We're down to the final week of the season, and four championship game slots are up for grabs. However, the Big 12 really needs to stop overthinking their tiebreakers and get them to make more sense.
ACC Championship: Florida State Seminoles (8-0) vs. Louisville Cardinals (6-1)
Both teams clinched by virtue of having the two best records in conference. No tiebreakers needed. (Makes all of the work last week seem silly.)
One of the reasons I like having divisions is that every team is represented by the conference championship participants, but there is one school left out of direct representation in the ACCCG this year.
Teams that played both: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Duke, Pitt, Miami
Teams that only played FSU: Clemson, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Teams that only played Louisville: Georgia Tech, NC State, uva
Teams that played neither: UNC
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
Both teams clinched based on the best record in their divisions. Every other SEC team has at least two conference losses.
Big Ten
East
Michigan (8-0) at Ohio State (8-0) on November 25 is a winner-take-all game for the division. The winner will have the best record in the division, and no tiebreakers are required. Every other team in the division has at least 2 conference losses.
West Champions: Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
Regardless of next week's outcome, Iowa has the best record in the division, as everyone else has at least 4 losses.
Between everyone else's win/loss record, and Iowa's phobia of points, I don't know if anyone really wanted to win the division.
Drive for 325: At one point in the game, Iowa was leading 2-0. And they won by 2 points. We're being generous by counting those two points in the total as they were technically scored by the defense.
After 11 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 203 / 275
Points per game: 18.45
Big 12
Even after offering a clarification, the Big 12's tiebreakers still create a confusing mess. There is still a chance for a 4 way tie for first place in the conference, and the main tiebreaker for that will determine on who the fifth place team is, where there is currently a 3-way tie.
If Texas loses while the three 6-2 teams all win, that will create a 4-way tie at 7-2 between Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma, but each of those four teams only played two of the other three. That will require us to go to the next tiebreaker, which is the record against the next highest team in the standings. But wait, if there's a group of teams tied, then we look at the win percentage against that group instead of breaking the tie among the group.
Let's keep in mind that the only two common opponents of the four teams at the top are Iowa State and Kansas.
Right now, Iowa State, WVU, and Texas Tech are all tied for the fifth spot at 5-3. In this scenario, Texas Tech would bump up to 6-3 (since they would have beaten Texas to force the tie). That means, we have some combination of Texas Tech, WVU, and Iowa State sitting at 6-3 in the fifth position in the standings.
The only way that this tiebreaking step doesn't completely go off the rails is if WVU wins and Iowa State loses. In that case, you get Texas Tech and WVU tied for 5th, but since neither played all four, we'd go down to the 7th position, most likely Iowa State at 5-4. That would knock Oklahoma State out of contention and send us to a three-way tie of Texas, Oklahoma, and K-State.
But...if Kansas wins and also finishes as 5-4, that means they tie Iowa State and we have to compare the records as a group. Oh wait, that just brings us to the next tiebreaking step anyway -- common opponents, which we already determined were Iowa State and Kansas.
Texas and Kansas State went 2-0 against them, while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State went 1-1. That leaves Texas and Kansas State as the two participants of the championship game, with Texas getting the #1 seed due to their head-to-head win over K-State.
You know, other conferences put that tiebreaker first.
All that being said, I'm not going through all of the possibilities because there are way too many, and I feel like the Big 12 has bad tiebreaking procedures.
Controls destiny:
-Texas (7-1)
W: Baylor, Kansas, Houston, BYU, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State
L: Oklahoma
remaining game: Texas Tech
Texas will clearly clinch the #1 seed with a win. If they lose, well, they still have a very good chance of getting into the game, but I don't think it's guaranteed.
In contention:
-Oklahoma State (6-2)
W: Kansas State, Kansas, WVU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Houston
L: Iowa State, UCF
remaining game: BYU
-Kansas State (6-2)
W: UCF, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Kansas
L: OK State, Texas
remaining game: Iowa State
-Oklahoma (6-2)
W: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Texas, UCF, WVU, BYU
L: Kansas, Oklahoma State
remaining game: TCU
Oklahoma State has the best chance out of that group, since they have beaten the other two teams. They either want Texas to win, or at least one of the other two teams to lose so it doesn't force that 4-way tie.
If still in contention, it's only for the #2 seed:
-Iowa State (5-3)
W: Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, BYU
L: Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas
remaining game: Kansas State
-West Virginia (5-3)
W: Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, BYU, Cincinnati
L: Houston, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
remaining game: Baylor
-Texas Tech (5-3)
W: Houston, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, UCF
L: WVU, Kansas State, BYU
remaining game: Texas
I think any of these teams are a long shot, as they all probably need all of the current 6-2 teams to lose, and then rely on tiebreakers.
But, if Oklahoma beats TCU on Friday, then all of these teams would be eliminate prior to playing on Saturday. (An Oklahoma victory would guarantee that the top two teams in the conference have at least 7 wins.)
Out of contention:
-Kansas (4-4)
W: BYU, UCF, Oklahoma, Iowa State
L: Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State
-TCU (3-5)
W: Houston, BYU, Baylor
L: WVU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Texas
-BYU (2-6)
W: Cincinnati, Texas Tech
L: Kansas, TCU, Texas, WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma
-Baylor (2-6)
W: UCF, Cincinnati
L: Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas State, TCU
-Houston (2-6)
W: WVU, Baylor
L: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
-UCF (2-6)
W: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
L: Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, WVU, Texas Tech
-Cincinnati (1-7)
W: Houston
L: Oklahoma, BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, WVU
Pac-12
Clenched #1 seed:
-Washington (8-0)
W: Cal, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford, USC, Utah, Oregon State
Controls destiny for #2 seed:
-Oregon (7-1) can clinch with a win OR Arizona loss.
W: Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, Utah, Cal, USC, Arizona State
L: Washington
Needs help:
-Arizona (6-2) can clinch with a win AND Oregon loss.
W: Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State, UCLA, Colorado, Utah
L: Washington, USC
If Oregon loses (to Oregon State) and Arizona wins, then both teams will be 7-2. The first tiebreaker in the Pac-12 is win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent. In this case, it would be Oregon State (who would be 6-3 in this scenario). Since Arizona would have a win against them while Oregon would not, Arizona wins the tiebreaker.
Out of contention:
-Oregon State (5-3)
W: Utah, Cal, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
L: Washington State, Arizona, Washington
-USC (5-4)
W: Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona, Cal
L: Utah, Washington, Oregon, UCLA
-Utah (4-4)
W: UCLA, Cal, USC, Arizona State
L: Oregon State, Oregon, Washington, Arizona
-UCLA (4-4)
W: Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, USC
L: Utah, Oregon State, Arizona, Arizona State
Washington State (2-6)
W: Oregon State, Colorado
L: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford, Cal
Cal (3-5)
W: Arizona State, Washington State, Stanford
L: Washington, Oregon State, Utah, USC, Oregon
Colorado (1-7)
W: Arizona State
L: Oregon, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State
Arizona State (2-6)
W: Washington State, UCLA
L: USC, Cal, Colorado, Washington, Utah, Oregon
Stanford (2-7)
W: Colorado, Washington State
L: USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State, Cal
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