10th-Week Look-In, 2022 Season

 I last did one of these after Week 5; this next one is BEFORE the bulk of Week 10 (technically "during", as the midweek MACtion has already been played).

We now have CFP Rankings to look at, which officially gets us into the race to the finish!

Unlike the national media outlets, who are all focusing on the Playoff and the very top, I thought I'd look at things from pure thrill of the P5 conference races.

SEC

In the East:

• The Georgia-Tennessee game figures to be the decider.  
• The winner between these two teams this weekend will have a little longer to go - albeit with a very favorable road - before a clinch can happen (Georgia: 1 game; Tennessee: 2 games). 

In the West:

• If Alabama wins on the road against LSU, then next weekend will be a repeat of the same: on the road to Ole Miss in a battle for control of the Division. 
• If LSU wins, then they're in control. But with Ole Miss tied in the standings, the H2H tiebreaker doesn't do any good if Ole Miss wins out and LSU drops another - thus removing the tie.

ACC

Clemson hasn't officially clinched the Atlantic yet at 6-0 in ACC play, as Syracuse has just 1 conference loss. 

• The Tigers face non-conference Notre Dame on Saturday night, and thus can't get to 7-0 just yet.  
• But if Syracuse continues their slide and loses to Pitt, then that would allow Clemson to clinch.

Meanwhile, the Coastal Division is gravitating heavily to UNC.  The Tar Heels have only played 4 conference games, but their division mates are quickly racking up the losses!  

• With the right combination of games this weekend, UNC can clinch as soon as this weekend - possibly even sooner than Clemson! 

For people who like clarity, this conference race is frustrating, as the bye/Notre Dame schedule is keeping teams from clinching sooner.

For people who like a race to the last minute, this is frustrating, as the divisions are virtually in-hand - just not officially.

Big Ten

Both divisions have a clear pair of front-runners. One pair MUCH more highly-regarded than the other.

In the East, all eyes are on Michigan and Ohio State. Both teams are heavily favored to make it to their season-ending rivalry game at 11-0; anything less would be an epic stunner. 

In the West, Illinois has been a pleasant surprise. Just one loss to Indiana, which looks like a major stunner now at this point in the season. Purdue, meanwhile, has 2 conference losses: Penn State and Wisconsin. These two teams play on November 12.

• If Illinois can win vs. as a reeling (and deservedly shorthanded) Michigan State team this weekend, and then knock off Purdue, then that would be enough to clinch things for the Illini in their home finale.
• Even a loss against the Spartans keeps Illinois in control of the division, but probably removes the ability to clinch at home.
• If Purdue wins at home against Iowa (a little tougher ask than Illinois vs. MSU), and then on the road at Illinois, then the Boilermakers can gain control for themselves!
• Any other result than 3-1 (or 2-2 if both wins are Illinois) for these teams in the next two weeks, and the division becomes a thing of great intrigue!

Big 12

TCU is in firm control at this point. But it's not a done deal yet.  Texas and Baylor are both in striking distance, and have shown flashes of greatness mixed in with some frustrating losses.

Kansas State is in 2nd at the moment, again seemingly firmly. But the Wildcats also have both Texas and Baylor forthcoming.

Oh, and Texas and Baylor still have each other to come too!

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is sitting at just 2 losses (2-2 against the above group) and would absolutely LOVE for these teams to knock each other out. But they have to get back on track after an absolute thrashing by K-State.

Any of these trailing teams could get on a roll.  Once again, the round-robin sets up for a very nice November!  And that doesn't account for other teams (Oklahoma showing they're "back on track", Kansas getting win #6 for their first bowl since 2008, or a random West VA/Iowa State shocker).

PAC-12

There are 4 frontrunners in the division-free PAC-12 this season.  Oregon.  USC.  UCLA.  Utah.

Among this group, only Oregon and USC don't play each other (the schedule was set up with divisions still in place, but the championship game qualifying criteria changed to "Top 2" before the season).

So far, Utah is 1-1 against the group, beating USC but losing to UCLA.  Oregon has a win over UCLA, with the Oregon-Utah game coming November 19.

A potential "danger scenario" could occur if Utah beats Oregon, and then USC beats UCLA.  Assuming no other upsets among the trio, we would have three 8-1 teams, and an incomplete head-to-head triangle.

According to the PAC-12 tiebreaker rules:

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tie-breaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied. 

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 2. 
2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie) 

I've seen arguments to determine the participants in TWO different ways. 

• Even though Utah would be 2-0 against Oregon and USC in this scenario, Step 1 specifically says to skip to step 2 if not all of the tied teams played (USC and Oregon, in this case).
• Based on Step 2, Utah would lose out due to their loss to UCLA. This would leave Oregon and USC. 
• According to one interpretation (we'll call it "Interpretation A"), Step 2 would leave two tied teams - the two participants in the CCG. Oregon vs. USC.
• According to another interpretation ("Interpretation B"), the process would go until either USC or Oregon are placed - in order to give one team the advantage and get that team seeded. Utah would then clinch the 2nd seed due to their hypothetical H2H over either remaining team.

I tend to lean toward Interpretation B, since it follows the literal words of the rules provided by the PAC-12.  Ideally, the conference would have included a rule at the beginning of the whole process to avoid any confusion: If one team has beaten ALL of the other tied teams, then that team is considered the tiebreaker winner.

Between the big-time matchups, conference races, NY6 chases, or even team-specific accomplishments (Kansas in a bowl), November is full of things to look forward to!

I look forward to another post in mid-November to provide my own insights to the "big" items. For now, hopefully this is a good look at things from the P5 conference level!