Orange Bowl Look-Ahead

After a few key early November games, I think the most realistic combinations for the Orange Bowl have narrowed significantly.  With three weekends of game action left to go, so much can still happen.  Nevertheless, let's look at a few possibilities we may be seeing on New Year's Eve.
 
ACC
On the ACC side, Georgia Tech has made a very convincing case in its impressive win against Clemson.  One might argue the Yellow Jackets are the front runner.  A competitive game against Georgia, win or lose, and it'll be hard for another ACC team to be ranked between Georgia Tech and Florida State.

ACC Orange Bowl Scenarios:

GT - play respectably against Georgia...win it if at all possible!  With a win against the Bulldogs, the Yellow Jackets are probably in regardless of ACC CG appearance (if Duke loses to UNC or Wake) or result.

Duke - best way: win out.  Upset FSU in the ACC CG and get the automatic spot.  Otherwise, the only way I can see a non-champ Blue Devil team making it is by making the ACC Title Game - but not before seeing GT, Clemson, and Louisville all losing to their in-state SEC foes.

Clemson - best way: Duke loss to UNC or Wake, 2 GT losses.  Beat SC, finish at 9-3, the better record could very well overcome GT's head-to-head.

Louisville - best way: Duke loses to UNC or Wake, 2 GT losses, Clemson loss to SC.  Beat Kentucky!

ACC's Opponent
With a blowout loss at Arizona State and a shocker at home against Northwestern, Notre Dame is clearly out.  The SEC and Big Ten both remain alive for the Orange Bowl spot, with a fairly straightforward path for either conference.

Big Ten - best way: see two SEC teams make the College Football Playoff.  A 10-2 Michigan State (or 11-2 Ohio State, should they get upset again in the Big Ten Title Game) should be ranked higher than the third-highest SEC team.  While the Big Ten Champ can't play here (a displaced champ would have to go to the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta), the SEC carnage has paved a very distinct possibility for the Big Ten to step into Miami Gardens.

SEC - best way: fail to have two teams make the CFP.  The Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl games will have a lot of say in how this shakes up.   A win by Auburn or Ole Miss (really doesn't matter which one) should keep the SEC #2 ahead of Big Ten #2.  Otherwise, the committee may simply place 4 different conference champs in the Top 4, leaving out 11-1 Mississippi State.  In this case, the Bulldogs would be a shoo-in.

Don't forget: when the Big Ten is in the Orange Bowl, the ACC gets the Big Ten's place in the Citrus Bowl.  This could be a good year for the ACC - with FSU in the Playoff, Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl against a Big Ten team, and Clemson/Louisville/Notre Dame against an SEC team in the Citrus Bowl!

Can't wait to see how these last 3 weeks...and all 4 CFP spots...and the entire New Year's Six...shake out!