Saturday, November 25, 2023

2023 Week 13 Black Friday update

Black Friday brought some deals to a few teams heading to conference championships.

ACC Championship:  Florida State Seminoles (8-0) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-1)
Both teams clinched by virtue of having the two best records in conference.  No tiebreakers needed.  

SEC Championship:  Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
Both teams clinched based on the best record in their divisions.  Every other SEC team has at least two conference losses.

Big Ten
East
Michigan (8-0) at Ohio State (8-0) is a winner-take-all game for the division.  The winner will have the best record in the division, and no tiebreakers are required.  Every other team in the division has at least 2 conference losses.

West Champions:  Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2)
Iowa has the best record in the division, as everyone else has at least 4 losses.

Between everyone else's win/loss record, and Iowa's phobia of points, I don't know if anyone really wanted to win the division.

Drive for 325:  In order to hit 325 points in 13 games, Iowa will need to score 109 points in the conference championship.  Or, they could average 67 points in the championship game and the bowl game to get to 350 in 14 games.

After 12 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 216 / 300
Points per game:  18

Big 12
Clinched #1 seed:
-Texas (8-1)
   W:  Baylor, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech
   L:  Oklahoma

Oklahoma's win last night raised them to 7-2, meaning that any team with 3 or more is out of contention.  But it also means that they are involved in any potential tie scenario if Oklahoma State or Kansas State wins today.

Controls destiny:
-Oklahoma State (6-2) can clinch with a win, but eliminated with a loss.
   W:  Kansas State, Kansas, WVU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Houston
   L:  Iowa State, UCF
remaining game:  BYU

Oklahoma State comes out ahead in any tiebreaking scenario, since they have head-to-head wins over both Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Needs help:
-Oklahoma (7-2) can clinch with losses by Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
   W:  Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas, UCF, WVU, BYU, TCU
   L:  Kansas, Oklahoma State


-Kansas State (6-2) may have a chance?
   W:  UCF, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Kansas
   L:  OK State, Texas
remaining game:  Iowa State

While I know that Kansas State is out with a loss or Oklahoma State win, I don't know if they are still in contention otherwise.

A two-way tie between Oklahoma and Kansas State would have to go down several tiebreakers, and would likely rely on outcomes of other conference games.  (In this scenario, both of them went 4-2 against 6 common opponents.)

We'd have to look at the group of teams within a game of ending 5-4:
-Iowa State (would be 5-4 after losing to K-State)
-WVU (currently 5-3, but could go 6-3 or 5-4)
-Texas Tech (5-4)
-Kansas (4-4, but could bump up to 5-4 with a win)

WVU did not play K-State, so they wouldn't be useful for the "next highest placed common opponent" tiebreaker.

Without doing all of the work, it looks like to me that Kansas State's best chance is rooting for Oklahoma State and Kansas to both lose.  If Kansas loses and drops to 4-5, they won't be tied with any other team, and count as a common opponent for both.

Out of contention:
-Iowa State (5-3)
   W:  Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, BYU
   L:  Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas
-West Virginia (5-3)
   W:  Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, BYU, Cincinnati
   L:  Houston, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
-Texas Tech (5-4)
   W:  Houston, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, UCF
   L:  WVU, Kansas State, BYU, Texas
-Kansas (4-4)
   W:  BYU, UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa State
   L:  Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State

-TCU (3-6)
   W:  Houston, BYU, Baylor
   L:  WVU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma

-BYU (2-6)
   W:  Cincinnati, Texas Tech
   L:  Kansas, TCU, Texas, WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma
-Baylor (2-6)
   W:  UCF, Cincinnati
   L:  Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas State, TCU
-Houston (2-6)
   W:  WVU, Baylor
   L:  TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
-UCF (2-6)
   W:  Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
   L:  Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, WVU, Texas Tech
-Cincinnati (1-7)
   W:  Houston
   L:  Oklahoma, BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, WVU

Pac-12 Championship:  Washington Huskies (8-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (8-1)
These teams had the best records in the conference.  No tiebreakers were needed as everyone else in the conference had at least two losses.  This championship game will be a rematch of the October game that Washington won by 3 points.

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