Week 11 wrap up

No one's making it easy this weekend.  I do believe that every team that could have clinched this weekend ended up losing, keeping the races open.  We have a few contenders that are right on the bubble that have been eliminated due to tiebreakers.

ACC Wheel of Destiny

Atlantic Champion:  Clemson (7-0)
At this point, Clemson simply has more conference wins than anyone else.

Out of contention:
-Florida State (6-2), Louisville (5-2), Syracuse (1-5), NC State (2-4), Wake Forest (1-5), and Boston College (0-7)

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UNC (6-0) has the tiebreaker over Pitt.  They can clinch the division with a win OR a Pitt loss.

Needs help:
-Pitt (5-1) can clinch the division only by winning out AND UNC losing out.

There are seven scenarios in the ACC Coastal.

Scenario #1:  UNC finishes 8-0
Setup:  UNC wins out
Outcome:  UNC wins division, best record

Scenario #2:  UNC finishes 7-1
Setup:  UNC goes 1-1 in final two games
Outcome:  UNC wins division, best record or head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt

Scenario #3:  UNC finishes 6-2, Pitt finishes 5-3

Setup:  UNC and Pitt both lose out
Outcome:  UNC wins division, best record

Scenario #4:  UNC finishes 6-2, Pitt finishes 6-2
Setup:  UNC loses out, Pitt goes 1-1 in final two games
Outcome:  UNC wins division, head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt

Scenario #5:  UNC finishes 6-2, Pitt finishes 7-1

Setup:  UNC loses out, Pitt wins out
Outcome:  Pitt wins division, best record

Out of contention:

-Miami (3-3), Duke (3-3), Virginia Tech (3-3), UVA (2-4), Georgia Tech (1-6)

Key games:
UNC at VT, November 21

Bowl eligible:  FSU, Clemson, Duke, Pitt, UNC, NC State, Miami, Louisville
One win away:  Virginia Tech
No bowl:  Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, UVA

SEC

East Champion:  Florida (7-1)

Out of contention:
-Georgia (5-3), Vanderbilt (2-4), Tennessee (2-3), Kentucky (2-6), Missouri (1-4), South Carolina (1-6)

West
With Alabama at 6-1 and only one game left, we are down to six scenarios involving the teams still in contention.  LSU, Ole Miss, and Arkansas are all 4-2, so if any of them have a chance, they need Alabama to lose and then force a tie.  Since LSU and Ole Miss face off next week, there is no chance of a four way tie.

Scenario #1:  Alabama finishes 7-1
Setup:  Alabama beats Auburn
Outcome:  Alabama wins division, best record

Two way ties at 6-2

Scenario #2:  Alabama/LSU
Setup:  Alabama loses, LSU wins out, Arkansas loses a game
Outcome:  Alabama wins on head-to-head

Scenario #3:  Alabama/Ole Miss
Setup:  Alabama loses, Ole Miss wins out, Arkansas loses a game
Outcome:  Ole Miss wins on head-to-head

Scenario #4:  Alabama/Arkansas
Setup:  Alabama loses, Arkansas wins out, LSU and Ole Miss each lose a game
Outcome:  Alabama wins on head-to-head

Three way ties at 6-2

Scenario #5:  Alabama/LSU/Arkansas
Setup:  Alabama loses, LSU and Arkansas win out
Outcome:  Alabama wins, 2-0 against other teams

Scenario #6:  Alabama/Ole Miss/Arkansas
Setup:  Alabama loses, Ole Miss and Arkansas win out
Outcome:  Ole Miss wins.  Each team would be 1-1 against each other.  Divisional records would be 5-1 for Ole Miss, 4-2 for both Alabama and Arkansas.

Thus, LSU and Arkansas are officially out of contention.

Alabama clinches the division with a win OR Ole Miss loss.

Ole Miss can clinch the division with two wins AND an Alabama loss.

Out of contention:  LSU (4-2), Arkansas (4-2), Mississippi State (3-3), Texas A&M (3-3), Auburn (2-4)

Key games:

LSU at Ole Miss, November 21

Alabama at Auburn, November 28

Ole Miss at Mississippi State, November 28

Bowl eligible:  Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas
One win away:  Auburn, Missouri
Edge of no bowl:  Vanderbilt, Kentucky
No bowl:  South Carolina

B1G
East
There appear to be four contenders:  Ohio State (6-0), Michigan State (5-1), Michigan (5-1), and Penn State (4-2).

