Projecting the New Year's Six: Week 12

Chaos may have reigned on the field, but it helped stabilize the rankings a bit.  This week, I only need to generate one scenario (albeit with an either/or option).



Since Clemson and Miami are #2 and #3 respectively, and they will be playing in the ACC Championship Game, I feel comfortable projecting the winner to the CFP, and the loser to the Orange Bowl.

Sugar Bowl:  #1 Alabama vs. #5 Wisconsin
Rose Bowl:  #2 Clemson or #3 Miami vs. #4 Oklahoma

Only the Pac-12 champion would be displaced, which at this point is down to four teams:  #11 USC, #14 Washington State, #18 Washington, or #22 Stanford.

UCF is still the G5 representative at #15.  That leaves four at large spots, which would be the teams ranked #7-10:  Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Orange Bowl:  #2 Clemson or #3 Miami vs. #6 Auburn
Peach Bowl:  #8 Notre Dame vs. #15 UCF
Fiesta Bowl:  #9 Ohio State vs. Pac-12 champ
Cotton Bowl:  #7 Georgia vs. #10 Penn State

Projecting these bowls and creating matchups is difficult this time.  All of the four at-large teams have played one of the other teams among the group and Notre Dame has played two of the potential Pac-12 champs.  (Well, they haven't played Stanford yet, but it's on the schedule.)  I still think the Pac-12 champ will go to the Fiesta Bowl, just to stay close to their conference footprint.

On the one hand, I think the committee will try to give the Peach Bowl one of the highest ranked teams to balance out the Group of Five team.  But on the other hand, I don't know if Georgia will be considered due to their proximity.  (I am well aware of their appearance in the 2006 Chick-fil-a Bowl, having seen it in person, but the selection process was different back then.)  Therefore, I am working on the theory that they get Notre Dame (the next highest team), who's "national fanbase" should travel well enough to Atlanta.

Because of all that, I had to put Georgia in the Cotton Bowl, because Ohio State and Penn State couldn't be paired up.  The two Big Ten schools could probably be placed interchangeably, but I opted to balance out the rankings of the teams.  Once again, we find ourselves with a traditional Rose Bowl matchup in the Fiesta Bowl.

At this point, it looks like you have to be in the top ten to get into the New Year's Six, unless you're in the Pac-12, who isn't likely to get any teams in other than the champion.

Finally, a break down of NY6 teams by conference, through each week's projections.

ACC:  2, 2
SEC:  3, 3
Big Ten:  1, 3
Pac-12:  2, 1
Big 12:  2, 1
Independent:  1, 1
G5:  1, 1