Friday, November 25, 2016

Week 13 Black Friday update

With almost a full slate of games on Friday (plus one on Thursday), we've made some significant progress already this week.


Teams listed as "on the edge" in regards to a bowl game are 5-6, and their bowl hopes live and die on their final game.  We are not counting 5-7 as a bowl possibility.

ACC Championship:  Clemson (7-1, Atlantic) vs. Virginia Tech (5-2, Coastal)

Both teams have the best record in their respective divisions.

Atlantic
Out of contention:
Louisville (7-1), Boston College (1-6), FSU (5-3), NC State (3-5), Syracuse (2-5), Wake Forest (3-4)

Coastal
Out of contention:
UNC (5-3), Pitt (4-3), Miami (4-3), UVA (1-6), Georgia Tech (4-4), Duke (1-6)

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Louisville, UNC, VT, Wake Forest, Florida State, Pitt, GT, Miami, NC State
On the edge:  Boston College
No bowl:  UVA, Syracuse, Duke

Atlantic vs. Coastal:  Atlantic 8-5.
Atlantic wins: Wake Forest over Duke and UVA, Louisville over Duke and UVA, Clemson over GT, FSU over Miami, Syracuse over VT, NC State over UNC.
Coastal wins: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech over BC, UNC over FSU, Pitt over Clemson, Miami over NC State.

Atlantic clinches winning record against the Coastal.  Remaining game:  Syracuse at Pitt.


SEC Championship:  Florida (6-2, East) vs. Alabama (7-0, West)

Both teams won their divisions outright by having the best record.

Bowl eligible:  Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU
On the edge:  Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
No bowl:  Missouri, Mississippi State


B1G
East
Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are 7-1 in conference.  Michigan beat Penn State, and Penn State beat Ohio State.

Scenario #1:  Michigan and Penn State win.
Records:  Michigan (8-1), Penn State (8-1), Ohio State (7-2)
Outcome:  Michigan wins on head-to-head over Penn State.

Scenario #2:  Michigan wins, Penn State loses.
Records:  Michigan (8-1), Penn State (7-2), Ohio State (7-2)
Outcome:  Michigan wins with best record.

Scenario #3:  Ohio State and Penn State win.
Records:  Michigan (7-2), Penn State (8-1), Ohio State (8-1)
Outcome:  Penn State wins on head-to-head over Ohio State.

Scenario #4:  Ohio State wins, Penn State loses.
Records:  Michigan (7-2), Penn State (7-2), Ohio State (8-1)
Outcome:  Ohio State wins on best record.

Michigan can clinch the division with a win.
Penn State can clinch the division with a win AND a Michigan loss.
Ohio State can clinch the division with a win AND a Penn State loss.

Out of contention:
Indiana (3-5), Maryland (2-6), Michigan State (1-7), Rutgers (0-8)

West Champions:  Wisconsin (6-2)

Wisconsin clinches the division with the best conference record at the moment.

Out of contention:
Nebraska (6-3), Iowa (6-3), Minnesota (5-3), Northwestern (4-4), Purdue (1-7), Illinois (2-6)

Bowl eligible:  Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
On the edge:  Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern
No bowl:  Rutgers, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois


Pac-12
North Champions:  Washington (8-1)
The Huskies have the best conference record in the division.

Out of contention:
Washington State (7-2), Stanford (6-3), Cal (2-6), Oregon State (1-6), Oregon (2-6)

South
Controls destiny:
Colorado (7-1) clinches the division with a win.

Needs help:
USC (7-2) is done with conference play.  They clinch the division with a Colorado loss by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Out of contention:
Utah (5-3), UCLA (2-5), Arizona (1-7), Arizona State (2-6)

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, Stanford, USC, Utah, Colorado
No bowl:  Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, California, Arizona State


Big 12
Waiting for Bedlam on December 3:  Oklahoma State (7-1) at Oklahoma (8-0).  Winner will be conference champion.  Winner is guaranteed a minimum of 8 conference wins, more than any other team is able to obtain.  Oklahoma would be champs by virtue of best record in conference, while Oklahoma State would have the head-to-head against them.

It's a good thing it's not next year, when the new Big 12 Championship Game returns.  Otherwise, these teams would be playing each other two weeks in a row to determine the champion.  And that's what the Big 12 gets for not making divisions.

Bowl eligible:  Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU
No bowl:  Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas

Independents
Bowl eligible:  BYU, Army
No bowl:  Massachusetts, Notre Dame

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