With two weeks left in the season, we have two championship games completely set, and a winner-take-all divisional game in place.
EDIT: Maybe not....ACC is being #goacc again....
ACC Championship: Florida State Seminoles (8-0) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-1)
Florida State clinched the #1 seed by virtue of the best record in the conference.If Louisville wins their final conference game or UNC loses a game, then the Cardinals clinch the second spot by virtue of the second best record in the conference.
However, there is a scenario where Louisville and UNC (currently 4-2) both could end the season with a 6-2 conference record and no head-to-head tiebreaker. And here is the explanation of how Louisville would prevail in that scenario.
With no head-to-head, the first tiebreaker is the win percentage among all common opponents. Louisville and UNC have six common opponents (GT, NC State, Duke, uva, Pitt, and Miami), and they would both have 4-2 records over that group.
Now we have to go to the next tiebreaker, where we compare the wins and losses of the two tied teams against each common opponent in order of conference standings. As soon as we find a common opponent where one team beat them, that team gets the tiebreaker.
For this step, there are only four common opponents that we care about: Georgia Tech, uva, Pitt, and Miami.
Pitt and uva are both 1-5, and unable to climb above GT (4-3) or Miami (2-4) in the standings. However, we won't see Miami jump GT in the standings. Even if both end up at 4-4, GT has a head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami.
All of that to say that this tiebreaker step is ultimately just a comparison between the outcome of Louisville's and UNC's games against Georgia Tech -- Louisville won while UNC lost, so Louisville wins the tiebreaker.
I might have missed a few things, so there is some slim hope for two other ACC teams.
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
Both teams clinched based on the best record in their divisions. Every other SEC team has at least two conference losses.
What's interesting is that the Ole Miss at Georgia game could have determined the championship participants for both divisions by itself (Georgia would clinch the East with a win and an Ole Miss loss would give the West to Alabama), but both divisions got decided by outcomes earlier in the day.
Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (7-0)
W: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan State, PSU
-Ohio State (7-0)
W: Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, MSU
Regardless of the outcomes of the week 12 games, the OSU/Michigan week 13 matchup has once again become a winner-take-all for the Big Ten East. The winner of that game will have either 0 or 1 losses, while everyone else in the division has 2 or more.
Out of contention:
-Penn State (5-2)
W: Indiana, Maryland
L: Ohio State, Michigan
-Rutgers (3-4)
W: Michigan State, Indiana
L: Michigan, Ohio State
-Maryland (3-4)
W: Michigan State, Indiana
L: Ohio State, Penn State
-Indiana (2-5)
L: Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers, PSU
-Michigan State (1-6)
L: Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, OSU
West
Controls destiny:
-Iowa (5-2) can clinch with a win.
W: Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern
L: Minnesota
Out of control:
-Minnesota (3-4)
W: Nebraska, Iowa
L: Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue
-Nebraska (3-4)
W: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
L: Minnesota
-Northwestern (3-4)
W: Minnesota, Wisconsin
L: Nebraska, Iowa
Any of these teams are eliminated with a loss OR an Iowa win.
Out of contention:
-Wisconsin (3-4)
W: Purdue, Illinois
L: Iowa, Northwestern
-Illinois (2-5)
W: Minnesota
L: Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin
-Purdue (2-5)
W: Illinois, Minnesota
L: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
At this point, any of the 3-4 teams would need to win out and have Iowa lose out to force a tie at 5-4. Since Wisconsin still has to play both Nebraska and Minnesota, that limits the number of possible tie scenarios - meaning that no scenario allows for any combination or Wisconsin/Nebraska or Wisconsin/Minnesota. But since Wisconsin has already lost to both Iowa and Northwestern, they can't win any other tiebreakers, so they are out.
Drive for 325: Hey, Iowa managed to increase their average this week!
After 10 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 188 / 250
Points per game: 18.8
Big 12
Controls destiny:
-Texas (6-1)
W: Baylor, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Kansas State, TCU
L: Oklahoma
Needs help:
-Oklahoma State (5-2)
W: Kansas State, Kansas, WVU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma
L: Iowa State, UCF
-Kansas State (5-2)
W: UCF, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Baylor
L: OK State, Texas
-Oklahoma (5-2)
W: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas, UCF, WVU
L: Kansas, Oklahoma State
-Iowa State (5-2)
W: Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, BYU
L: Oklahoma, Kansas
-West Virginia (4-3)
W: Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, BYU
L: Houston, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
-Texas Tech (4-3)
W: Houston, Baylor, TCU, Kansas
L: WVU, Kansas State, BYU
-Kansas (4-3)
W: BYU, UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa State
L: Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Since Kansas State and Iowa State play each other in the final week, we know that there will be a second team to achieve 6 wins. Any 3-loss team will be eliminated with a loss.
Out of contention:
-BYU (2-5)
W: Cincinnati, Texas Tech
L: Kansas, TCU, Texas, WVU, Iowa State
-Baylor (2-5)
W: UCF, Cincinnati
L: Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas State
-TCU (2-5)
W: Houston, BYU
L: WVU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Texas
-Houston (2-5)
W: WVU, Baylor
L: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Cincinnati
-Cincinnati (1-6)
W: Houston
L: Oklahoma, BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF
-UCF (2-5)
W: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
L: Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, WVU
Pac-12
Controls destiny:
-Washington (7-0) - Big Ten
W: Cal, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford, USC, Utah
Washington hasn't clenched a berth quite yet, but they not only clench a berth but the #1 seed with a win over Oregon State.
Controls destiny for #2 seed, needs help for #1 seed:
-Oregon (6-1) - Big Ten
W: Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, Utah, Cal, USC
L: Washington
Still in play, but not sure about destiny:
-Arizona (5-2) - Big 12
W: Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State, UCLA, Colorado
L: Washington, USC
-Oregon State (5-2) - Pac-2
W: Utah, Cal, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
L: Washington State, Arizona
There are many tie scenarios involving these teams, including a four way tie at 7-2. Those tiebreakers get a little tricky as Oregon and Arizona didn't play during the season. Between these two teams, I believe Oregon State has the easier path -- if Arizona loses a game and drops out of the tie scenario, then Oregon State only needs to win out to get into the top two. Arizona still has to rely on several tiebreakers.
Arizona and Oregon State both get eliminated with a loss AND an Oregon win.
If Washington and Oregon both win, then the championship game is set.
Out of contention for #1 seed, needs help for #2:
-USC (5-3) - Big Ten
W: Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona, Cal
L: Utah, Washington, Oregon
-Utah (4-3) - Big 12
W: UCLA, Cal, USC, Arizona State
L: Oregon State, Oregon, Washington
Either team will be eliminated with a loss OR an Oregon win.
Out of contention:
-UCLA (3-4) - Big Ten
W: Washington State, Stanford, Colorado
L: Utah, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State
Washington State (1-6) - Pac-2
W: Oregon State
L: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford, Cal
Cal (2-5) - ACC
W: Arizona State, Washington State
L: Washington, Oregon State, Utah, USC, Oregon
Colorado (1-6) - Big 12
W: Arizona State
L: Oregon, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona
Arizona State (2-5) - Big 12
W: Washington State, UCLA
L: USC, Cal, Colorado, Washington, Utah
Stanford (2-6) - ACC
W: Colorado, Washington State
L: USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State
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