Ohio State has a tiebreaker over Penn State.  Michigan State has a tiebreaker over Michigan.

The Big Ten has conveniently backloaded their schedule.  Over the final two weeks, the four contenders play each other.

Key games:
-Michigan State at Ohio State, November 21
-Michigan at Penn State, November 21
-Ohio State at Michigan, November 28
-Penn State at Michigan State, November 28

Scenario #1:  Ohio State finishes 8-0
Setup:  Ohio State wins out
Outcome:  Ohio State wins division, best record

Scenario #2:  Ohio State finishes 7-1
Setup:  Ohio State beats MSU, Penn State beats Michigan, Michigan beats Ohio State
Outcome:  Ohio State wins division, best record.  Michigan and winner of MSU/PSU would be 6-2. Loser of MSU/PSU would be 5-3.

Two way ties at 7-1:

Scenario #3:  Ohio State/Michigan State
Setup:  Michigan State wins out, Ohio State beats Michigan
Outcome:  Michigan State wins division, head-to-head over Ohio State

Scenario #4:  Ohio State/Michigan
Setup:  Michigan wins out, Ohio State beats Michigan State
Outcome:  Michigan wins division, head-to-head over Ohio State

Scenario #5:  Michigan State/Michigan

Setup:  Michigan State and Michigan both win out (forcing Ohio State to 6-2)
Outcome:  Michigan State wins division, head-to-head over Michigan

Three way ties at 6-2:

Scenario #6:  Ohio State/Michigan State/Michigan
Setup:  Ohio State loses out, Michigan State beats Penn State, Penn State beats Michigan (PSU finishes 5-3)
Outcome:  Michigan State wins division, 2-0 against other teams

Four way tie at 6-2:

Scenario #7:  Ohio State/Michigan State/Penn State/Michigan
Setup:  Ohio State loses out, Penn State wins out
Outcome:  Penn State wins division.  Among the four, PSU and MSU would be 2-1, while OSU and Michigan would be 1-2.  PSU wins on head-to-head over MSU.

Due to the configuration of the schedule, the following ties are not possible:

-any three way tie at 7-1

-any tie at 6-2 without Ohio State

-any three way tie involving both Ohio State and Penn State -- the only scenario possible is the 4 way tie.

In Week 12, Ohio State can clinch with a win AND a Penn State win over Michigan.

No other teams can clinch in week 12.

Penn State will be eliminated with a loss OR Ohio State win.

Out of contention:

-Rutgers (1-6), Maryland (0-6), Indiana (0-6)

West
Controls destiny:
-Iowa (6-0) has tiebreakers over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

Trailing behind:
-Wisconsin (5-1) and Northwestern (4-2) both lost to Iowa, and face off next week.

Scenario #1:  Iowa finishes 8-0
Setup:  Iowa wins out
Outcome:  Iowa wins division, best record

Scenario #2:  Iowa and Wisconsin tie at 7-1
Setup:  Iowa goes 1-1, Wisconsin wins out
Outcome:  Iowa wins division, head-to-head over Wisconsin

Scenario #3:  Iowa finishes 7-1, Wisconsin finishes 6-2 or 5-3
Setup:  Iowa goes 1-1, Wisconsin loses at least one game
Outcome:  Iowa wins division, best record

Scenario #4:  Iowa finishes 6-2, Wisconsin finishes 7-1
Setup:  Iowa loses out, Wisconsin wins out
Outcome:  Wisconsin wins division, best record

Scenario #5:  Iowa and Wisconsin tie at 6-2
Setup:  Iowa loses out, Wisconsin goes 1-1, Northwestern loses at least 1 game
Outcome:  Iowa wins division, head-to-head over Wisconsin

Scenario #6:  Iowa/Wisconsin/Northwestern tie at 6-2
Setup:  Iowa loses out, NW wins out, Wisconsin goes 1-1
Outcome:  Iowa wins division, 2-0 record against other teams

Scenario #7:  Iowa and Northwestern tie at 6-2
Setup:  Iowa and Wisconsin both lose out, Northwestern wins out
Outcome:  Iowa wins division, head-to-head over Northwestern

Iowa can clinch the division with a win OR Wisconsin loss.

