Sunday, November 20, 2016

Week 12 wrap up

Turkey day is coming...it's hate week, ya'll!

And guess what, we actually have scenarios!  I don't know if the games have fallen just right this year, or I just haven't had the fortitude to plot out too many scenarios (like the epic 17 scenarios for the ACC a couple years ago).


Teams listed as "on the edge" in regards to a bowl game are 5-6, and their bowl hopes live and die on their final game.  We are not counting 5-7 as a bowl possibility.

ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic Division Champion:  Clemson (7-1)

Clemson won the division by beating every other team in the division.

Out of contention:
Louisville (7-1), Boston College (1-6), FSU (5-3), NC State (2-5), Syracuse (2-5), Wake Forest (3-4)

Coastal
This divisional race will be settled after Thanksgiving.  UNC plays on Black Friday (and can settle the division with a loss), and VT plays on Saturday.

Controls destiny:
Virginia Tech (5-2) has the tiebreaker over UNC.  They can clinch with a win (against UVA) OR a UNC loss (to NC State)

Needs help:
UNC (5-2) can clinch with a win (against NC State) AND a VT loss (to UVA).

Out of contention:
Pitt (4-3), Miami (4-3), UVA (1-6), Georgia Tech (4-4), Duke (1-6)

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Louisville, UNC, VT, Wake Forest, Florida State, Pitt, GT, Miami
On the edge:  Boston College, NC State
No bowl:  UVA, Syracuse, Duke

Atlantic vs. Coastal:  Atlantic 7-4.
Atlantic wins: Wake Forest over Duke, Clemson over GT, FSU over Miami, Louisville over Duke, Syracuse over VT, Louisville over UVA, Wake Forest over UVA.
Coastal wins: Georgia Tech over BC, Virginia Tech over BC, UNC over FSU, Pitt over Clemson.


SEC Championship:  Florida (6-2, East) vs. Alabama (7-0, West)

Both teams won their divisions outright by winning more conference games than anyone else.

Bowl eligible:  Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU
On the edge:  Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
No bowl:  Missouri, Mississippi State


B1G
East
The B1G East comes down to Michigan State at Penn State and Michigan at Ohio State on Saturday.  All three contenders are 7-1 in conference.  Michigan beat Penn State, and Penn State beat Ohio State.

Scenario #1:  Michigan and Penn State win.
Records:  Michigan (8-1), Penn State (8-1), Ohio State (7-2)
Outcome:  Michigan wins on head-to-head over Penn State.

Scenario #2:  Michigan wins, Penn State loses.
Records:  Michigan (8-1), Penn State (7-2), Ohio State (7-2)
Outcome:  Michigan wins with best record.

Scenario #3:  Ohio State and Penn State win.
Records:  Michigan (7-2), Penn State (8-1), Ohio State (8-1)
Outcome:  Penn State wins on head-to-head over Ohio State.

Scenario #4:  Ohio State wins, Penn State loses.
Records:  Michigan (7-2), Penn State (7-2), Ohio State (8-1)
Outcome:  Ohio State wins on best record.

Michigan can clinch the division with a win.
Penn State can clinch the division with a win AND a Michigan loss.
Ohio State can clinch the division with a win AND a Penn State loss.

Out of contention:
Indiana (3-5), Maryland (2-6), Michigan State (1-7), Rutgers (0-8)

West
The top four teams in the standings all play each other next week.  Nebraska (6-2) travels to Iowa (5-3) on Friday, while Wisconsin (6-2) hosts Minnesota (5-3) on Saturday.

Wisconsin has tiebreakers over Iowa and Nebraska.
Nebraska has a tiebreaker over Minnesota.
Iowa has a tiebreaker over Minnesota.

Therefore, there are four possible scenarios that can play out.

Scenario #1:  Nebraska and Wisconsin win
Records:  Nebraska (7-2), Wisconsin (7-2), Iowa (5-4), Minnesota (5-4)
Outcome:  Wisconsin would win on head-to-head over Nebraska.

Scenario #2:  Nebraska and Minnesota win.
Records:  Nebraska (7-2), Wisconsin (6-3), Iowa (5-4), Minnesota (6-3)
Outcome:  Nebraska wins on best record.

Scenario #3:  Iowa and Wisconsin win.
Records:  Nebraska (6-3), Wisconsin (7-2), Iowa (6-3), Minnesota (5-4)
Outcome:  Wisconsin wins on best record.

Scenario #4:  Iowa and Minnesota win.
Records:  Nebraska (6-3), Wisconsin (6-3), Iowa (6-3), Minnesota (6-3)
Records within group:  Nebraska (1-2), Wisconsin (2-1), Iowa (2-1), Minnesota (1-2)
Outcome:  Wisconsin would win on head-to-head over Iowa.

So, Iowa and Minnesota are out.

Wisconsin can clinch the division with a win OR a Nebraska loss.
Nebraska can clinch the division with a win AND a Wisconsin loss.

The division can only be decided on Friday if Nebraska loses.

Out of contention:
Iowa (5-3), Minnesota (5-3), Northwestern (4-4), Purdue (1-7), Illinois (2-6)

Bowl eligible:  Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
On the edge:  Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern
No bowl:  Rutgers, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois


Pac-12
North
This division will be determined on Friday during the Apple Cup:  Washington (7-1) at Washington State (7-1).  The winner will have the best record in the division.

Out of contention:
Stanford (6-3), Cal (2-6), Oregon State (1-6), Oregon (2-6)

South
Controls destiny:
Colorado (7-1) clinches the division with a win.

Needs help:
USC (7-2) is done with conference play.  They clinch the division with a Colorado loss by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Out of contention:
Utah (5-3), UCLA (2-5), Arizona (0-7), Arizona State (2-5)

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, Stanford, USC, Utah, Colorado
On the edge:  Arizona State
No bowl:  Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, California


Big 12
Since they don't have a conference title game, the Big 12 schedules some games for the first weekend of December.  As it happens, one of the games is Oklahoma State (7-1) at Oklahoma (8-0), which will be a de facto championship game, as the winner will win the conference.

Out of contention:
West Virginia (5-2), Texas Tech (2-6), Kansas (1-7), Iowa State (2-6), Texas (3-5), Kansas State (4-3), TCU (3-4), Baylor (3-4)

Bowl eligible:  Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
One win away (5-5):  TCU
On the edge (5-6):  Texas
No bowl:  Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

Independents
Bowl eligible:  BYU, Army
No bowl:  Massachusetts, Notre Dame  (Hokie Nation says "You're welcome, America.")

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