Two entire championship games are set, and we have a winner-take-all division matchup set. But somehow, one division has managed to completely tie itself into a knot?
ACC Championship: Clemson Tigers (7-0) vs. UNC Tar Heels (6-0)
Clemson has the best record in the Atlantic. UNC has the best record in the Coastal, along with tiebreakers over any team that could potentially end up with the same record as them.
Out of contention (Atlantic):
-Florida State (5-3)
-Syracuse (3-3)
-Wake Forest (2-3)
-NC State (3-3)
-Louisville (3-4)
-Boston College (2-5)
Out of contention (Coastal):
-Duke (4-2)
-Miami (3-3)
-Pitt (3-3)
-Georgia Tech (3-4)
-uva (1-6)
-Virginia Tech (1-6)
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) vs. LSU Tigers (6-1)
Both teams have the best record in their division. Even with a loss, they both have all of the necessary head-to-head tiebreakers against any teams that could achieve the same record (Georgia over Tennessee, LSU over Ole Miss and Alabama).
Out of contention (East):
-Tennessee (5-1)
-Florida (3-4)
-South Carolina (3-4)
-Kentucky (3-4)
-Mizzou (2-5)
-Vanderbilt (1-5)
Out of contention (West):
-Alabama (5-2)
-Ole Miss (4-2)
-Mississippi State (3-4)
-Arkansas (2-4)
-Texas A&M (1-5)
-Auburn (1-5)
Last week, I completely missed the scenario that LSU could clinch this week with a win and a loss by Ole Miss.
Big Ten
East
Michigan (7-0) at Ohio State (7-0) on November 26 is a winner-take-all game for the division.
Regardless of the outcomes of next weekend's games, the winner with either have the best record in the division, or both teams will have the same record and the winner will hold the tiebreaker.
Since the worst possible record for the winner of that game is 8-1, any team with more than 1 loss is eliminated.
Out of contention:
-Penn State (5-2)
-Maryland (3-4)
-Michigan State (3-4)
-Rutgers (1-6)
-Indiana (1-6)
West
Needs help:
-Illinois (4-3) needs a loss by Purdue.
W: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska
L: Purdue
Remaining: Michigan, Northwestern
-Iowa (4-3) needs a loss by Illinois.
W: Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
L: Illinois
Remaining: Minnesota, Nebraska
-Purdue (4-3) needs a loss by Iowa.
W: Minnesota, Nebraska, Illinois
L: Wisconsin, Iowa
Remaining: Northwestern, Indiana
-Minnesota (4-3) needs losses by Purdue and Illinois.
W: Nebraska, Northwestern
L: Purdue, Illinois
Remaining: Iowa, Wisconsin
-Wisconsin (3-4) needs losses by Illinois (2) and Iowa (2).
W: Northwestern, Purdue
L: Illinois, Iowa
Remaining: Nebraska, Minnesota
-Nebraska (2-5) needs losses by Minnesota (3), Purdue (3), and Illinois (3).
L: Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota
Remaining: Wisconsin, Iowa
Out of contention:
-Northwestern (1-6)
I don't think I've ever seen such a mess of a race. Four teams tied with the same record, yet they all basically lost to each other.
Big 12
Clinched the #1 seed:
-TCU (7-0)
W: Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, WVU, Texas Tech, Texas
Even if TCU loses out, there's no team that can achieve a better record. Only Kansas State could achieve the same record, but TCU has the head-to-head.
Controls destiny:
-Kansas State (5-2)
W: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Baylor
L: TCU, Texas
Needs help:
-Texas (4-3) needs a Kansas State loss.
W: WVU, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Kansas State
L: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU
-Oklahoma State (4-3) needs losses by Kansas State (2).
W: Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
L: TCU, Kansas State, Kansas
-Baylor (4-3) needs losses by Kansas State (2) and Oklahoma State.
W: Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma
L: Oklahoma State, WVU, K-State
Any of these teams will be eliminated with a loss and Kansas State win.
Maybe out of contention:
-Kansas (3-4)
W: WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
L: TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas Tech
-Texas Tech (3-4)
W: Texas, WVU, Kansas
L: Kansas State, OK State, Baylor, TCU
Honestly, I can't tell how the tiebreakers might work out here. Either team will definitely be eliminated with a loss or Kansas State win. (I know that I had Texas Tech as out of contention last week, but that was based on a narrow look at scenarios, and I might not have considered all possibilities.)
It is possible for Kansas State to clinch with a win if all of the 4-3 teams lose. Oklahoma State plays Oklahoma, who is already out. Baylor plays TCU, who is already in. And Texas plays Kansas, who will be eliminated if Kansas State wins anyway.
Out of contention:
-Oklahoma (2-5)
W: Kansas, Iowa State
L: Kansas State, TCU, Texas, Baylor, WVU
-Iowa State (1-6)
W: WVU
L: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
-West Virginia (2-5)
W: Baylor, Oklahoma
L: Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State
Pac-12
-Oregon (6-1)
W: Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal, Colorado
L: Washington
Remaining: Utah, Oregon State
-Utah (6-1)
W: Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford
L: UCLA
Remaining: Oregon, Colorado
-USC (7-1)
W: Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Arizona, Cal, Colorado
L: Utah
Remaining: UCLA
-UCLA (5-2)
W: Colorado, Washington, Utah, Stanford, Arizona State
L: Oregon, Arizona
Remaining: USC, Cal
-Washington (5-2)
W: Stanford, Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Oregon
L: UCLA, Arizona State
Remaining: Colorado, Washington State
With USC already having 7 wins and the winner of Oregon/Utah guaranteed a 7th win, then we know that anyone with more than 2 losses is automatically eliminated.
UCLA and Washington will be eliminated with a loss next week.
I think USC will clinch a spot with a win against UCLA. That would put them at 8-1, and the only other team that could finish with only one loss would be the winner of Oregon/Utah.
I'm pretty sure that Oregon, Utah, and USC are all still in control, because winning out for any of them should keep them in the top 2.
I'm not sure if UCLA is completely in control of their destiny, but things look good if they win out and Oregon beats Utah, giving UCLA a good chance at the #2 seed. (In theory, Oregon could finish 8-1, then if UCLA, USC, and Utah all finish 7-2, UCLA has tiebreakers over both of the other teams.)
Out of contention:
-Oregon State (4-3)
-Washington State (3-4)
-Arizona State (2-5)
-Arizona (2-5)
-Cal (1-6)
-Colorado (1-5)
-Stanford (1-7)
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