Sunday, November 20, 2016

Reactions from Week 12 / Year-End Look-Ahead

A few upsets shaped this penultimate weekend of November. But by and large, the games set up some fun ahead!



Championships

  • One of our conference championships is set. That, of course, being the SEC. Alabama and Florida for the 9th time. Congrats to the Gators for that goal line stand vs LSU, on the road for what was originally a home game, to clinch the SEC East. Bama clinched the West last week with Auburn's loss to Georgia.
  • Other conferences have at least one CCG participant set:
    • Clemson is the ACC Atlantic champ.
    • Navy is the American West champ. 
    • Louisiana Tech is the C-USA West champ. 
    • San Diego State has been the Mountain West-West champ for a while now.
  • And the rest have a little more work to do (see Chip's Week 12 Wrap-Up for detailed clinching scenarios for each Power Conference):
    • The ACC Coastal is down to VT and UNC.
    • The PAC-12 South is down to Colorado and USC.
    • The PAC-12 North will settle itself in a winner-take-all Apple Cup in Pullman.
    • The Big Ten West is down to Wisconsin and Nebraska.
    • The Big Ten East is down to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.
    • The Big 12 de facto Championship Game will be Bedlam, in Norman. But we'll have to wait until December 3.
  • In addition, the Group of Five races are as follows:
    • In the American East, it all comes town to Temple and South Florida. 
      • Temple will clinch with a win over 3-8 East Carolina, OR a USF loss. 
      • USF clinches by beating 6-5 UCF, AND a Temple loss.
    • In the Mountain West-Mountain, Wyoming is in control. 
      • A win vs 7-4 New Mexico, and Wyoming will clinch. 
      • Boise State can clinch with a win vs 8-3 Air Force and a Wyoming loss.
    • In the MAC West, it's a winner-take-all between Western Michigan and Toledo. The game is Friday evening at WMU.
    • In the MAC East, it's down to Ohio and Miami (OH).
      • Ohio clinches with a win over 5-6 Akron, OR a Miami loss.
      • Miami clinches with a win over 4-7 Ball State, AND an Ohio loss.
    • Conference USA East is down to Western Kentucky and ODU.
      • Western KY clinches with a win over 3-8 Marshall, OR an ODU loss.
      • ODU clinches with a win over 4-7 FIU, AND a WKU loss.
    • Arkansas State is the only unbeaten team (in conference play...don't get me started on Ark St's ineptitude out of conference) left in the Sun Belt. Win, or even go 1-1, in the last two games and it's Red Wolves as champs once again.
New Year's Six

Barring a wild collapse (and maybe not even then), Alabama should be set as one of the four CFP teams. The other three participants, assuming they win out, should come from the following pool of teams:
  • 12-1 ACC Champ Clemson
  • 12-1 PAC-12 Champ Washington
  • 12-1 Big Ten Champ Michigan
  • 11-1 Big Ten non-champ Ohio State
  • 10-2 Big 12 Champ (Oklahoma or Oklahoma State)
  • 11-2 Big Ten Champ (Wisconsin or Penn State)
  • 10-2 SEC Champ Florida
  • 11-2 PAC-12 Champ Colorado
Each have pros/cons, and in the cases of Florida and Colorado, some long odds. I won't get into that here. But that should be enough teams to cover at least a moderate amount of last-minute chaos.

As for the other New Year's Six Bowls:
  • Sugar Bowl
    • With Alabama in the CFP, who will be the next-best SEC team? Florida and Tennessee seem to be in the best shape, with Auburn and the LSU-Texas A&M winner also in the mix. 
    • The Bedlam winner will be here as Big 12 champs. If, somehow, that team makes the CFP, then the Bedlam LOSER will be here as the Big 12's 2nd place team.
  • Rose Bowl:
    • If Washington makes the CFP, then it could be USC in the Rose Bowl. Interestingly, if Colorado loses to Utah, then the Trojans could be in a "Rose Bowl, win or lose" scenario in the PAC-12 CG. Colorado and Washington State can also make it here by winning the PAC-12.
    • Whether it's Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, or Penn State, the Rose Bowl should get a quality team out of this group. Maybe a 10-2 Penn State, if Michigan beats Ohio State?
  • Orange Bowl:
    • This spot should be Louisville's to lose in the ACC. A loss to Kentucky might not even be enough to take it away. One thing that could take it away, however, is a shocker by VT or UNC over Clemson in Orlando.
    • With that quartet of highly-ranked Big Ten teams, and no nearby SEC team, this should be another quality team out of the Michigan/Ohio State/Wisconsin/Penn State group.
  • Cotton Bowl:
    • The At-Large team could very well be that 4th Big Ten team (I'm sure they're glad this isn't the BCS and its conference limits). CFP, Rose, Orange, Cotton. Not too shabby! 
      • Other foreseeable (or even long-shot) options are: 
        • USC or Colorado
        • Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
        • Florida State (long shot, but the Seminoles are in the teens now)
        • an at-large Group of Five team (perhaps a non-champ Houston or Boise)
    • The Group of Five team could very well be undefeated Western Michigan. But then again, it might not.
      • Boise is currently ranked higher, but will not be able to win the MWC if Wyoming beats New Mexico (or if Boise loses to Air Force).
      • If WMU does lose (and Boise's not a factor), that could open the door for Navy or the MWC Champ.
      • Perhaps Toledo has a shot by beating WMU and the MAC-CG?
With Rivalry Week in our midst, I cannot wait to see just how things unfold during this extended weekend! May everyone have a happy Thanksgiving - and enjoy your football!

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