Week 10 addendum: American Conference race

Normally, I stick to just the Power 5 conferences, but it's looking like the American will be sending their champion to the New Year's Six, and could even potentially crack the top 4.  Also, several of the coaches could be moving on to new jobs based on their performance this year.

The American schedule seems to be backloaded, where a lot of the top teams have yet to play each other.

American
East
Controls destiny:
-Temple (5-0) can clinch the division with a win.  Their next game is against South Florida.  Even if they lose that game, they are still in control of their destiny.

Needs help:
-South Florida (3-2) can clinch the division if they win out and Temple loses at least one other conference game.

Still in contention:
-Cincinnati (2-3) can only have a shot at the championship if they share a tie at 5-3.  Since Temple is already 5-0, Temple would be involved in any tie.  Temple already has the head-to-head against Cincy and UConn, and would win any two-team tiebreakers.

If there is a three way tie of Temple/Cincy/UConn, each team would be 1-1.  Cincy would have a divisional record of 4-1 while Temple and UConn would each have 3-2.  So, Cincy can clinch the division that way.

The three way tie of Temple/Cincy/USF would be caused by Temple losing out, Cincy winning out, and USF going 1-2 in their final three games (they play Temple and Cincy, so it already fits in).  The teams would be 1-1 against each other.  Cincy and USF would have 4-1 divisional records, and Cincy would have the head-to-head.

In the event of a 4 way tie at 5-3, USF and Cincy would both be 2-1 against the other teams, and Cincy would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Short version, there are three components to Cincy's championship hopes:
-win out
-Temple lose out
-USF beats UCF OR UConn beats Houston.

Out of contention:
-UConn (3-3), ECU (2-4), UCF (0-6)

How is UConn out of contention, but not Cincy?  As you can see above, UConn is accounted for in all of the ties that involve Cincy, but they do not come out ahead.  If UConn is involved in a three way tie with Temple and USF, USF would be 2-0 against the other two teams, and thus win the division.

West
Controls destiny:
-Houston (5-0) has yet to play the other teams in contention.
-Navy (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Memphis.

Needs help:
-Memphis (4-1) needs two Navy losses.

Out of contention:
-Tulsa (2-3), Tulane (1-5), SMU (0-5)

Since Houston and Navy have yet to play, we know that at least one team in the division will get to 6 wins, which is impossible for the bottom three teams to achieve.

Starting with Week 11, we'll be following the American in the weekly wrap up posts.