Week 10 Wrap up

Wow.  This Saturday did not go as expected.  A few bumps along the way, but at least a few teams clinched their division, while many others were eliminated.  Would you believe that the ACC Coastal is not the most wide open division right now?

ACC Wheel of Destiny

Atlantic Champion:  Clemson (6-0)
Even if FSU or Louisville win out to get to 6 total wins and Clemson loses out, the Tigers have head-to-head tiebreakers against both.

Out of contention:
-Florida State (5-2), Louisville (4-2), Syracuse (1-4), NC State (2-3), Wake Forest (1-5), and Boston College (0-7)

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UNC (5-0) has tiebreakers over Pitt and Duke.

Needs help:
-Miami (3-2) needs an additional UNC loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Duke.
-Pitt (4-1) needs two UNC losses.  They have tiebreakers over Virginia Tech and UVA.

-Duke (3-2) needs UNC to lose out and a Miami loss.

Out of contention:
-Virginia Tech (2-3), UVA (2-3), Georgia Tech (1-5)

For VT or UVA to have any chance at winning the division, they would have to be involved in a tie at 5-3.  Since UNC and Pitt need to lose out for either team to have a chance, that would give Miami two additional wins.  Miami would win any tiebreaker against any team in the division, because their only losses come from the other division.

Bowl eligible:  FSU, Clemson, Duke, Pitt, UNC, NC State, Miami
One win away:  Louisville
Edge of no bowl:  Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, UVA
No bowl:  Boston College

SEC

East Champion:  Florida (6-1)
No one else can achieve six conference wins.

Out of contention:
-Georgia (4-3), Vanderbilt (1-4), Tennessee (2-3), Kentucky (2-5), Missouri (1-4), South Carolina (1-5)

West
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Alabama (5-1) has tiebreakers over Arkansas and Texas A&M.  They lost to Ole Miss.

Needs help:
-LSU (4-1) needs an Alabama loss  They have a tiebreaker over Mississippi State.

-Ole Miss (4-2) needs an Alabama loss.  They have tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Alabama, but lost to Arkansas.

-Mississippi State (3-2) needs two LSU losses.  They also lost to Texas A&M.
-Arkansas (3-2) needs two Alabama losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Ole Miss, but lost to Texas A&M.
-Texas A&M (3-3) needs an Alabama loss.  They have tiebreakers over Arkansas and Mississippi State.

Out of contention:  Auburn (2-4)

Bowl eligible:  Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia
One win away:  Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas
Edge of no bowl:  Vanderbilt, South Carolina

B1G

East
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Rutgers, Indiana, and Maryland.
-Michigan State (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Michigan.

Needs help:
-Michigan (4-1) needs a MSU loss.
-Penn State (4-2) needs two OSU losses.

Out of contention:
-Rutgers (1-5), Maryland (0-5), Indiana (0-5)

West
Controls destiny:
-Iowa (5-0) has tiebreakers over Wisconsin and Northwestern.  They will clinch the division with a win.

Needs help:
-Wisconsin (5-1) needs two Iowa losses.
-Northwestern (3-2) needs Iowa to lose out.  They will be eliminated with a loss or Iowa win.

Out of contention:
-Illinois (2-3), Nebraska (2-4), Minnesota (1-4), Purdue (1-4).

Illinois was eliminated by virtue of losing most tiebreakers.  If they win out to end at 5-3, they would have to be in a tie at least with Iowa and Wisconsin, two teams they lost to.  Even if a 4 way tie including Northwestern was possible, Illinois would only be 1-2 against that group, where Iowa is already 3-0.

Bowl eligible:  Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan
One win away:  Illinois
Edge of no bowl:  Nebraska, Rutgers
No bowl:  Maryland, Purdue

Pac-12

North
Controls destiny:
-Stanford (7-0) has a tiebreakers over Washington State.  They will clinch the division with a win.

Needs help:
-Oregon (4-2) needs Stanford to lose out.

Oregon plays Stanford next week.

Out of contention:
-Washington State (4-2), Washington (2-4), Cal (2-4), Oregon State (0-6)

There is still the possibility of a three way tie at 7-2, which would have each team at 1-1 against each other.  For that to happen, Oregon and Washington State need to win out while Stanford loses out.  In that case, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would have Oregon at 4-1 vs. the 3-2 records that Stanford and Washington State could provide.

South
Controls destiny:
-Utah (5-1) has a tiebreaker over Arizona State.  They lost to USC.
-UCLA (4-2) lost to Arizona State.

Needs help:
-USC (4-2) needs a Utah loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona State.

Lost control:
-Arizona State (2-4) lost to USC and Utah.  They have a tiebreaker over UCLA.

Out of contention:
-Colorado (1-5), Arizona (2-5), Arizona State (2-4)

The only chance Arizona State had was to get involved in a multi-team tie at 5-4.  That means Utah would have to lose out.  That would give UCLA their fifth win, after which they would have to lose out, which would give USC their fifth win.  In that scenario, USC would be 3-0 among the tied teams, while everyone else would be 1-2.  Based on the outcomes that need to happen for that scenario, it is the only tie that Arizona State can be involved in.

Bowl eligible:  Utah, Stanford, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC
One win away:  Cal, Arizona
Edge of no bowl:  Colorado
No bowl:  Oregon State

Big 12
Controls destiny:
-Oklahoma State (6-0) has tiebreakers over TCU and Texas.
-Baylor (5-0) has no tiebreakers over teams still in contention.
-Oklahoma (5-1) lost to Texas.

Needs help:
-TCU (5-1) needs two Oklahoma State losses.  They have tiebreakers over Texas and Iowa State.

Lost control:
-Texas (3-3) has a tiebreaker over Oklahoma, but lost to Oklahoma State and TCU.

Out of contention:

-Iowa State (2-4), Texas Tech (2-5), Kansas State (0-5), West Virginia (1-4), and Kansas (0-6)

Bowl eligible:  TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma
One win away:  Texas Tech
Edge of no bowl:  Kansas State, Iowa State
Not bowl eligible:  Kansas