Monday, November 3, 2014

Chasing Oranges: ACC Style

Chip and I have both discussed the various possibilities for the Orange Bowl.  While the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame all have a collective say on who plays against the ACC, I thought I'd dig into the teams within the ACC and map out some possible roads to Miami Gardens.
 
As we've mentioned before, the Orange Bowl is home to the ACC Champ unless (i) it is serving as a CFP Semi-Final, or (ii) the ACC Champ is in the Top 4.  This year, (i) does not apply, but Florida State is well in the running for (ii) to apply.  Should this happen, then the Orange Bowl simply takes the next ACC team to fill the champ's place.

Right now, I see four contenders vying for "2nd Best":

Clemson
Currently the front-runner (for "2nd best", that is), the Tigers are managing to win games on the backs of their defense.  Clemson made their way into the initial CFP rankings, and I expect the second set to feature them as well.  Win out, and a 10-2 Clemson team should be a no-brainer.
 
Games remaining:
  • Thursday at Wake Forest 
  • Sat. 11/15 at Georgia Tech
  • Sat. 11/22 vs Georgia State
  • Sat. 11/29 vs South Carolina
Duke
The other team in the ACC that is ranked, though currently ranked below Clemson despite one fewer loss.  If Duke just keeps winning, and plays a respectable game against FSU, I can see the 11-2 Blue Devils finishing as ACC #2 - particularly if Clemson and Georgia Tech do manage to stumble against their in-state foes once again.

Games remaining:
  • Saturday at Syracuse
  • Sat. 11/15 vs Virginia Tech
  • Thurs. 11/20 vs North Carolina
  • Sat. 11/29 vs Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
5-2-5 could be the magic number for the Yellow Jackets this year; win 5, lose 2, win 5 more.  That would put the bees at 10-2 and in a prime position for that Orange Bowl spot.  To do it, they need to get past three games - none of which look to be gimmes (though all certainly winnable).

Games remaining:
  • Saturday at NC State
  • Saturday 11/15 vs Clemson
  • Saturday 11/29 at Georgia
Miami
The biggest longshot, but also the one with the most potential.  The Hurricanes can't win 10 in the regular season, but a respectable 9-3 would mean several things: a win over arch-rival Florida State, a 6-game winning streak, and loads of positive momentum.  Late-season losses by Georgia Tech and Clemson, along with an ACC CG loss by Duke, could be just the right recipe for Miami to make it back to New Year's Day.

Games remaining:
  • Saturday 11/15 vs Florida State
  • Saturday 11/22 at Virginia
  • Saturday 11/29 vs Pittsburgh

The Road

So I mentioned that there are roads to the Orange Bowl as ACC #2. Well, here they are:
Clemson: In control, win remaining games. 
Duke: Win remaining games, hope Clemson loses 1 game, remain competitive in ACC CG.  At 11-2, Duke has a chance - particularly if GT, Clemson, and Miami are all at 9-3 or worse.
Georgia Tech: Win remaining games, hope Duke loses exactly 1 regular season game and ACC CG.  Hope Miami loses to FSU (4th Miami loss) so Duke can make ACC CG and pick up their 3rd loss.
Miami: Beat FSU and win out, finishing at 9-3 and on a 6-game win streak.  Hope GT/Clemson winner lose to their in-state rival, while Duke gets dominated in ACC CG.

Also, for whomever reaches the ACC CG as the Coastal Champ: win the game and get the automatic Orange Bowl spot as ACC #1.

And of course, Florida State.  Two possible roads, both of consolation. 
- Stumble (Miami?  BC?  Florida?), but still win the ACC CG to earn automatic berth.  12-1 might still get FSU into CFP, 11-2 will definitely knock them out.
- Lose to Duke in ACC CG, and have the CFP Committee rank the 12-1 Blue Devils in the Top 4. In this case, FSU would likely be ACC #2 and in the Orange Bowl themselves.

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