Week 9 Reactions

I intentionally waited until the CFP Rankings release this week to look back on the week gone by. I'll resume doing this on Sunday, but I did want to share some of my initial thoughts on the initial rankings.



The Over-Reaction:

• Florida State is done for! They lost at home to Clemson, blowing a shot at their 5th straight 10-win regular season. Expect more losses to come in November!
• Southern Cal is on a 4-game winning streak. Look out, PAC-12, a new champ is in town!
• Louisville was on the ropes against Duke and UVA! The Cardinals are frauds!
• Group of 5 teams with hot-shot coaches can't finish a season due to the hype. Western Michigan is assured a loss before it's all done!
• Virginia Tech got through the UNC-Miami-Pitt trio without a loss, but tripped up in the Carrier Dome against Syracuse along the way. The Hokies lost one game they shouldn't have - they HAVE to lose another and give the Coastal Division to UNC.
• Notre Dame is back on the winning track. Look for the Irish to win out!
• Texas A&M ahead of Washington for a Top 4 CFP spot? Hello, again, SEC Bias!

The "Wait and See" Reaction:

• Previous heavy-hitters Houston and Boise State are currently looking up in the standings of their respective divisions. Will those division leaders (Navy/Tulsa, Wyoming) hold serve, keeping two of the best Group of Five teams from even being eligible for the automatic New Year's Six spot should WMU stumble?
• Oklahoma's the front-runner in the Big 12, but their quest for conference perfection is still in question. Since the 9-conference game round-robin format started in 2011, no team has finished undefeated in league play. Can the Sooners do it, particularly in a year where they lost 2 non-conference games?
• In each of the past 2 years, a team from outside of the Top 10 ended up as a CFP team. The ESPN crew offered Oklahoma, LSU, and Florida as possibilities for this season. Will this pattern even hold, given the positioning of the unbeaten teams, Ohio State, Texas A&M and even Wisconsin and Auburn?
• Is the margin for error really zero for Washington? Are we really one Husky stumble of virtually guaranteeing a conference to produce 2 CFP teams?
• The Big 12 announced last week that their Championship Game in 2017 and beyond will be between the top 2 teams, as opposed to having divisions. I wonder if this will work wonders, or if it will backfire right off the bat?

Tony's Takeaways:

• The three key 1-loss teams are Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Louisville. While the CFP Selection Committee sees them in that particular order, the path for each is fairly straightforward (assuming they win out, of course):
• Texas A&M: Washington loses 1 game OR  Alabama loses to LSU and Auburn
• Ohio State: win out, should be that simple
• Louisville:  Washington loses 1 game AND A&M and OSU pick up a 2nd loss
• Nebraska and Florida are also in good shape, although winning out will be much easier said than done.
• Glad to see the CFP committee take head-to-head into account when ranking the ACC teams. VT beat UNC, who in turn beat Florida State. No real Playoff or New Year's Six implications, but it is nice to see the committee take the whole Top 25 seriously.
• We could be shaping up for a heck of a final weekend of divisional races this season. Imagine if we have the following:
• 1-loss Texas A&M on Thanksgiving Night vs LSU, with the Iron Bowl on Saturday between Bama and 1-loss (in the SEC) Auburn. A&M winning would create 3-way tie implications on Saturday, while a win by LSU would make the Iron Bowl a winner-take-all affair. If LSU beats Bama first, oh the possibilities!!
• UNC hosting NC State on Black Friday in order to stay alive in the ACC Coastal. A Tar Heel win would lead to a "make or break" Saturday for Virginia Tech playing UVA in Blacksburg. A Wolfpack win would give the Hokies a doorbuster deal, though I'm sure VT would still be plenty motivated to beat the Hoos.
• The Apple Cup (Washington at Washington State) serving as the PAC-12 North Championship on Black Friday, with the Rumble in the Rockies (Utah at Colorado) doing the same for the PAC-12 South on Saturday.
• Ohio State-Michigan being THE GAME for the Big Ten East, and likely for a CFP front-runner spot.
• Western Michigan against Toledo on Black Friday, perhaps for the MAC West. Likely WMU's toughest remaining test, with a loss possibly knocking the Broncos out of conference contention.