New Year's Six projections: Week 11

Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this year, limiting the at-large positions.

Projected semi-finals:
#1 Georgia vs. #5 Tennessee
winner of #2 Ohio State/#3 Michigan vs. #4 TCU

There's no sense projecting any semi-final that will pit OSU against Michigan again.

Rose Bowl:  loser of #2 Ohio State/#3 Michigan vs. #7 USC
Since the winner of OSU/Michigan is projected to eventually win the conference, the Rose Bowl will be looking at the highest ranked Big Ten team remaining.  While the Pac-12 still has quite a bit of settling to do in the next week, USC is the highest ranked team at this point.

Sugar Bowl: #6 LSU vs. #19 Kansas State
Both of the normal participants (SEC and Big 12 champs) are projected to be in the CFP, so we just go with the next highest ranked team from each conference.  (Or third in the SEC's case, as Tennessee is projected into a semi-final.)

Orange Bowl:  winner of #9 Clemson/#13 UNC vs. #8 Alabama
Hedging the bets here, as the ACCCG is a matchup of the two highest ranked teams in the conference, and the winner will go here, barring any craziness in the last two weeks that could catapult the winner into the CFP.  On the other side of the matchup, we go with the highest ranked team out of the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame that isn't already committed to the CFP, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl.

Cotton Bowl:  #17 UCF vs. #10 Utah
I haven't looked at the G5 races close enough to see if UCF can actually win their conference, but they are currently the highest ranked G5 team.  Meanwhile, Utah is the highest ranked team not already committed to a bowl.

I don't expect any of these matchups to actually happen, though.