Week 9 wrap up

The races have taken so much shape that I'm going down to third and fourth level tiebreakers for some.  We have teams being eliminated, teams regaining control, and some teams just barely hanging on.  This wrap up has taken the most time to prepare of any wrap up this season.

As usual, I'm only referring to conference records in this post.  I'm eliminating some of the tiebreakers that no longer matter (in other words, tiebreakers over teams already out of contention).


ACC Wheel of Destiny

Atlantic
The worst record that the winner of FSU/Clemson can have is 6-2.  Both teams already have tiebreakers over Louisville, the only team with 2 losses.  Therefore, all other Atlantic teams have been eliminated.

Controls destiny:

-Clemson (5-0) can clinch the division with a win over FSU next week.  In this case, they would be 6-0 (worst possible record would be 6-2), while FSU would be 5-2 (best possible record 6-2).  Even if Clemson loses out while FSU wins out after next week, Clemson would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
-Florida State (5-1) can clinch if they win out.  If they beat Clemson, but lose to NC State, they could still win the division if Clemson loses 1 of their final 2 games.

Out of contention:
-Louisville (3-2), Syracuse (1-3), NC State (1-3), Wake Forest (1-5), and Boston College (0-6)

Coastal
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-UNC (4-0) has tiebreakers over Pitt and UVA.
-Duke (3-1) has a tiebreaker over Virginia Tech.  They lost to Miami

Needs help:
-Pitt (4-1) needs two UNC losses.  They have tiebreakers over Virginia Tech and UVA.

-Miami (2-2) needs a loss each from Duke and UNC.  They have a tiebreaker over Virginia Tech.

-UVA (2-2) needs three Pitt losses, three UNC losses, and two Duke losses.

Lost control:
-Virginia Tech (2-3) lost to Pitt, Miami, and Duke.  In order to win the division, VT needs to win out, Pitt to lose out, UVA to beat Duke and Miami, UNC to beat Duke but lose to NC State and Miami, and GT to beat Miami.  I only know this thanks to macraw83 at The Key Play, who figured out all 262,144 possible outcomes of the ACC Coastal going into week 9.  Seven of those outcomes had VT winning, but after this week, we're down to 3.

Out of contention:
-Georgia Tech (1-5) lost to UVA, Pitt, Duke, and UNC.

Bowl eligible:  FSU, Clemson, Duke, Pitt, UNC
One win away:  NC State
Edge of no bowl:  Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech

SEC

East
Controls destiny:
-Florida (5-1) has tiebreakers over Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri.  They can clinch the division with a win (if they haven't already).  They play Vanderbilt next week.

Lost control:
-Vanderbilt (1-3) and Georgia (3-3) might have a slight chance if Florida loses out.

Here's where things get a little complicated.  Assuming Florida loses out to keep the other teams alive, there are two possible three way ties at 5-3.  The first involves Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia.  In that case, Florida would win the division, because they would be 2-0 in that group.  The second involves Florida, Vanderbilt, and Georgia.  Each of those teams would be 1-1 against each other, and each would have a 4-2 divisional record.  At this point, we're getting down to the fourth level of tiebreaker, which is further than I'm willing to go at this point.

If one of the two teams loses at some point, causing a two way tie with Florida, Georgia is out because of head-to-head.  Vanderbilt would have a win over Florida in this scenario, so they could win the division if Georgia loses.

A four way tie is impossible, since Tennessee and Vanderbilt will play each other, forcing one of them to 4 losses.

Out of contention:
-Tennessee (2-3), Kentucky (2-4), Missouri (1-4), South Carolina (1-5)

West
Magic number:  4
LSU and Alabama play next week, pushing one of them to 5 wins.

Controls destiny:
-LSU (4-0) has tiebreakers over Auburn and Mississippi State.
-Ole Miss (4-1) has tiebreakers over Texas A&M, Alabama, and Auburn.

