With Rivalry Week upon us, and the 3rd-to-last CFP rankings available, I wanted to take a look at the few remaining pieces of this season's conference and NY6 chase.
Chip does such an excellent job in the weekly wrap-up posts, so I'm not going to duplicate those efforts. But I will focus on the rankings, some open paths that some teams might still have for the Playoff or the NY6, and the Group of 5 races.
Rankings Reaction
At this point, the unbeaten teams are the top teams. Even with close wins by TCU throughout the season (including an epic finish against Baylor this past weekend), the Horned Frogs don't seem to have an issue staying ahead of imperfect teams. This wasn't always the case with P5 teams.
- 2014 Florida State ("ugly" wins) and 2020 Ohio State (fewer games played) ranked below a team or two with a loss.
- On top of that, 2015 Iowa and 2017 Wisconsin were ranked below multiple 1-loss teams (and for 2017, a 2-loss Auburn) before losing the Big Ten Championship Game.
I thought that Alabama and LSU's "cupcake week" would allow for the two SEC teams to be jumped by, respectively, Clemson and USC. To me, it seems that different subjective and objective arguments can be made for Teams 5/6, and again for 7/8.
As bas as the Tennessee loss was to South Carolina, the quality wins over LSU and Alabama are keeping the Vols in NY6 range over Penn State. The Nittany Lions aren't totally out of the NY6 picture, but they will need some help.
I was surprised to see UCF stay in the rankings despite a loss to a bad Navy team. But I suppose those wins over Cincy and Tulane are keeping them afloat. And with Louisville now also ranked, that close loss doesn't seem like an issue at all.
Speaking of Louisville, it pleases me to see their momentum rewarded. I would love to see the ACC go 3-1 against the SEC this weekend (GT has done well with their interim coach, but Georgia is just a whole different beast) and give the conference something to look forward to!
Playoff/NY6 Thoughts
I will dive deeper into these next week, when the penultimate rankings come out. Based on how the committee continues to see the teams at the top, here are my key takeaways:
- There are still a handful of contenders beyond the current Top 4. USC has a clearer path than Clemson, but both teams still have a shot.
- LSU is well-positioned to make it as a 2-loss team, just as Auburn was in 2017. But it's not a given, and the Georgia will probably be a considerable favorite.
- If the comparison is against 11-1 Michigan, I like 12-1 USC's chances. 12-1 Clemson could go either way, depending on how convincing they look against the Carolinas.
- If the comparison is against 11-1 Ohio State, I still like 12-1 USC's chances. I do not like Clemson's chances due to the common opponent in Notre Dame.
- The Ohio State-Michigan winner will have a great addition to their resume after this weekend. Based on what happens elsewhere, the loser might not be out of it. Michigan will probably need more help if they lose due to a weaker overall schedule.
- The one true at-large spot will be highly contested. Tennessee and Penn State are playing rivals seeking their 6th win (Vanderbilt and Michigan State, respectively), and aren't so much better to where they can overlook their opponent. That Cotton Bowl spot is nowhere near certain.
- For the Playoff, Clemson needs to win (preferably convincingly) and hope for Ohio State to beat Michigan, Georgia to beat LSU, and either Notre Dame or Oregon (preferably the former) to beat USC. A lot of steps, but not the wildest of scenarios.
- If the ACC misses out on the Playoff, the bowl season can still be bright for the conference. Clemson could be playing with more to prove in the Orange Bowl, UNC and Florida State could get some favorable matchups, and teams like Louisville and Duke could put a bow on some already-exceeded expectations!
Group of 5 Races
American
This week's CFP ranking could prove pivotal in determining the AAC Championship Game participants. However it shakes out, the champion appears virtually certain to make the Cotton Bowl NY6 bid.
Here are the teams still with a chance, and their conference standings:
19 Tulane 6-1 (plays at Cincy on Friday)
24 Cincinnati 6-1 (hosts Tulane on Friday)
22 UCF 5-2 (plays at 1-10 USF on Saturday)
Houston 5-2 (hosts 4-7 Tulsa on Saturday)
UCF has a head-to-head over both Tulane and Cincy, but did not play Houston.
Houston lost to Tulane, but did not play Cincy or UCF.
The winner of Friday's Cincy-Tulane game will clinch a spot - AND host. The loser....well....
