2017 Season: Post-November Thoughts and Championship Look-Ahead

It's Championship Week already? With each passing year, it seems we get to this point sooner and sooner!



November Takeaways

After plenty of high-stakes games in three of the four weekends, we've got our championships set! And a lot of rematches across all of FBS!

Some highlights include:

• Ohio State opening the month with a THUD to Iowa, but doing well otherwise.
• Oklahoma handling Oklahoma State and TCU with relative ease in back-to-back weeks.
• Wisconsin pulling off the only undefeated season among Power 5 teams.
• UCF winning a thriller in the War on I-4 and capping the only other undefeated season in all of FBS.
• Memphis pulling off a 10-win season of its own, showing that it's not just about one coach or player.
• Auburn beating Georgia - and then Alabama. And better yet, quite convincingly. No Prayer in Jordan-Hare or Kick Six necessary; the Tigers were just flat-out better than both.
• Speaking of Tigers, how about Clemson putting forth a strong effort and landing at #1 in the AP and Coaches polls after the regular season is said and done?

And some low-lights:

• Notre Dame going from a solid #3, win-and-in for CFP contention, to losing convincingly twice in its final three games and possibly missing out on the New Year's Six entirely.
• SEC teams totally collapsing once it was clear they were out of any higher-level contention. Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M. Shame on all of them for not even trying to salvage some pride.
• Speaking of Tennessee, perhaps one of the biggest coaching-hiring cluster-***'s I've seen. Why couldn't  the Bristol game follow this massive coaching ***-up instead of the much more respectable transition in Blacksburg?
• Miami's massive inconsistency. Way to go, Hurricanes, with your best West Virginia impression as a #2 team against a 7-loss Pittsburgh! For Miami's sake, at least we're in an era that's slightly more forgiving for such a thing (just ask Clemson).

Championship Preview

This year could be as close to Quarterfinals as we'll see in the CFP era. 

• The ACC and SEC Championship games will definitely function in this way. 
• The Big 12 Championship Game returns with Oklahoma in a win-and-in situation. TCU can play spoiler and make things interesting for Ohio State and Alabama.
• The Big Ten Championship Game features Wisconsin in a win-and-in. Ohio State winning will open up the season-defining discussion.
• Sorry, PAC-12. I just can't fathom USC doing enough to jump all the way into the Top 4. But it'll be interesting to see if the South can win for the first time (0-6 so far since the CG debuted in 2011).
• Only one Group of Five conference title game will be nationally relevant, but it could be a doozy. Unbeaten UCF will host Memphis (only loss to UCF) in a battle for the New Year's Six. At least that part is simple, and the winner will be most deserving of the NY6 bid.

Playoff Race

As I mentioned above, the ACC and SEC champs should be able to rest easy knowing they're fine. That's 2 spots. But what about the other two?

Oklahoma and Wisconsin have nothing to fear if they win. But what if one or both of them don't?

• If ONLY Wisconsin loses, then the 4th spot will be up for debate between 11-1 Alabama and 11-2 Ohio State. I suspect the key factors will be:
• The nature of Ohio State's win over the Badgers. Are we in store for another 59-0 shocker in the absence of J.T. Barrett? Or will it be much closer?
• The SEC Champ. An Auburn win will make Alabama's loss look as good as possible, even though that loss wasn't particularly close.
• The debate of being a 2-loss conference champ vs. a 1-loss non-champ. Cue the comparisons to last year and Ohio State/Penn State. Without the same resume strength for Alabama, could Ohio State win the debate as a member of the "other side" in 2017?
• My prediction: Should we come to this situation, Ohio State squeaks in - but not without a lot of fan groaning.
• If ONLY Oklahoma loses, then we're looking at a collection of Alabama, Oklahoma and TCU for comparison - and perhaps USC as well. While Alabama's schedule isn't great, none of the 2-loss teams have exactly a "gang-busters" schedule. 
• My prediction: Look for Alabama to win this debate should this situation become reality, and with relative ease.
• If BOTH Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, then say hello to the possibility of both Alabama and Ohio State. But not without some debate about Oklahoma, its likely Heisman winner and its convincing win in Columbus. And groans from the masses toward the CFP committee for "doing whatever it takes to get Alabama and Ohio State in".
• My prediction: The two CFP regulars and former champs Tide/Buckeyes get in, and there is a lot of complaining. Perhaps a situation for the "expand the playoff, we're tired of the same old teams" contingent (especially if Clemson beats Miami and we have THREE CFP regulars).

New Year's Six Race

With so many highly-ranked teams among the conference title game participants, the NY6 field looks to be pretty set.

LOCKS:

• ACC (2): Clemson and Miami. Winner to the CFP, loser to the Orange Bowl.
• SEC (3): Auburn, Georgia and Alabama. Champ to CFP. Loser falls below Alabama in the rankings. Likely the conference that yields the other Orange Bowl team.
• Big Ten (3): Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State. 
• Big 12 (1): Oklahoma.
• PAC-12 (1): USC-Stanford winner, likely the Fiesta Bowl.
• American (1): UCF-Memphis winner, likely the Peach Bowl.

UP FOR DEBATE - 1 SPOT

Note: In order for there to even be a debate, Oklahoma must defeat TCU. If TCU wins, then the Horned Frogs have an automatic NY6 spot (and 11-2 Oklahoma will still be well within range).

• 9-3 Notre Dame. Good resume, probably the best of the three. But bad trend at season's end with 2 convincing losses (and an unimpressive win) in its final 3 games.
• 10-2 Washington. Fewest losses, but worst resume. Beating Wazzu to finish helps salvage some schedule strength.
• 10-3 TCU. Does the CCG loss bump the Frogs from above both teams to below? I suppose it depends on how competitive the rematch is with Oklahoma. In past years, teams haven't been overly penalized for losing in the "bonus round" when compared to non-CCG teams.

PREDICTIONS: Coming Thursday evening.