November predictions

Where has the football season gone?  We're already down to the final month.  Yet again, it's time to adjust the predictions, and this time, we have the added benefit of the first CFP rankings, as well as knowing some teams that are definitely out of the race.

ACC
Previous predictions:  At the beginning of the season, I said that the conference was going to be a four way race between VT, Miami, FSU, and Clemson.  The Coastal was going to be wide open as usual (except UVA), while the Atlantic was going to be FSU and Clemson, then Louisville, and then all of their friends.

After September, FSU obviously dropped out of that race, and Louisville was pushed back into the pack of the Atlantic.  UVA rose up a little bit, UNC dropped like a rock, and Duke was puzzling.  It felt like the ACC became "Clemson and everyone else."

Current thoughts:  Clemson has come back down to Earth a bit.  I had elevated them up into that Alabama territory where they were better than everyone else, but then I had a chance to sort of rethink that whole process (I'll explain more in the SEC portion of this post).  I never thought that NC State would be the team up there with Clemson, but it seems like this was the year that everything would come together for them.  As I've mentioned several times before, their biggest hurdle was FSU, where they would always play them close, but still end up losing.  They managed to win this year (partly due to FSU's fall from grace), but they've also strung together a nice season so far.

BC has surprised me since their loss to VT at the beginning of the month.  Now that sloppy win for the Hokies is looking more and more quality.  We've actually got a situation where it's Clemson and NC State at the top, BC behind them a ways, and then everyone else at the bottom.

Over in the Coastal, it still comes down to VT vs. Miami.  Miami has had way too many close games, and it will catch up to them at some point.  They barely beat UNC, a team that was thoroughly dismantled and demoralized a week prior by the Hokies.  In fact, UNC has replaced UVA in the original prediction, and I think they are going to be the main reason why a circle of suck graphic cannot be created for the ACC this season, as they will go 0-8 in conference.  While only Duke and UNC have been officially eliminated, I don't think anyone other than VT, Miami, or GT has a realistic chance of winning the Coastal, and even GT is a long shot.  It is refreshing to not have to be talking about too many tiebreaker scenarios at this point of the season.

Of course now, I don't know if the Coastal is just a race for #2 in the ACC.

Predictions:
August Prediction:  Florida State over Virginia Tech
October Prediction:  Clemson over Virginia Tech

November Prediction:  Clemson over Virginia Tech (but a lesser margin)

SEC
Previous predictions:  Alabama is going to dominate the West again.  In the East, I thought Tennessee would do their usual climbing of the polls until Halloween and then drop rapidly.  I thought the division would come down to Florida or Georgia.  Ultimately, I figured it didn't really matter too much as Alabama is so far ahead of everyone else in the conference that it's not even fun anymore.

Current thoughts:  So, yeah, Tennessee really decided to drop like a rock early.  I don't even know how Butch Jones still has a job, especially after Florida has already fired their coach.  I was a little worried that Georgia would stupidly lose the Florida game, as that seemed to be their hurdle most years, but they had a statement game.

Now, the elephant in the room:  Alabama.  Is it just me, or are they starting to take some of the fun out of college football?  They just sit there at the top of the polls (even though they are #2 in the CFP rankings), and just effortlessly reload year after year.  Sometimes, I just want to give them the trophy and make the CFP a tournament for #2.

And the worst part of it all is that they come out in week 1, play a big game, and then almost disappear until November.  Part of that is due to their scheduling, where they play two G5 teams in September, which get buried on ESPN2.  Part of that is due to TV rights, where they can't be part of the ABC Saturday Night Football package, and the majority of the SEC games are pushed out of the 3:30 slot except for CBS and the SEC Network, so they get shifted over to the ESPN primetime game, where no one is interested in watching Alabama beat the middle of the pack SEC teams while ABC has the marquee game of the day.

Then, Alabama finally re-emerges in November (right after the CFP rankings start coming out), bookended with games against LSU and Auburn, even though they have the traditional SEC FCS cupcake the weekend before Thanksgiving.  It's like we've gotten to the point where collectively the college football fanbase remembers that for all of the different scenarios going on in conference races and the CFP rankings, we still have to account for Alabama, who will probably beat everyone.

So, are they really that good?  Probably, but they're annoying as hell right now.  And I'm tired of putting them up in that upper tier above everyone else.  My prediction isn't changing, but it's not like I'm rooting for them.

August Prediction:  Alabama over Florida
October Prediction:  Alabama over Georgia

November Prediction:  Alabama over Georgia (but I would really prefer Georgia to win)

Big Ten
Previous predictions:   The West division is going to be an afterthought to the East yet again.  The East will again come down to the three team race of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.  But, I think ultimately, the Michigan/OSU game to end the season will be a de facto B1G East championship.  However, OSU's week 2 loss brings back memories of 2014, but I don't know if they can overcome this time.