Wisconsin can clinch the division by winning out AND Iowa losing out.

Northwestern does not own any tiebreakers, and are eliminated.

Key games:

-Northwestern at Wisconsin, November 21

-Purdue at Iowa, November 21

Out of contention:

-Northwestern (4-2), Illinois (2-4), Nebraska (3-4), Minnesota (1-5), Purdue (1-5).

Bowl eligible:  Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan
One win away:  Illinois
Edge of no bowl:  Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota
No bowl:  Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

Pac-12

North
Scenario #1:  Stanford finishes 8-1
Setup:  Stanford wins their final game
Outcome:  Stanford wins division, best record

Scenario #2:  Stanford finishes 7-2 with no tie
Setup:  Stanford wins their final game, Oregon and Washington State lose at least one game each
Outcome:  Stanford wins division, best record

Scenario #3:  Stanford/Oregon tie at 7-2
Setup:  Stanford loses, Oregon wins out
Outcome:  Oregon wins division, head-to-head over Stanford

Scenario #4:  Stanford/Washington State tie at 7-2
Setup:  Stanford loses, Washington State wins out, Oregon loses at least one game
Outcome:  Stanford wins division, head-to-head over Washington State

Scenario #5:  Stanford/Oregon/Washington State tie at 7-2
Setup:  Stanford loses, Oregon and Washington State win out
Outcome:  Oregon wins division, all three teams 1-1, divisional record of 4-1 over 3-2 record of Stanford and Washington State

Stanford (7-1) can clinch the division with a win.
Oregon (5-2) can clinch the division with two wins AND a Stanford loss.

Out of contention:
-Washington State (5-2), Washington (2-5), Cal (3-4), Oregon State (0-7)

South
Controls destiny:
-USC (5-2) has a tiebreaker over Utah, and plays UCLA in two weeks.
-UCLA (4-3) has yet to play USC or Utah.

Trailing behind:
-Utah (5-2) lost to USC, and plays UCLA next week.

Scenario #1:  USC finishes 7-2 (Utah does not)
Setup:  USC wins out, Utah loses a game
Outcome:  USC wins division, best record

Two way tie at 7-2:

Scenario #2:  USC/Utah
Setup:  USC and Utah win out (forcing UCLA to lose out)
Outcome:  USC wins division, head-to-head over Utah

Three way tie at 6-3:

Scenario #3:  USC/UCLA/Utah
Setup:  UCLA wins out, USC and Utah win other games
Outcome:  UCLA wins division, 2-0 against other teams

Two way ties at 6-3:

Scenario #4:  USC/UCLA
Setup:  UCLA wins out, USC wins other game, Utah loses out
Outcome:  UCLA wins division, head-to-head over USC

Scenario #5:  UCLA/Utah
Setup:  UCLA wins out, Utah wins other game, USC loses out
Outcome:  UCLA wins division, head-to-head over Utah

Scenario #6:  Utah/USC
Setup:  Utah and USC both go 1-1, UCLA loses at least one game
Outcome:  USC wins division, head-to-head over Utah

No ties are possible at 5-4.  For UCLA to end at 5-4, then USC or Utah is going to get a 6th win.  If USC and Utah both lose out, then UCLA goes 6-3.  And of course, if only one of USC or Utah loses out, that means the other team has won a game, pushing them to 6 wins.

USC can clinch the division this week with a win AND a UCLA loss.  If USC and UCLA both win or both lose this week, then their match up the following week becomes a winner take all game.

Out of contention:
-Utah (5-2), Colorado (1-6), Arizona (3-5), Arizona State (3-4)

Key games:
-UCLA at Utah, November 21
-USC at Oregon, November 21
-UCLA at USC, November 28

Bowl eligible:  Utah, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona, Cal
One win away:  Arizona State
Edge of no bowl:  Washington
No bowl:  Oregon State, Colorado

Big 12
Controls destiny:
-Oklahoma State (7-0) has a tiebreaker over TCU.
-Oklahoma (6-1) has a tiebreaker over Baylor.

Needs help:
-TCU (6-1) needs two Oklahoma State losses.
-Baylor (5-1) needs an Oklahoma losses.

