2015 Season Thoughts: Post-October

I've been a little busier this Fall, which has taken me away from a weekly feature like I had done in recent years.  But we've come to the part of the season that has everyone on high alert: the end of October!



So far this season, the number of highly-ranked matchups has been minimal (3 Top 10 showdowns through Halloween...Oregon/Michigan State; Alabama/Texas A&M; LSU/Florida...two of these pairs features a team no longer even in the Top 20!).  I thought this playoff era was supposed to bring more competitive games?

Ahh, we have them.  It just so happens that the various conference either foresaw or lucked into heavily back-loaded schedules in 2015.  Three unbeaten Big 12 teams?  All in November.  FSU/Clemson and LSU/Bama?  November.  Ohio State/Michigan State, and even Memphis/Houston?  November.

Each of the five Power Conference has quite the viable path to the CFP.  Four still feature an undefeated team, and the one that doesn't (the PAC-12) could still find itself with a couple of 11-1 teams facing off in Santa Clara.  Notre Dame still has a great shot, and I'll even throw the American Conference up there as at least having a chance.


COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

As far as I can tell entering November, here's where I see each conference with regards to the CFP.

ACC

• Best chance: Clemson.  At 13-0, with wins over Notre Dame and FSU, this should be a no-brainer.  Just watch out for Rivalry Week!
• Also Possible: Florida State (12-1 with wins over Clemson and potential SEC Champ Florida would make the debates quite compelling) or UNC (weak schedule, pretty bad loss to South Carolina...but other conferences can still knock themselves out to make room for a 12-1 Tarheel squad).

Big 12

• Best chance: Any of the three unbeatens (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State) if they can get to 12-0.
• Also Possible: Oklahoma at 11-1.  Pretty bad loss to Texas, but at least they scheduled a good OOC opponent and won it at Tennessee.

Big Ten

• Best chance: Once again, any of the three unbeatens (Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa) at 13-0.
• Also Possible: Michigan at 11-2.  This would require a bit of chaos from a couple of other conferences.  I suppose a 12-1 Ohio State with a loss to Michigan, or a 12-1 Michigan State with a loss to Penn State would also stand a chance.

PAC-12

• Best chance: Stanford.  Big win against USC, more great opportunities with Oregon, Notre Dame, and the PAC-12 CG still ahead. 12-1 would be tough to ignore, as long as another conference is also void of an unbeaten.
• Also Possible: Utah at 12-1, though other 1-loss teams might find themselves with better resumes and on-the-field play.  Also UCLA, if they can hold at 2 losses, avenge their loss to Stanford, and find chaos elsewhere.

SEC

• Best chance: LSU, Alabama, and Florida.  Any of the three will have a fantastic resume if they win out.  LSU probably even has some wiggle room to lose a game (preferably not Alabama, though, with the SEC West likely in the balance).  Bama and Florida do NOT.
• Also possible: I think it's one of these three teams or bust.  If Ole Miss wins out, I think an undefeated Memphis would trump a 2-loss Ole Miss.

Others

• Best chance: Notre Dame at 11-1.  Only loss a close one, by 2 points at Clemson.  A win at Stanford would be a tremendous end to the regular season for the Irish, and would likely allow ND to trump the PAC-12 champ.
• Also possible: Memphis at 13-0.  The better Ole Miss does, the more I like Memphis's chances.  A mid-November showdown with Houston looks like it could be one of the games of 2015, which would provide another quality win to the Tigers' resume.  Houston's P5 wins (Louisville and Vandy) aren't quite as shiny as Memphis's win over Ole Miss, but I won't totally count out the Cougars if a couple of P5 conferences stumble down the stretch.

NEW YEAR'S SIX

Which teams still have a lot to play for, even if the CFP or a conference title get out of reach?  My thoughts on possible NY6 at-large berths:

ACC:

• Clemson at 11-1 with the loss to FSU, or at 12-1 with a loss in the ACC CG.  
• Maybe FSU at 10-2 (loss at Clemson, W at Florida) or maybe 11-2 (W's at Clemson and at UF, L to 12-1 UNC in ACC CG).  
• UNC has a shot at 11-2 (particularly if the ACC CG loss is to 13-0 CFP-bound Clemson), but I think it's a longshot due to the weak schedule strength.

Big 12:

• Oklahoma State, Baylor or TCU at 11-1, if their lone loss is to an undefeated team or Oklahoma.  Perhaps two of the three, if there's a three-way tie at 11-1.  
• Maybe Oklahoma at 10-2.

Big Ten:

• The Ohio State/Michigan State loser, if 11-1.  The winner, if 12-1.  
• Iowa, if 12-1.  
• Michigan, if 10-2.  
• Penn State, Wisconsin or Northwestern at 10-2, if enough chaos happens elsewhere (the problem is, even with the merit-based New Year's Six, there are only enough bowl spots to go around).

PAC-12:

• Stanford at 11-2, with that second loss coming in the PAC-12 CG.  
• Utah at 11-2.  
• USC at 9-3, if enough chaos happens.

SEC:

• Alabama/LSU loser, if they win out.  
• The winner, if their next loss is to Florida in the SEC CG.  
• Florida, if 11-2.  
• Possibly Texas A&M or Mississippi State, if either can make it to 10-2.

Others

• Notre Dame at 11-1 will be a shoo-in  10-2 should also be.  The way I see it, BC and Wake are near-gimmes.  If ND gets upset by Pitt, the win over highly-ranked Stanford will surely make up for it.  If ND beats Pitt, and then is on the wrong end of the Stanford showdown, the Irish should still be in NY6 range.  Just don't lose to BC or Wake!
• Toledo.  It'll be interesting to see how high the Rockets can go if they remain undefeated, yet end up behind the American Champ and thus, fail to nab the "automatic" NY6 slot.  Might we see TWO Group of Five teams representing in the New Year's Six?  I'm sure Toledo would love to see Arkansas knock off an SEC "big boy" before season's end to help their resume.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I just have a few more questions as we enter the final month of the regular season:

• If Clemson remains a CFP contender, along with Notre Dame and another team, will the other team get a "benefit of the doubt", since they didn't already "have their chance" with Clemson?
• Will the committee do anything to "compensate" for some things that happened last year (head-to-head not coming into play until the end, switching idle teams, giving the 13th game an inherent "value"), or emphasize that each season stands on its own?
• Just how many more P5 schools will part ways with their head coaches?  We've got quite a bit already, barely into November.
• Just as I did at the end of September, here's my Top 10 - in no particular order:
  Clemson; LSU; Baylor; TCU; Michigan State; Ohio State; Iowa; Memphis; Florida; Notre Dame
• A personal one (personal to my alma mater, that is): how will the Frank Beamer era end at Virginia Tech, given today's announcement of Frank's end-of-season retirement?  Can the Hokies go 2-1 against GT, UNC, and UVA and finish strong in one final bowl game for Frank?  Only the UNC game is in Blacksburg, and I'm sure it will be quite the show for Frank's home finale.