Technically, there are three teams still in play for the second spot in the ACC Championship Game.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Clinched #1 seed:
-Florida State (8-0)
W: BC, Clemson, VT, Syracuse, Duke, WF, Pitt, Miami
FSU has the best record in the conference and no one can match that.
I thought that Louisville had clinched the #2 seed by virtue of several steps of tiebreakers. Until I saw this tweet:
FPI now gives Louisville a 96.7% chance to make the ACCCG now.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 12, 2023
UNC with a 3.1% chance.
VT at 0.4%
FPI also gives Cuse an 82.6% chance to make a bowl; VT at 80.3%, GT at 58.1% and Wake at 1.8%.
Let's try to figure this out.
-Louisville (6-1)
W: Georgia Tech, BC, NC State, Duke, VT, uva
L: Pitt
Louisville can definitely clinch the #2 spot by beating Miami. They would be 7-1 while the next closest teams would have 2 or more losses.
But if they lose that game and drop to 6-2, they're going to have to hope for certain outcomes in the conference to clinch that #2 spot.
Let's look at the teams in the 2-loss club.
-UNC (4-2)
W: Pitt, Syracuse, Miami, Duke
L: uva, GT
remaining games: Clemson, NC State
-Virginia Tech (4-2)
W: Pitt, WF, Syracuse, BC
L: FSU, Louisville
remaining games: NC State, uva
-NC State (4-2)
W: uva, Clemson, Miami, WF
L: Louisville, Duke
remaining games: VT, UNC
For any of them to have a chance at that #2 spot, it would have to involve a tie with Louisville.
Since NC State has to play both VT and UNC, there's no way that they can be in a tie with those two teams. The only possible scenario for NC State would be a two way tie with Louisville, but Louisville has the head-to-head, so NC State is out of contention.
VT would clearly lose out in a two way with with Louisville thanks to the head-to-head. But their 0.4% chance apparently comes down to winning out + UNC winning out + Miami beating Louisville. That scenario would force a three way tie of Louisville/VT/UNC. Since UNC did not play either of the other two teams, we have to skip to the tiebreaker of win percentage among common opponents. There are only three common opponents for this group: Pitt, NC State, and uva.
If VT wins out, they would be 3-0 against that group. Louisville and UNC are only 2-1 (Louisville lost to Pitt, UNC lost to uva).
Now, the most complicated scenario is a two way tie of Louisville and UNC at 6-2, since they did not play each other.
With no head-to-head, the first tiebreaker is the win percentage among all common opponents. Louisville and UNC have six common opponents (GT, NC State, Duke, uva, Pitt, and Miami), and they would both have 4-2 records over that group.
Now we have to go to the next tiebreaker, where we compare the wins and losses of the two tied teams against each common opponent in order of conference standings. As soon as we find a common opponent where one team beat them, that team gets the tiebreaker.
For this step, there are only four common opponents that we care about: Georgia Tech, uva, Pitt, and Miami.
Pitt and uva are both 1-5, and unable to climb above GT (4-3) or Miami (2-4) in the standings. However, we won't see Miami jump GT in the standings. Even if both end up at 4-4, GT has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami.
All of that to say that this tiebreaker step is ultimately just a comparison between the outcome of Louisville's and UNC's games against Georgia Tech -- Louisville won while UNC lost, so Louisville wins the tiebreaker.
But...this still doesn't show how UNC still has a chance. And I can't figure it out myself, other than a theory that perhaps there is a scenario where Miami is able to end up ahead of Georgia Tech in the standings due to weird tiebreakers among teams that finish 4-4.
If UNC ends at 6-2, there are 6 teams that could potentially end up at 4-4: GT, BC, Duke, Clemson, Miami, and the loser of VT/NC State.
Out of contention:
-Georgia Tech (4-3)
W: Wake Forest, Miami, UNC, uva
L: Louisville, BC, Clemson
-Duke (3-3)
W: Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest
L: FSU, Louisville, UNC
-Boston College (3-3)
W: uva, GT, Syracuse
L: FSU, Louisville, VT
-Clemson (3-4)
W: Syracuse, WF, GT
L: Duke, FSU, Miami, NC State
-Miami (2-4)
W: Clemson, uva
L: GT, UNC, NC State, FSU
-uva (1-5)
W: UNC
L: NC State, BC, Miami, GT, Louisville
-Pitt (1-5)
W: Louisville
L: UNC, VT, WF, FSU, Syracuse
-Syracuse (1-5)
W: Pitt
L: Clemson, UNC, FSU, VT, BC
-Wake Forest (1-6)
W: Pitt
L: GT, Clemson, VT, FSU, Duke, NC State
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