Current thoughts:  Ohio State regained some momentum by beating Penn State, and that came might have been the de facto division championship game.  Michigan is probably out.  And the West will most likely be Wisconsin, who can't really hang with anyone outside of their division.

August Prediction:  Ohio State over Minnesota
October Prediction:  Penn State over Wisconsin

November Prediction:  Ohio State over Wisconsin

Pac-12
Previous predictions:  If Washington State doesn't lose stupid games early, they can keep things interesting.

Current thoughts:  Washington State didn't lose too early, but they did lose.  The Pac-12 is beating themselves up too much to make the CFP.

August Prediction:  USC over Washington State
October Prediction:  Washington State over USC

November Prediction:  Washington State over USC

Big 12
Previous predictions:  The Big 12 is interesting this year, as they have a championship game with no divisions.  The Bedlam game has been moved off of its traditional Thanksgiving weekend slot, since the conference doesn't want to risk a back-to-back rematch.  I later amended that to speculate that WVU at Oklahoma could be a championship game match-up.

Current thoughts:  Iowa State is going to screw the Big 12 over moreso than usual.  Might as well create a wheel of destiny for this conference.

August Prediction:  Oklahoma State over Texas
October Prediction:  Oklahoma over WVU

November Prediction:  Oklahoma State over TCU  (because why the hell not?)

College Football Playoff
Now we've reached the part of the season where it's not so much who I think will be there, but who I think the committee will select.  I find it hard to believe that the committee would even attempt to put Alabama and Georgia both in the final four, assuming they both play the SEC Championship Game.  There would be way too much of a crapstorm, especially with Notre Dame threatening to take a spot.  A final four with Alabama, Georgia, and Notre Dame would lock out three of the Power 5 conferences, and subsequently piss them off.

I also don't blindly take whatever the current rankings are and pretend like those are the four teams that will actually be in the CFP if the season ended that week.  Of course the committee knows there are more games coming, but they can't base their rankings off games that have yet to be played.

The Pac-12 has round-robined themselves out of the CFP, and the Big 12 will likely do so as well.  While I don't know if Notre Dame can run the table in November, games Wake Forest, Miami, Navy, and Stanford all look winnable. 

August Prediction:  Florida State, Alabama, USC, Ohio State
October Prediction:  Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Oklahoma

November Prediction:  Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State

As much as I would prefer to see Georgia represent the SEC (and would just love to see VT in the mix at all), I'm not ready to pull the trigger on such a prediction.

Other predictions:
-I think the Big 12 is going to have a 12-0 or 11-1 team facing off against a 9-3 team or worse in their championship game.  And if that lower team wins, or at least threatens to win, you'll see the conference get nervous.  Wouldn't it be something if the lesser team wins, and knocks the other team out of playoff contention in that "all important" 13th game?

By Halloween, the entire conference had picked up at least one loss. Meanwhile, we have Iowa State trying to ruin the season for the entire conference.  Usually, they suck, but can manage a win against one of the top two teams in the conference to really put a kink in things.  This year, they've beaten two of the "good" Big 12 teams (Oklahoma and TCU), while already having losses weighing them down.

Maybe this exact scenario won't play out this year, but there will be something that happens in the Big 12 championship game that screws the conference over.

-The Wheel of Destiny will be in full force in the ACC Coastal.  There will be at least one team that wins a game they should lose, but then lose a game they should win.

So far, we haven't seen a lot of this, unless we count Miami's close wins, and a few of UVA's wins.  Meanwhile, there's actually a scenario where the division can be clinched in the first weekend of November.

-Notre Dame should have a winning record against the ACC.  I think they'll sweep the Atlantic teams (BC, NC State, and WF).

The first part of this prediction has already come true, as Notre Dame is 3-0 (BC, UNC, and NC State).  We'll find out about sweeping the Atlantic this weekend.

-There won't be any Group of 5 teams still in the conversation for a CFP spot past Halloween.

Almost on cue, South Florida lost their last game prior to Halloween.  San Diego State dropped two in October, clearly taking them out of the conversation.  UCF is still chugging along, but they are ranked #18 in the first CFP rankings, which is a little too far outside of the range where CFP participants have come from.  Working against them is the logjam of 1-loss Power 5 teams in the top 13.  Also, they had to cancel a game against Georgia Tech due to a hurricane.  Maybe that helped them, by eliminating a potential loss, but it also took a potential win off their schedule, which could have helped boost them up.