This late in the season, I don't need an "over-reaction". The picture of the season is taking form, though a lot can still happen (as Week 11 proved).
The "Wait and See" Reaction:
- Virginia Tech and Clemson had a chance to make the ACC Championship Game matchup official, but now we'll have to wait. Clemson is in a "make-or-break" situation this coming Saturday at Wake Forest (Louisville makes it to Orlando with a Wake upset), while the Hokies and Tar Heels will determine the Coastal by playing their in-state rivals.
- Is USC really that much better than Washington? If certain things break right, we could get a rematch in Santa Clara.
- It looks like LSU was able to avoid its post-Alabama meltdown with a convincing win against Arkansas. If the Tigers win against Florida and Texas A&M too, is that enough for Ed O?
- Will we need any 5-7 teams to fill a bowl slot this year? Army and South Alabama could end up being 6-6 with two FCS wins, with Hawaii finishing 6-7. All of these would take precedent over the APR-based 5-7 teams.
Championship Look-Ahead:
- As discussed above, the ACC has a simple road map to determine the C.G. teams.
- Alabama has wrapped up the SEC West. Florida can wrap up the East with a win over LSU, while Tennessee needs to win out and have the Tigers beat the Gators.
- The PAC-12 North is pretty simple:
- Washington State can clinch with a Win (vs Colorado) + a Washington loss (vs AZ State).
- Any other combination of results will give us a winner-take-all Apple Cup on Black Friday.
- The PAC-12 South is a pretty simple, with an extra wrinkle:
- Colorado and Utah are in control. If one of these two goes 2-0, they're in.
- If the Buffaloes and Utes both fail to go 2-0, then USC wins (as long as USC beats UCLA).
- The Big Ten East is as follows:
- Michigan is in by winning out. That part is simple.
- Penn State wins by winning out and Michigan losing one (such as at Ohio State).
- Ohio State wins by winning out and Penn State falling victim to Rutgers or Michigan State (though OSU may "win" by nabbing a CFP spot at 11-1 anyway).
- The Big Ten West is a bit of a cluster:
- Wisconsin wins by winning out
- Nebraska wins by winning out + Wisconsin losing one
- Minnesota, Iowa, and Northwestern are theoretically alive, though would need massive chaos above and among each other.
- The Big 12 is basically a 3-team race (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia):
- Oklahoma can go 1-1, as long as OSU and WVU each lose a game as well.
- Oklahoma State can win by winning out (they have a tiebreaker over WVU)
- West Virginia win by winning out + Oklahoma State losing one.
CFP and New Year's Six
- Alabama is as near a lock as you can get. No more needs to be said about the Tide.
- Clemson is still in good CFP shape. Perhaps the loss to Pitt could be just what the Tigers needed to ease some of the pressure (see Ohio State last year, after losing to Michigan State).
- The Big Ten is still in good CFP shape. The biggest question might be which team(s).
- Washington isn't out of it. But the Huskies absolutely MUST win out (a rematch with USC would be nice).
- Louisville is very much alive. But the Cardinals will HAVE to give a compelling, "unequivocal" argument over at least TWO conference champs.
- Boise State has been nipping at the heels of Western Michigan. The Broncos from K-zoo are playing well and winning fairly comfortably. If they win, I'd like think they can stay (and finish) ahead in the Cotton Bowl race. The Broncos from Boise, however, are now just one more Wyoming loss away from regaining control of their conference championship destiny.
- How hard will the CFP committee punish VT and UNC for their upset losses? Will they keep UNC above Florida State due to head-to-head, and the Hokies ahead of UNC? This would impact the Orange Bowl if Clemson and Louisville both made the CFP.
- Will FOUR Big Ten teams make it to the New Year's Six?!? CFP, Rose, Orange, and Cotton? A definite improvement from the BCS setup, assuming all stay highly ranked.
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