Sunday, November 9, 2014

Week 11 wrap up

Conference races seem to get clearer, but the overall playoff picture keeps getting muddier.

I've added a new category:  Unable to control destiny.  Those are teams who have reached the maximum number of losses that would tie the most potential losses the leading team could achieve.  While that team might still have a chance, they are completely dependent on the other teams mostly losing.

For instance, Ohio State is 5-0 and Michigan is 3-3.  If Ohio State loses out and Michigan wins out (both end at 5-3), Michigan might have a shot with tiebreakers.  However, they won't know that until after they play the final game (which in this case would actually be against each other).

Dumbest play of the week:  Texas A&M backed up to their goalline on 3rd and long, and they decide to pitch the ball backwards to the running back.  They're lucky they got out of the end zone.


ACC Wheel of Destiny:  Week 11

Atlantic
Magic number:  3

Controls destiny:
-Florida State (6-0) has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Clemson.  They can clinch with one win or  a Clemson loss.

Needs help:
-Clemson (6-1) can take the division if FSU loses out.

Out of contention:
 -Boston College (3-3), Louisville (5-3), Syracuse (1-5), NC State (1-5), and Wake Forest (0-5)

Coastal
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Duke (4-1) has a tiebreaker over GT.  They lost to Miami.

 Needs help:
-Georgia Tech (5-2) needs 2 Duke losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Miami, but lost to UNC.
-Miami (3-2) needs a GT loss and a Duke loss.  They have tiebreakers over Duke and UNC.
-UNC (2-3) needs 2 Miami losses and a GT loss.  They have a tiebreaker over GT.

Out of contention:
-Pitt (2-3), UVA (2-4), Virginia Tech (1-4)

Even if Pitt wins out and ends at 5-3, they could be tied at the top of the Coastal, but any tie would have to involve GT.  There are four options for a Pitt tie:

1.) two way tie (Pitt/GT):  GT wins on head-to-head.
2.) three way tie (Pitt/GT/Duke):  Pitt lost to both teams.  Duke wins at 2-0 against the others.
3.) three way tie (Pitt/GT/Miami):  GT beat both teams, so they would win on head-to-head.
4.) four way tie (Pitt/GT/Duke/Miami):  Duke and GT are 2-1, where Miami and Pitt would be 1-2.  Duke wins on head-to-head.

Now, if you're looking just at win/loss numbers, UNC plays Pitt next week.  The loser is automatically eliminated, but both teams would be eliminated with a GT win.

I'll keep this link here for another week as it could come into play in the Coastal:  ACC Tiebreakers

Bowl eligible:  Florida State, Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Miami
One win away:  NC State
Two wins away:  Virginia Tech, UVA, Pitt, UNC
One loss away from no bowl:  UVA
No bowl:  Wake Forest, Syracuse

SEC Roller Coaster:  Week 11

East
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Missouri (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Florida.  They lost to Georgia.

Needs help:
-Georgia (5-2) needs a Missouri loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Missouri.  They lost to South Carolina and Florida.
-Florida (4-3) needs Missouri to lose out and a Georgia loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Georgia.  They lost to Missouri.

Out of contention:
-Kentucky (2-5), Tennessee (1-4), Vanderbilt (0-6), and South Carolina (2-5)

West
Magic number:  3
(Mississippi State/Alabama winner will have at least 6 wins.)

Controls destiny:
-Mississippi State (5-0) owns tiebreakers against LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn.
-Alabama (5-1) has tiebreakers over Texas A&M and LSU.  They lost to Ole Miss.

Needs help:
-Auburn (4-2) needs 2 Mississippi State losses, but has tiebreakers over LSU and Ole Miss.  They lost to Texas A&M.
-Ole Miss (4-2) owns a tiebreaker over Alabama and Texas A&M.  They lost to LSU and Auburn.

Out of contention:
-LSU (3-3), Texas A&M (3-3), Arkansas (0-5)

Bowl eligible:  Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Texas A&M
One win away:  Kentucky, Florida
Two wins away: South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas
No bowl:  Vanderbilt

B1G:  Week 11

East
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State.

Needs help:
-Michigan State (4-1) needs 2 Ohio State losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Michigan.
-Maryland (3-2) needs 3 Ohio State losses and extra losses from Michigan State.

Unable to control destiny:
-Michigan (3-3) lost to Rutgers and Michigan State.

Out of contention:
-Penn State (2-4), Rutgers (1-4), and Indiana (0-5)

West
Magic number:  4
Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have yet to play each other.  The winner of any of those games will have at least 5 wins.

Controls destiny:
-Nebraska (4-1) has yet to play any other team still in contention.
-Minnesota (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Iowa.  They lost to Illinois.
-Wisconsin (4-1) lost to Northwestern.

Needs help:
-Iowa (3-2) needs 2 Minnesota losses.

Out of contention: 
-Purdue (1-5), Illinois (1-4), Northwestern (2-4)

Bowl eligible: Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin
One win away: Rutgers, Penn State
Two wins away: Illinois
No bowl:  Purdue

Pac-12:  Week 11

North champion:  Oregon (6-1)
Worst possible record is 6-3, which can only be matched by Stanford.  Oregon has the tiebreaker over Stanford.

Out of contention:  Stanford (3-3), Washington (2-4), Oregon State (1-5), California (3-4), Washington State (2-5)

South
Magic number:  4
(Winner of UCLA/USC will have at least 6 wins.)

Controls destiny:
-Arizona State (5-1) has tiebreakers over USC and Utah.  They lost to UCLA.

Needs help:
-UCLA (5-2) needs an Arizona State loss.  They have tiebreakers over Arizona State and Arizona.
-USC (5-2) needs 2 Arizona State losses and a Utah loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona.
-Arizona (4-2) needs a loss from USC and UCLA.

Unable to control destiny:
-Utah (3-3) needs 2 Arizona State losses, and a loss from both USC and UCLA.  They have tiebreakers over UCLA and USC.

In a hypothetical 5 way tie at 6-3, Utah would come out ahead by virtue of a 3-1 record over the other teams.

Out of contention:
-Colorado (0-7)

Bowl eligible:  Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, UCLA, USC
One win away:  Washington*, Stanford, California
Two wins away:  Oregon State
No bowl:  Washington State, Colorado

*Washington has 6 wins, but played 2 FCS teams, only one of which can count towards bowl eligibility.

Big 12 Roulette:  Week 11

Magic number:  4
(Winner of Baylor/Kansas State will have at least 6 wins.)

Controls destiny:
-Baylor (5-1) has tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Texas, TCU, and Kansas.  They lost to West Virginia.

Needs help:
-TCU (5-1) needs a Baylor loss.  They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and K-State.
-Kansas State (5-1) needs a TCU loss.  They have tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma State.

Unable to control destiny:
-Oklahoma State (3-3) lost to TCU, K-State, and West Virginia.
-Oklahoma (3-3) lost to TCU, Baylor, and K-State.  They have tiebreakers over West Virginia and Texas.
-Texas (4-3) lost to Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas State.  They have a tiebreaker over West Virginia
-West Virginia (3-3) lost to TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas.  They have tiebreakers over Baylor and Oklahoma State.

Any of these 3-loss teams would be eliminated by a loss or two wins by Baylor, TCU, or K-State.

Out of contention:
-Texas Tech (1-5), Kansas (1-5), and Iowa State (0-6)

Bowl eligible:  Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma
One win away:  Oklahoma State, Texas
One loss away from no bowl:  Texas Tech, Kansas
No bowl:  Iowa State

No comments:

Post a Comment