Needs help:
-Alabama (4-1) needs an Ole Miss loss.  They have tiebreakers over Arkansas and Texas A&M.
-Texas A&M (3-2) needs an Alabama loss.  They have tiebreakers over Arkansas and Mississippi State.
-Mississippi State (2-2) needs three LSU losses and a Texas A&M loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Auburn.
-Arkansas (2-2) needs a Texas A&M loss and two Alabama losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Auburn.

Out of contention:  Auburn (1-4)

Bowl eligible:  Florida, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
One win away:  Texas A&M, Georgia

B1G

East
Magic number:  4
(Since OSU and MSU have yet to play, one is guaranteed a fifth win.)

Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (4-0) has tiebreakers over Rutgers, Indiana, and Maryland.
-Michigan State (4-0) has a tiebreaker over Michigan.

Needs help:
-Michigan (3-1) needs two MSU losses.
-Penn State (4-1) needs two OSU losses.

Out of contention:
-Rutgers (1-4), Maryland (0-4), Indiana (0-4)

West
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Iowa (4-0) has tiebreakers over Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern.

Needs help:
-Wisconsin (4-1) needs two Iowa losses.  They have tiebreakers over Illinois, Nebraska, and Purdue.
-Northwestern (2-2) needs three Iowa losses.  They have tiebreakers over Minnesota and Nebraska.
-Illinois (1-3) needs three Iowa losses and two Wisconsin losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Nebraska.
-Minnesota (1-3) needs a Northwestern loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Purdue.
-Purdue (1-3) has a tiebreaker over Nebraska, but lost to Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Lost control:
-Nebraska (1-4) lost to Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue.  They have a tiebreaker over Minnesota.

Bowl eligible:  Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan
Edge of no bowl:  Purdue, Nebraska, Maryland

Pac-12

North
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Stanford (6-0) has tiebreakers over Washington State, Oregon State, and Washington.

Needs help:
-Washington State (3-2) needs 3 Stanford losses.  They have tiebreakers over Oregon and Oregon State, but lost to Cal.
-Oregon (3-2) needs a Washington State losses, plus an additional loss by Stanford.  They have a tiebreaker over Washington.
-Washington (2-3) needs a Cal loss, 2 Oregon losses, and additional losses from Stanford and Washington State.

Lost control:
-Cal (2-3) has a tiebreaker over Washington, but lost to Stanford and Washington State.

Just start winning:
-Oregon State (0-5).

South
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
-Utah (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Arizona State.  They lost to USC.
-UCLA (3-2) has a tiebreaker over Arizona.  They lost to Arizona State.

Needs help:
-USC (3-2) needs a Utah loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona State.
-Arizona State (2-3) needs a USC loss and three Utah losses.  They have tiebreakers over UCLA and Colorado.
-Arizona (2-4) needs 2 UCLA losses and 2 additional Utah losses.

Just start winning:
-Colorado (1-4) lost to Arizona State and Arizona.

Bowl eligible:  Utah, Stanford, UCLA
One win away:  Cal, Arizona, Washington State, Oregon, USC
Edge of no bowl:  Oregon State

Big 12
Magic number: 4
TCU and Oklahoma State face off next week, pushing one team to 6 wins.

Controls destiny:
-TCU (5-0) has tiebreakers over Texas and Iowa State.
-Oklahoma State (5-0) has a tiebreaker over Texas.
-Baylor (4-0) has no tiebreakers over teams still in contention.
-Oklahoma (4-1) lost to Texas.

Lost control:
-Texas (2-3) has a tiebreaker over Oklahoma, but lost to Oklahoma State and TCU.
-Iowa State (2-3) has a tiebreaker over Texas, but lost to TCU and Baylor.

Both teams will be eliminated with a loss.

Out of contention:

-Texas Tech (2-4), Kansas State (0-4), West Virginia (0-4), and Kansas (0-5)

Bowl eligible:  TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma
One win away:  Texas Tech
Not bowl eligible:  Kansas