New Year's Six projections: Week 12

This is one of the more difficult weeks to do NY6 projections.  As you know, at this blog, we don't automatically place the current top four teams in the CFP if we know that they have to face off at some point during the season.

But what also makes this week's rankings interesting is knowing that the first criteria that the committee has used since the start of the CFP is number of losses.  Right now, there are four undefeated teams:  Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU.  There are two 1-loss teams:  USC and Clemson.  Until the total number of teams with 1 or 0 losses is less than 4, none of the 2-loss teams stand a chance of getting into the final four -- based on history.

We're seeing the #2 vs #3 matchup this weekend with Ohio State vs. Michigan.  The loser of that game will end the season at 11-1.  The winner will go on to the Big Ten Championship game, and end the season with a record of 13-0 or 12-1.  Will the loser automatically be out of the top 4 by bowl season?  It all depends on how the other teams do.  

Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this year, limiting the at-large positions.

Projected semi-finals (Peach and Fiesta):
#1 Georgia vs. #6 USC
winner of #2 Ohio State/#3 Michigan vs. #4 TCU

There's no sense projecting any semi-final that will pit OSU against Michigan again, and #5 LSU will play #1 Georgia in the SEC title game.  This projection is assuming that Georgia wins.

Rose Bowl:  loser of #2 Ohio State/#3 Michigan vs. #9 Oregon
We're getting the second highest-ranked team from both participating conferences.

Sugar Bowl: #5 LSU vs. #12 Kansas State
Again, both projected champs are projected to be playoff bound, so we turn to the second highest ranked teams in either conference.  Although, there's a decent chance that Alabama could sneak into this spot if LSU loses the SEC title game.

Orange Bowl:  winner of #8 Clemson/#17 UNC vs. #7 Alabama
It might be cheating, but the winner of the ACCCG is going to this game regardless.  There is a slight chance Clemson could move up into the top 4 with some other losses going on, and that could open the door for FSU to slide in here as they are currently ranked ahead of UNC.
Again, the opponent is the highest ranked team out of the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame that isn't already committed to the CFP, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl.

Cotton Bowl:  #19 Tulane vs. #10 Tennessee
Again, I haven't looked at the G5 races close enough, but Tulane looks like they could win their conference, and they are the  highest ranked G5 team right now.  Tennessee is the highest ranked team not already projected into a NY6 bowl.