UCF loses, Houston loses
2nd place team: Tulane/Cincy loser (6-2) outright
Championship Game: Tulane/Cincy loser (6-2) at Tulane/Cincy winner (7-1)
UCF wins, Houston loses
Tied teams: UCF, Tulane/Cincy loser (6-2) {UCF has H2H}
Championship Game: UCF (6-2) at Cincy/Tulane winner (7-1)
UCF loses, Houston wins, Cincy wins
Tied teams: Houston, Tulane (6-2) {Tulane has H2H}
Championship Game: Tulane (6-2) at Cincy (7-1)
UCF loses, Houston wins, Tulane wins
Tied teams: Houston, Cincy (6-2)
Since there is no H2H between Houston and Cincy, I turn to the American's tiebreaker procedures - last updated in 2020 but still apparently in effect.
6.4.2.If one of the tied teams was ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings and
loses in the final weekend of regular season Conference play, then a composite average of selected
computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe) will be used to determine the
Championship Game participants
What this means: one of the tied teams was ranked (Cincy) and lost. Computers determine 2nd place between Cincy and Houston.
Championship Game: TBD (6-2) at Tulane (7-1)
UCF wins, Houston wins
Tied teams: Tulane/Cincy loser, UCF, Houston (6-2)
7.5.3.If there are multiple tied teams ranked in the latest available CFP Selection Committee rankings, the
highest-ranked team or teams that win in the final weekend of the Conference regular season will
be Championship Game participants
What this means: UCF was the highest-ranked team that won (Houston not ranked; Tulane/Cincy loser would not have won the final weekend).
Championship Game: UCF (6-2) at Cincy/Tulane winner (7-1)
Based on the above, UCF is still alive. In fact, the Knights control their own destiny!
To put it simply:
- The Tulane/Cincy winner is the #1 seed and hosts
- UCF is the #2 seed with a win, and out of contention with a loss
- The Tulane/Cincy loser still has a chance at the #2 seed, but needs UCF to lose
- Houston's only chance at the #2 seed is a win, a UCF loss, and a Tulane win over Cincy. And even then, it will come down to the computers which might still favor 9-3 Cincy over 8-4 Houston.
Note 1: "Latest available" is defined elsewhere in the procedures to refer to THIS WEEK'S rankings (November 22).
Note 2: Chip and I have both criticized the PAC-12 for making tiebreaker rules unnecessarily complicated. The American has it figured out in Rule 7.3:
The Conference records of the tied teams are compared in a mini round-robin format. If, within the mini
round-robin, any of the tied teams did not play each other, the group of teams shall remain tied, unless
one team defeated all other tied teams.
Hopefully the PAC-12, ACC, and other conferences that elect to eliminate Divisions in the future include this simple little statement to help with tiebreakers in the event that a tied team happened to beat everyone else who tied, even if the other tied teams didn't all play each other.
Sun Belt
Despite being ranked for the last couple of weeks and having just a single loss, Coastal Carolina is nowhere to be found in the CFP rankings.
- The loss to a bad (3-win) ODU really hurt the Chanticleers in the eyes of the committee.
- It also hurts that the next two strongest Sun Belt teams (Troy and South Alabama, both at 9 wins) are in the other Division and avoided the Chants in the regular season.
- A matchup of 10-win teams in the Championship Game will help, but alas for the conference, it doesn't look like it will help enough.
For what it's worth, Coastal has clinched their spot in the Sun Belt CG. Even if the Chants lose to JMU, the Dukes aren't eligible for the CG or a bowl due to their FBS transition. In the West, Troy clinches with a win OR a South Alabama loss; while the Jaguars clinch with a win AND a Trojans loss.
If there's the tiniest bit of silver lining, I suppose the Sun Belt could hope for Houston to be the CCG participant, and then beat Tulane. An 11-1 Coastal Carolina (or 11-2 Troy/South Alabama) might be able to rank above Houston.
Conference USA
This is a "Top 2" conference, like the American and the PAC-12 this season.
- UTSA has already clinched a spot in the CCG.
- North Texas clinches with a win OR a Western Kentucky loss
- Western Kentucky clinches with a win AND a North Texas loss
UTSA's close (triple OT) loss to Houston, plus a more convincing loss to Texas, kept the Roadrunners from having a NY6-contending resume despite a potential 11-2 record. Although they could finish AP-ranked if they win out.
Mountain West
This conference still has Divisions - at least for this year. Boise State (8-3) and Fresno State (7-4) have both clinched their spots. No NY6 berth at stake, but a chance to finish with a strong winning streak (Fresno: possible 9 wins; Boise: possible 5 wins) and momentum for 2023.
MAC
Divisions still exist here, too. Ohio (9-3) will face Toledo (7-4, with a game against Western Michigan on Friday) in their usual Detroit. Ohio can finish with a 9-game winning streak, and great momentum going into 2023 (two winnable P5 games - hosting Iowa State and at Rutgers).
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