The best part about only having one week left of the regular season is that it really makes for clean "what if" scenarios.
ACC Championship: Clemson Tigers (8-0) vs. UNC Tar Heels (6-1)
Both teams clinched their divisions by virtue of having the best record in either division. Obviously, Clemson has gone undefeated in conference play. Even with a loss this week, UNC is still at least two games ahead of every other Coastal team. There will be no tiebreakers required in the ACC.
SEC Championship: Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vs. LSU Tigers (6-1)
Georgia has the best record in the East. If LSU wins their last game, they will have the best record in the West, and no tiebreakers are needed. If they lose, they still have head-to-head tiebreakers over any other 2-loss team.
Big Ten
East
Michigan (8-0) at Ohio State (8-0) on November 26 is a winner-take-all game for the division. The winner will have the best record in the division, and no tiebreakers are required.
West
With Iowa and Purdue both sitting at 5-3, we know that the division winner will be 6-3 or 5-4. That officially eliminates Nebraska (2-6) and Northwestern (1-7). The rest of the teams (Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) are all sitting at 4-4. With only one week left, we can look at all of the possible scenarios.
If the winning record is 6-3, there are only three scenarios:
-Iowa and Purdue both win -- Iowa has head-to-head and clinches.
-Iowa wins, Purdue loses -- Iowa has best record and clinches.
-Purdue wins, Iowa loses -- Purdue has the best record and clinches.
For any of the current 4-4 teams to have a chance, they need both Iowa and Purdue to lose to set up a multi-team tie at 5-4 (as well as winning themselves). So, Iowa and Purdue will be involved in all ties. Since Minnesota and Wisconsin play each other, one of those teams will also be involved in all of those ties, but we can't have any ties involving both.
Therefore, there are only four possible scenarios at 5-4:
-Iowa/Purdue/Minnesota
--Setup: Minnesota beats Wisconsin; Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois all lose
--Outcome: Iowa clinches by having head-to-head over both teams.
-Iowa/Purdue/Wisconsin
--Setup: Wisconsin beats Minnesota; Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois all lose
--Outcome: Iowa clinches by having head-to-head over both teams.
-Iowa/Purdue/Minnesota/Illinois
--Setup: Minnesota beats Wisconsin; Illinois wins; Iowa and Purdue lose
--Outcome: Minnesota is 0-3 in the group, but the rest are 2-1.
---This moves us to a three way tie of Iowa/Purdue/Illinois. All three are 1-1 against each other.
----Divisional records: Iowa (4-2), Purdue (4-2), Illinois (5-1)
-----Illinois clinches on divisional record.
-Iowa/Purdue/Wisconsin/Illinois
--Setup: Wisconsin beats Minnesota; Illinois wins; Iowa and Purdue lose
--Outcome: Purdue and Wisconsin are 1-2, Iowa and Illinois are 2-1. Illinois would clinch on head-to-head over Iowa.
Ultimately, the Wisconsin/Minnesota game has no bearing on the divisional race, and both teams are out of contention.
-Iowa (5-3) can clinch with a win over Nebraska or losses by Illinois and Purdue.
W: Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota
L: Illinois
-Purdue (5-3) can clinch with a win over Indiana and an Iowa loss.
W: Minnesota, Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern
L: Wisconsin, Iowa
-Illinois (4-4) can clinch with a win and Iowa loss and Purdue loss.
W: Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska
L: Purdue
Out of contention:
-Minnesota (4-4)
W: Nebraska, Northwestern
L: Purdue, Illinois, Iowa
-Wisconsin (4-4)
W: Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska
L: Illinois, Iowa
-Nebraska (2-6)
-Northwestern (1-7)
The division could be determined on Black Friday if Iowa beats Nebraska. Otherwise, it will come down to the Purdue and Illinois games on Saturday.
Big 12
Clinched the #1 seed:
-TCU (8-0)
Regardless of outcomes next week, TCU has the undisputed best record in the Big 12.
Still in contention for #2 seed:
-Kansas State (6-2) can clinch with a win or Texas loss.
-Texas (5-3) can clinch with a win and Kansas State loss.
Texas has the tiebreaker over Kansas State, which is why they would clinch a berth if both teams end up 6-3.
The maximum conference drama would be for Texas to win on Black Friday, so that the Kansas/Kansas State game will determine the final seed.
Out of contention:
-Oklahoma State (4-4)
-Baylor (4-4)
-Texas Tech (4-4)
-Kansas (3-5)
-Oklahoma (3-5)
-West Virginia (2-6)
-Iowa State (1-7)
Pac-12
Clinched a spot:
-USC (8-1)
W: Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Arizona, Cal, Colorado, UCLA
L: Utah
USC is done with their conference schedule, so they are locked into one of the top two spots. If Oregon is the other team in the conference title game, and both teams are 8-1, I don't know how the Pac-12 intends to determine which team is #1, if they even care about that.
The second championship team will either have a record of 8-1 (only if Oregon wins) or 7-2. How do the scenarios play out for ties at 7-2?
Scenario #1 - Oregon/Utah
-Setup: Oregon and Washington lose, Utah wins.
-Outcome: Oregon wins on head-to-head.
Scenario #2 - Oregon/Washington
-Setup: Oregon and Utah lose, Washington wins.
-Outcome: Washington wins on head-to-head.
Before we get into the three way tie, here's a quick rundown of tiebreaking steps for the Pac-12. (I'm only including the steps that we'll actually be needing to use):
-Step 1: Head-to-head (but if all of the teams have not played, go to step two.)
-Step 2: Win percentage against common conference opponents.
--The only teams that played all three are Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, and Colorado.
Scenario #3 - Oregon/Utah/Washington
-Setup: Oregon loses, Utah and Washington win
-Step 1: Oregon beat both Utah and Washington, but those two teams didn't play each other.
-Step 2: Records against common opponents - Oregon (5-0), Utah (4-1), Washington (4-1)
-Outcome: Oregon wins on tiebreakers.
-Oregon (7-1) can clinch with a win or Washington loss.
W: Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, Cal, Colorado, Utah
L: Washington
Remaining: Oregon State
-Washington (6-2) can clinch with a win and Oregon loss.
W: Stanford, Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Oregon, Colorado
L: UCLA, Arizona State
Remaining: Washington State
All of this shows that Utah is out of contention, and the outcome of their game does not affect the end result. It also shows that the Pac-12's decision to abolish divisions this season did not matter at the end of the season. Actually, it made the tiebreaker procedure more complicated. If they still had divisions, then it would just be a simple matter of dealing with Oregon and Washington's records and head-to-head. Utah would have been eliminated this weekend by virtue of this weekend's outcomes.
The Pac-12 should adjust their tiebreaker language to take out unnecessary steps. Since Oregon is 2-0 against the other potentially tied teams, the tiebreakers should end right there, even though Utah and Washington didn't play each other. As it turns out, we had to take that extra step but still got to the same result.
The Pac-12 lucked out this year but they overcomplicated the process.
Out of contention:
-Utah (6-2)
W: Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford
L: UCLA, Oregon
Remaining: Colorado
-UCLA (5-3)
-Oregon State (5-3)
-Washington State (4-4)
-Arizona State (2-6)
-Arizona (2-6)
-Cal (2-6)
-Colorado (1-6)
-Stanford (1-8)
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