Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Week 12 wrap up

Everyone makes fun of the ACC for playing hot potato with their divisional championships, but they are the only conference that has both sides narrowed down to two or fewer teams.

The magic number is going away for several conferences since we're down to only two or three teams in certain divisions, and the divide between in and out of contention is obvious.


ACC Wheel of Destiny:  Week 12

Atlantic champion: Florida State (7-0)

Like last year, the Atlantic got wrapped up early.  With FSU winning and Clemson losing, that kept the race from continuing into next week.

Out of contention:
-Clemson (6-2), Boston College (3-3), Louisville (5-3), Syracuse (1-5), NC State (2-5), and Wake Forest (0-6)

Coastal
Unlike last year, the Coastal actually has a very simple set of scenarios.  In fact, there are only two.

Controls destiny:
-Duke (4-2) has a tiebreaker over GT.  If they win out, they clinch the division.  Their remaining games include UNC and Wake Forest.

Unable to control destiny:
-Georgia Tech (6-2) is done with conference play, so they are totally dependent on Duke losing a game in order to clinch.

Out of contention:
-Miami (3-3), UNC (3-3), Pitt (2-4), UVA (2-4), Virginia Tech (2-4)

No need for the tiebreakers link, because either GT will win with best record, or Duke will win based on head-to-head over GT.

Bowl eligible:  Florida State, Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Miami, NC State
One win away:  Virginia Tech, UNC
Two wins away/one loss away from no bowl:  UVA, Pitt
No bowl:  Wake Forest, Syracuse

SEC Roller Coaster:  Week 11

East
Controls destiny:
-Missouri (5-1) lost to Georgia, so they need to win out to clinch.  Remaining games:  Tennessee and Arkansas.

Unable to control destiny:
-Georgia (6-2) has finished conference play.  They can clinch the division with a Missouri loss.

Out of contention:
-Florida (4-4), Kentucky (2-6), Tennessee (2-4), Vanderbilt (0-6), and South Carolina (3-5)

West
Controls destiny:
-Alabama (6-1) has a tiebreaker over Mississippi State.  They lost to Ole Miss.  They clinch the division with a win over Auburn in their final SEC game.

Unable to control destiny:
-Mississippi State (5-1) lost to Alabama, but has a tiebreaker over Auburn.  Their remaining games include Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.  They clinch by winning out plus an Alabama loss.
-Ole Miss (4-2) owns a tiebreaker over Alabama.  Remaining games include Arkansas and Mississippi State.  They can clinch by winning out plus an Alabama loss.

If both Mississippi schools win next week, then it comes down to a combo of the Iron Bowl and the Egg Bowl.  Alabama clinches with a win over Auburn (best record, plus tiebreaker over Mississippi State).  If Alabama loses, then it comes down to the winner of the Egg Bowl.  Mississippi State would have the best record outright.  Ole Miss would force a three way tie of 2-loss teams, and would win the division by virtue of a 2-0 record against the other two teams.

Out of contention:
-Auburn, (4-3), LSU (3-4), Texas A&M (3-4), Arkansas (1-5)

Bowl eligible:  Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Texas A&M
One win away:  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina
One loss away from no bowl:  Kentucky
No bowl:  Vanderbilt

B1G:  Week 12

East
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (6-0) has the tiebreaker over Michigan State.  They clinch the division with a win.  Remaining games include Indiana and Michigan.

Needs help:
-Michigan State (5-1) can clinch the division by winning out and Ohio State losing out.

Out of contention:
-Maryland (3-3), Michigan (3-3), Penn State (2-4), Rutgers (1-4), and Indiana (0-5)

West
Magic number:  4
Out of the 8 games between Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska, only 2 have been played.  There is still a lot to be determined over the final two weeks.

Controls destiny:
-Wisconsin (5-1) has a tiebreaker over Nebraska.
-Minnesota (4-2) has a tiebreaker over Iowa.

Needs help:
-Iowa (4-2) needs a Minnesota loss.
-Nebraska (4-2) needs two Wisconsin losses.

Out of contention: 
-Purdue (1-5), Illinois (1-5), Northwestern (2-4)

Bowl eligible: Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Penn State
Two wins away: Illinois
No bowl:  Purdue

Pac-12:  Week 12

North champion:  Oregon (6-1)
Worst possible record is 6-3, which cannot be matched by any other team.

Out of contention:  Stanford (3-4), Washington (2-5), Oregon State (2-5), California (3-5), Washington State (2-5)

South
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-UCLA (5-2) has tiebreakers over Arizona State and Arizona.  Remaining games:  USC and Stanford.

Needs help:
-Arizona State (5-2) needs a UCLA loss.  They have tiebreakers over USC and Utah.  Remaining games:  Washington State and Arizona.
-USC (6-2) needs an Arizona State loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona.  Remaining game:  UCLA.
-Arizona (5-2) needs a loss from USC and UCLA.  Remaining games:  Utah and Arizona State.

Unable to control destiny:
-Utah (4-3) needs a loss each from Arizona State, USC, and UCLA.  They have tiebreakers over UCLA and USC.  Remaining games:  Arizona and Colorado.

In a hypothetical 5 way tie at 6-3, Utah would come out ahead by virtue of a 3-1 record over the other teams.

The biggest piece of the Pac-12 South puzzle will fall into place this week as USC plays UCLA.  A USC win would put them at 7-2 in conference, and eliminate UCLA and Utah (by virtue of record) as well as Arizona (by virtue of head-to-head).  It would come down to a two team race of USC or Arizona State, with Az State in control.

Out of contention:
-Colorado (0-7)

Bowl eligible:  Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, UCLA, USC
One win away:  Washington*, Stanford, California, Oregon State
No bowl:  Washington State, Colorado

*Washington has 6 wins, but played 2 FCS teams, only one of which can count towards bowl eligibility.

Big 12 Roulette:  Week 12

Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Baylor (5-1) has tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, and Kansas.  They lost to West Virginia. 

Needs help:
-TCU (6-1) needs a Baylor loss.  They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma, West Virginia, and K-State. 
-Kansas State (5-1) needs a TCU loss.  They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma and Texas.

Unable to control destiny:
-Oklahoma (4-3) lost to TCU, Baylor, and K-State.  They have tiebreakers over West Virginia and Texas.
-Texas (5-3) lost to Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas State.  They have a tiebreaker over West Virginia.
-West Virginia (4-3) lost to TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas.  They have a tiebreaker over Baylor.

Any of these 3-loss teams would be eliminated by a loss or two wins by Baylor, TCU, or K-State.

Out of contention:
-Oklahoma State (3-4), Texas Tech (1-6), Kansas (1-6), and Iowa State (0-6)

Bowl eligible:  Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas
One win away:  Oklahoma State
No bowl:  Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas

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