We have our first championship game participant clenched! And wait...did Alabama just get knocked out of the playoff?
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic Champions: Clemson Tigers (6-0)
Even if Clemson loses out and ends the season at 6-2, they have head-to-head tiebreakers over the current 2-loss teams (Syracuse and NC State).
Out of contention:
-Syracuse (3-2)
-Wake Forest (2-3)
-NC State (3-2)
-Louisville (3-3)
-Florida State (4-3)
-Boston College (1-5)
Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UNC (5-0) can clinch with a win or losses by Duke and Georgia Tech.
W: VT, Miami, Duke, Pitt, uva
Needs help:
-Duke (3-2) will be eliminated with a loss or UNC win.
W: uva, Miami
L: GT, UNC
-Georgia Tech (3-3) will be eliminated with loss or UNC win.
W: Pitt, Duke
L: uva
Duke is the only team other than UNC that can win the division without tiebreakers, but that only happens if they win out while UNC loses out.
UNC is the only Coastal team that can achieve records of 8-0 or 7-1.
UNC and Duke are the only teams that can achieve a record of 6-2. We have three scenarios at 6-2:
#1 - UNC at 6-2
Setup: UNC loses 2 out of their last 3 games, Duke loses any of their last three games.
Outcome: UNC clinches with best record.
#2 - Duke at 6-2
Setup: UNC loses out, Duke wins out.
Outcome: Duke clinches with best record.
#3 - UNC/Duke tie at 6-2
Setup: UNC loses 2 out of their last 3 games, Duke wins out.
Outcome: UNC clinches based on the head-to-head over Duke.
Moving down to scenarios where 5-3 wins the division, we know that UNC has to be involved in all of them by losing out. By the same token, any scenarios involving any combination of UNC, Duke, Miami, and Pitt would go to UNC as they have all of the head-to-head tiebreakers. Therefore, the only scenarios worth looking at are the ones involving GT, who has yet to play UNC.
All of these scenarios are predicated on UNC losing out, as well as GT, Miami, or Pitt winning out.
#1 - UNC/GT
Outcome: GT would have head-to-head.
#2 - UNC/GT/Duke
Setup: Duke goes 2-1 in their final three.
Outcome: GT would be 2-0 against the group and clinch the division.
#3 - UNC/GT/Pitt
Setup: Pitt wins out (beating Duke and Miami) and Duke loses at least one other game.
Outcome: GT would be 2-0 against the group and clinch the division.
#4 - UNC/GT/Duke/Pitt
Setup: Pitt beats Duke, Duke wins their other two games.
Outcome: GT would be 3-0 against the group and clinch the division.
Miami can't be part of any of these scenarios because they play GT next week, meaning one of those two teams will drop to four losses and be out of the ties.
Because of all of this, we know that Miami and Pitt are out of contention due to tiebreakers.
Out of contention:
-Miami (2-3)
W: VT, uva
L: UNC, Duke
-Pitt (2-3)
W: VT
L: GT, UNC
-uva (1-5)
W: GT
L: Duke, Miami, UNC
-Virginia Tech (1-5)
L: UNC, Pitt, Miami, GT
SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (6-0) can clinch with one more win or Tennessee loss.
Needs help:
-Tennessee (4-1) lost to Georgia, so their only chance of winning the division would be to win out while Georgia loses out.
With Georgia's worst possible record being 6-2, any team with 3 or more losses has been eliminated.
Out of contention:
-South Carolina (3-3)
-Kentucky (3-3)
-Mizzou (2-4)
-Florida (2-4)
-Vanderbilt (0-5)
West
Controls destiny:
-LSU (5-1)
W: Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, Alabama
Remaining games: Arkansas, Texas A&M
Needs help:
-Ole Miss (4-1) needs a loss by LSU.
W: Auburn, Texas A&M
L: LSU
Remaining games: Alabama, Arkansas, Miss State
-Alabama (4-2) needs two losses by LSU.
W: Arkansas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
L: LSU
Remaining games: Ole Miss, Auburn
-Arkansas (2-3) needs losses by Alabama (2) and Miss State, plus additional losses by LSU and Ole Miss.
W: Auburn
L: Texas A&M, Alabama, Miss State
Remaining games: LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri
Out of control:
-Mississippi State (3-3) will be eliminated with a loss or LSU win.
