understand the selection process, all co-champs would be considered "champions" eligible for selection]
Conference USA: Winner of CG between Marshall (7-1, 11-1) and Louisiana Tech (7-1, 8-4)
MAC: Winner of Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2) and Bowling Green (5-3, 8-4)
Sun Belt: No one? Georgia Southern isn't bowl eligible due to transition to FBS. I wonder if the Sun Belt could submit Louisiana-Lafayette as its champion to the committee? Even if so, I doubt it matters.
Whether or not Baylor/TCU are in the Playoffs, both should be shoo-ins for New Year's Six bowl games - as long as they win. Ditto for the Buckeyes. If Baylor stumbles, K-State will likely take their place. If Ohio State trips up, Wisconsin should take theirs. Georgia Tech's likely in the Orange Bowl, win or lose (win = automatic as ACC Champ; lose = replacement pick for CFP-bound Florida State). That's four more, for a total of ten.
My guesses for the final two spots: Arizona and Ole Miss. Even with a loss, these Wildcats could very well stay within New Year's Six range. Ole Miss might be able to move up into range, particularly if the higher-ranked teams prevail in their conference title games.
My guesses for the New Year's Six Bowls:
Sugar (semi-final): 1 Alabama vs 4 TCU
Rose (semi-final): 2 Oregon vs 3 Florida State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs Michigan State
Peach: Mississippi State vs Ohio State
Cotton: Baylor vs Ole Miss
Fiesta: Arizona vs Boise State
Other Thoughts
It's hard to believe Thanksgiving 2014 is behind us already! With so much anticipation, discussion, and hypotheticals in the eight months following the BCS Title Game, it's great that there have been so many awesome games and memorable moments. Below is a quick list of my 10 favorite games from the regular season. A full list of "best games from the season" will come after the bowl games and the CFP.
1. Virginia Tech at Ohio State (we Hokies may have gone 6-6, but this will forever be a truly magical night)
2. TCU at Baylor
3. Notre Dame at Florida State
4. Arizona at Oregon
5. Georgia Tech at Georgia
6. Auburn at Mississippi State
7. Nebraska at Michigan State
8. USC at Boston College
9. Florida State at Miami
10. Western Kentucky at Marshall
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