2023 Chaos Theory

There is a chance that 2023 could end up being the perfect year for a 4 team playoff.  There are currently four undefeated teams - Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State.  In addition, there are four teams with a single loss - Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama.  

It stands to reason that if any of the undefeated teams wins their conference championship game, they are in the CFP.  Past history of the CFP tells us that any of the current 1-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss.  The only way for a 2-loss team to make the CFP is if there are no more than 3 teams at 1 or 0 losses, which is mathematically impossible at this time.

Here are the best possible scenarios I see for any of these top 8 teams to make the final four.

Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State - win.  Seeing as how these four teams are already in the top four spots, it seems highly unlikely for any of them to drop in the rankings with a win.

Oregon - win, but they probably want to see a loss by Georgia, Michigan, and/or FSU as well.  The issue for Oregon is that a victory would also put Washington at 12-1, possibly with very little separating the two teams as they would be splitting the season's meetings.

Texas - win plus a loss by either Georgia, Michigan, or FSU.  For extra measure, they're probably going to be rooting for Washington to beat Oregon -- the winner of the Pac-12 is most likely in the final four, so dropping Oregon down to 11-2 will clear out the potential logjam at 12-1.

Alabama - win plus a Texas loss.

Ohio State - This is an extremely long shot.  First, they will need Oregon, Texas, and Alabama to all lose to clear the field of 1-loss teams. This would cement Georgia and Washington in the top 4.  OSU will naturally be rooting for Michigan to lose the Big Ten title game, but it won't really matter, because the head-to-head matchup will keep Michigan ranked ahead of OSU.  Finally, they will need to see FSU get completely blown out by Louisville in a beatdown so massive that FSU's 12th win can't keep them elevated over OSU's 11-1 record.

Total chaos theory:
-Wins by Alabama, Texas, Oregon, plus losses by Michigan and Florida State.  This will leave 7 teams with a 12-1 record.  Three of them will be conference champs (Alabama, Texas, Oregon), while four will not (Georgia, Michigan, Washington, FSU).  Further complicating matters will be Oregon and Washington being 1-1 against each other.

Scenario most likely to completely shut out the SEC:
-Wins by Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas, and Alabama.  This should keep three undefeated teams in the top spots (Michigan, Washington, FSU), while knocking Oregon down to the 2-loss category.  That leaves 3 teams at 12-1 for the last spot - Georgia, Alabama, and Texas.  The transitive property says that Texas should get that fourth spot based on head-to-head results.