With an extra day of games, including a few key ones, we have a few more conference pieces in place.
ACC Championship: Clemson Tigers (8-0) vs. UNC Tar Heels (6-2)
Both teams clinched their divisions by virtue of having the best record in either division. There will be no tiebreakers required in the ACC.
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vs. LSU Tigers (6-1)
Georgia has the best record in the East. If LSU wins their last game, they will have the best record in the West, and no tiebreakers are needed. If they lose, they still have head-to-head tiebreakers over any other 2-loss team.
Big Ten
East
Michigan (8-0) at Ohio State (8-0) on November 26 is a winner-take-all game for the division. The winner will have the best record in the division, and no tiebreakers are required.
West
With Iowa losing today, we've got to look at the Saturday games, specifically the 3:30 timeslot. First, if Purdue (5-3) goes to Indiana and wins, they clinch the division with the best record. If they lose, then we're looking at Illinois (4-4) going to Northwestern.
-Purdue (5-3) can clinch with a win over Indiana.
W: Minnesota, Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern
L: Wisconsin, Iowa
-Illinois (4-4) can clinch with a win and Purdue loss.
W: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska
L: Purdue
-Iowa (5-4) can clinch losses by Illinois and Purdue.
W: Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota
L: Illinois, Nebraska
Wisconsin and Minnesota are both also sitting at 4-4 and play each other. But as we illustrate below, both teams are already out of contention due to tiebreakers.
If Purdue loses, then we are going to be seeing a tie at 5-4 at the top of the division. Iowa, Purdue, and the Wisconsin/Minnesota winner will all have to be involved. Illinois will only be involved with a win.
Scenario #1: Iowa/Purdue/Minnesota
--Setup: Minnesota beats Wisconsin; Purdue and Illinois all lose
--Outcome: Iowa clinches by having head-to-head over both teams.
Scenario #2: Iowa/Purdue/Wisconsin
--Setup: Wisconsin beats Minnesota; Purdue, and Illinois all lose
--Outcome: Iowa clinches by having head-to-head over both teams.
Scenario #3: Iowa/Purdue/Minnesota/Illinois
--Setup: Minnesota beats Wisconsin; Illinois wins; Purdue loses
--Outcome: Minnesota is 0-3 in the group, but the rest are 2-1.
---This moves us to a three way tie of Iowa/Purdue/Illinois. All three are 1-1 against each other.
----Divisional records: Iowa (4-2), Purdue (4-2), Illinois (5-1)
-----Illinois clinches on divisional record.
Scenario #4: Iowa/Purdue/Wisconsin/Illinois
--Setup: Wisconsin beats Minnesota; Illinois wins; Purdue loses
--Outcome: Purdue and Wisconsin are 1-2, Iowa and Illinois are 2-1. Illinois would clinch on head-to-head over Iowa.
Out of contention:
-Minnesota (4-4)
-Wisconsin (4-4)
-Nebraska (3-6)
-Northwestern (1-7)
Big 12
Clinched the #1 seed:
-TCU (8-0) -- best record in the Big 12.
Still in contention for #2 seed:
-Kansas State (6-2) can clinch with a win.
-Texas (6-3) can clinch with a Kansas State loss.
Texas has the tiebreaker over Kansas State, which is why they would clinch a berth if both teams end up 6-3.
Out of contention:
-Oklahoma State (4-4)
-Texas Tech (4-4)
-Baylor (4-5)
-Kansas (3-5)
-Oklahoma (3-5)
-West Virginia (2-6)
-Iowa State (1-7)
Pac-12
Clinched a spot:
-USC (8-1)
W: Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Arizona, Cal, Colorado, UCLA
L: Utah
USC is done with their conference schedule, so they are locked into one of the top two spots. If Oregon is the other team in the conference title game, and both teams are 8-1, I don't know how the Pac-12 intends to determine which team is #1, if they even care about that.
The second championship team will either have a record of 8-1 (only if Oregon wins) or 7-2. How do the scenarios play out for ties at 7-2?
Scenario #1 - Oregon/Utah
-Setup: Oregon and Washington lose, Utah wins.
-Outcome: Oregon wins on head-to-head.
Scenario #2 - Oregon/Washington
-Setup: Oregon and Utah lose, Washington wins.
-Outcome: Washington wins on head-to-head.
Before we get into the three way tie, here's a quick rundown of tiebreaking steps for the Pac-12. (I'm only including the steps that we'll actually be needing to use):
-Step 1: Head-to-head (but if all of the teams have not played, go to step two.)
-Step 2: Win percentage against common conference opponents.
--The only teams that played all three are Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, and Colorado.
Scenario #3 - Oregon/Utah/Washington
-Setup: Oregon loses, Utah and Washington win
-Step 1: Oregon beat both Utah and Washington, but those two teams didn't play each other.
-Step 2: Records against common opponents - Oregon (5-0), Utah (4-1), Washington (4-1)
-Outcome: Oregon wins on tiebreakers.
-Oregon (7-1) can clinch with a win or Washington loss.
W: Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal, Colorado, Utah
L: Washington
Remaining: Oregon State
-Washington (6-2) can clinch with a win and Oregon loss.
W: Stanford, Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Oregon, Colorado
L: UCLA, Arizona State
Remaining: Washington State
Out of contention:
-Utah (6-2)
W: Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford
L: UCLA, Oregon
Remaining: Colorado
-UCLA (6-3)
-Oregon State (5-3)
-Washington State (4-4)
-Arizona State (2-7)
-Arizona (3-6)
-Cal (2-7)
-Colorado (1-6)
-Stanford (1-8)
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