W: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn
L: LSU, Alabama
Remaining games: Georgia, Ole Miss
Out of contention:
-Texas A&M (1-5)
-Auburn (1-5)
Mississippi State and Arkansas can be eliminated with their next loss, or LSU's next win. (For Arkansas, that could be both next week.)
Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Michigan (6-0)
W: Maryland, Indiana, PSU, Michigan State, Rutgers
-Ohio State (6-0)
W: Rutgers, Michigan State, Penn State
Since these teams play each other at the end of the season, the worst possible record to clinch the division is 7-2. That eliminates any team with 3 or more losses.
Since Penn State (4-2) has lost to both OSU and Michigan, they could not win any tiebreakers, so they are eliminated.
Out of contention:
-Penn State (4-2)
-Maryland (3-3)
-Michigan State (2-4)
-Rutgers (1-5)
-Indiana (1-5)
West
Controls destiny:
-Illinois (4-2)
W: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska
Needs help:
-Wisconsin (3-3) needs losses by Illinois (2).
W: Northwestern, Purdue
L: Illinois
-Iowa (3-3) needs losses by by Illinois (2).
W: Northwestern, Purdue
L: Illinois
-Purdue (3-3) need losses by Wisconsin and Iowa.
W: Minnesota, Nebraska
L: Wisconsin, Iowa
-Minnesota (3-3) needs losses by Purdue and Illinois (2).
W: Nebraska
L: Purdue, Illinois
-Nebraska (2-4) needs losses by Minnesota (2), Purdue (2), and Illinois (3).
L: Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota
-Northwestern (1-5) needs losses by Wisconsin (3), Iowa (3), and Nebraska, plus additional losses by Illinois (2) and Purdue (2).
W: Nebraska
L: Wisconsin, Iowa
This division has one of the tightest races I've ever seen. It doesn't help that the Big Ten has so many cross divisional games and seems to front load their schedule with them.
Big 12
-TCU (6-0)
W: Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, WVU, Texas Tech
-Kansas State (4-2)
W: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
L: TCU, Texas
-Texas (4-2)
W: WVU, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Kansas State
L: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
-Baylor (4-2)
W: Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma
L: Oklahoma State, WVU
-Kansas (3-3)
W: WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
L: TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor
-Oklahoma State (3-3)
W: Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas
L: TCU, Kansas State, Kansas
Out of contention:
-Texas Tech (2-4)
W: Texas, WVU
L: Kansas State, OK State, Baylor, TCU
-Oklahoma (2-4)
W: Kansas, Iowa State
L: Kansas State, TCU, Texas, Baylor
-Iowa State (1-5)
W: WVU
L: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma
-West Virginia (1-5)
W: Baylor
L: Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State
The Kansas State at Baylor game next week is very important. The winner will have 5 wins. Since TCU is already sitting at 6 wins, we know that the threshold for getting into the championship game is at least 5 wins. That eliminates any 5-loss team. It also turns out that Kansas State and Baylor both have beaten the current 4-loss teams, thus eliminating Texas Tech and Oklahoma on tiebreakers.
Pac-12
-Oregon (6-0)
W: Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal, Colorado
-UCLA (5-1)
W: Colorado, Washington, Utah, Stanford, Arizona State
L: Oregon
-Utah (5-1)
W: Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Arizona
L: UCLA
-USC (6-1)
W: Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Arizona, Cal
L: Utah
-Washington (4-2)
W: Stanford, Arizona, Cal, Oregon State
L: UCLA, Arizona State
Out of contention for the #1 seed:
-Oregon State (3-3)
W: Stanford, Washington State, Colorado
L: USC, Utah, Washington
Let's look at the scenarios if Oregon State wins out and finishes 6-3. There is still a possibility that all of the current contenders could end up with that same record. Oregon State would only have a head-to-head over Oregon in that case, and they wouldn't play UCLA. I feel like they don't have enough tiebreakers to get the #1 seed. I'm not sure if they could even make the #2 seed, but that's a lot of scenarios to parse through with unclear tiebreak procedures.
Wins by both Oregon and USC would eliminate both Washington and Oregon State.
With both Oregon and USC having 6 wins, any team with 4 or more wins is automatically eliminated.
Out of contention:
-Washington State (2-4)
-Arizona State (2-4)
-Arizona (1-5)
-Cal (1-5)
-Colorado (1-5)
-Stanford (1-6)
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