Key games:
-TCU at Oklahoma, November 21
-Baylor at Oklahoma State, November 21
-Baylor at TCU, November 27
-Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, November 28

If Oklahoma State beats Baylor, then Baylor and the loser of TCU/Oklahoma will both be out of contention.  If Oklahoma wins in that scenario, then their game against Oklahoma State the following week will be the de facto Big 12 championship game.  If TCU wins, then Oklahoma State would clinch the conference.

Oklahoma State can clinch with a win AND an Oklahoma loss.

"Bedlam" (Oklahoma at Oklahoma State) can be a de facto championship game if Oklahoma wins this week, regardless of the Oklahoma State/Baylor outcome.

Single team finishes at 9-0

Scenario #1:  Oklahoma State
Setup:  Oklahoma State wins out
Outcome:  Oklahoma State champ, best record

Single team finishes at 8-1

Scenario #2:  Oklahoma State
Setup:  Oklahoma State goes 1-1, everyone else loses at least one game
Outcome:  Oklahoma State champ, best record

Scenario #3:  TCU
Setup:  TCU wins out, Oklahoma State loses out
Outcome:  TCU champ, best record

Scenario #4:  Oklahoma
Setup:  Oklahoma wins out, Oklahoma State loses out, Baylor loses to TCU or Texas
Outcome:  Oklahoma champ, best record

Scenario #5:  Baylor
Setup:  Baylor wins out, Oklahoma State loses out, TCU beats Oklahoma
Outcome:  Baylor champ, best record

Two way ties at 8-1

Scenario #6:  Oklahoma State/Oklahoma
Setup:  both teams win on 11/21, Oklahoma wins Bedlam
Outcome:  Oklahoma champ, head-to-head

Scenario #7:  Oklahoma State/TCU
Setup:  TCU wins out, Oklahoma State goes 1-1 (specific outcomes do not matter)
Outcome:  Oklahoma State champ, head-to-head

Scenario #8:  Oklahoma State/Baylor
Setup:  Baylor wins out, Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma
Outcome:  Baylor champ, head-to-head

Scenario #9:  Oklahoma/Baylor
Setup:  Oklahoma and Baylor win out
Outcome:  Oklahoma champ, head-to-head

Four way tie at 7-2

Scenario #10:  Oklahoma State/Oklahoma/TCU/Baylor
Setup:  Oklahoma State loses out, TCU beats Oklahoma, Baylor beats TCU, Texas beats Baylor
Outcome:  Oklahoma champ, head-to-head over Baylor

Oklahoma State and TCU would be 1-2 against the group, while Oklahoma and Baylor would be 2-1.  Oklahoma then wins based on their head-to-head over Baylor last week.

There cannot be a three or four way tie at 8-1, since it is impossible for the current 1 loss teams to all win out.  Two way 8-1 ties involving TCU/Baylor or TCU/Oklahoma are impossible.

Out of contention:
-Texas (3-4), Iowa State (2-5), Texas Tech (3-5), Kansas State (0-6), West Virginia (2-4), and Kansas (0-7)

Bowl eligible:  TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
One win away:  West Virginia
Edge of no bowl:  Kansas State, Texas
Not bowl eligible:  Kansas, Iowa State

American
East
Controls destiny:
-Temple (5-1) can clinch the division by winning out.

Needs help:
-South Florida (4-2) can clinch the division if they win out and Temple loses at least one conference game.

Still in contention:
-Cincinnati (3-3) can only have a shot at the championship if they share a tie at 5-3.  Since Temple is already 5-1, Temple would be involved in any tie.  Temple already has the head-to-head, and would a two team tiebreaker.

Cincy can win the three way ties against Temple and either USF or UConn.  Cincy would also win the four way tie.  We detailed all of the possible ties last week, and they are still in effect this week.

Out of contention:
-UConn (3-3), ECU (2-4), UCF (0-6)

West
Houston and Navy are the only undefeated teams in conference play at 6-0.  Since they play in the final week, we know that the winner is guaranteed at least a 7th win, and the division title.

Out of contention:
-Memphis (4-2), Tulsa (2-4), Tulane (1-5), SMU (0-6)

Key game:
-Navy at Houston, November 27