Breaking down the New Year's Six Bowls

Now that we've been through a full cycle of CFP games, I thought it would be worth taking a look at how the selection for the New Year's Six bowls played out, with a focus on any teams in the top 12 that got left out due to other contractual obligations.


2014
Semi-finals:
Rose Bowl - #2 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) vs. #3 FSU (ACC champ)
Sugar Bowl - #1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs. #4 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

The only team to get displaced was the Big 12 champ, out of the Sugar Bowl.  Due to FSU's inclusion in the semi-finals, the Orange Bowl needed a replacement from the ACC.

Rest of New Year's Six:
#5 Baylor (Big 12 champ) -- Cotton Bowl (displaced from Sugar Bowl)
#6 TCU (Big 12) -- Peach Bowl
#7 Mississippi State (SEC) -- Orange Bowl (highest ranked SEC/Big Ten/ND after champs)
#8 Michigan State (Big Ten) -- Cotton Bowl
#9 Ole Miss (SEC) -- Peach Bowl
#10 Arizona (Pac-12) -- Fiesta Bowl
#12 Georgia Tech (ACC) -- Orange Bowl (ACC replacement)
#20 Boise State (MW) -- Fiesta Bowl (highest ranked G5 champ)

The teams ranked #6, and #8-10 all earned at-large spots based on merit.

#11 Kansas State (Big 12) was left out of the New Year's Six, due to the G5 champ.

2015
Semi-finals:
Orange Bowl - #1 Clemson (ACC champ) vs. #4 Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
Cotton Bowl - #2 Alabama (SEC champ) vs. #3 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

No team was actually displaced for this round of semi-finals.  Clemson would have gone to the Orange Bowl as ACC champ regardless, and the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame pool does not apply in years where the Orange Bowl is a semi-final.

The Sugar Bowl needed replacements for both teams, while the Rose Bowl needed a Big Ten replacement.

Rest of New Year's Six:
#5 Iowa (Big Ten) -- Rose Bowl (Big Ten replacement)
#6 Stanford (Pac-12 champ) -- Rose Bowl
#7 Ohio State (Big Ten) -- Fiesta Bowl
#8 Notre Dame (independent) -- Fiesta Bowl
#9 FSU (ACC) -- Peach Bowl
#12 Ole Miss (SEC) -- Sugar Bowl (SEC replacement)
#16 Oklahoma State (Big 12) -- Sugar Bowl (Big 12 replacement)
#18 Houston (American) -- Peach Bowl (highest ranked G5 champ)

The teams ranked #7-9 all earned at-large spots based on merit.

#10 UNC (ACC) and #11 TCU (Big 12) were left out, due to the G5 champ and Sugar Bowl replacements.

2016
Semi-Finals:
Peach Bowl - #1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs. #4 Washington (Pac-12 champ)
Fiesta Bowl - #2 Clemson (ACC champ) vs. #3 Ohio State (Big Ten)

No team was displaced due to both semi-finals taking place in the at-large bowls.  The Sugar, Rose, and Orange Bowls needed replacements for the SEC, Pac-12, and ACC teams, respectively.  The Rose Bowl did not need a Big Ten replacement as Ohio State was not the conference champion.

Rest of New Year's Six:
#5 Penn State (Big Ten champ) -- Rose Bowl
#6 Michigan (Big Ten) -- Orange Bowl (highest ranked SEC/Big Ten/ND after champs)
#7 Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) -- Sugar Bowl
#8 Wisconsin (Big Ten) -- Cotton Bowl
#9 USC (Pac-12) -- Rose Bowl (Pac-12 replacement)
#11 FSU (ACC) -- Orange Bowl (ACC replacement)
#14 Auburn (SEC) -- Sugar Bowl (SEC replacement)
#15 Western Michigan (MAC champ) -- Cotton Bowl (highest ranked G5 champ)

#8 Wisconsin was the only true at-large team.

#10 Colorado (Pac-12) and #12 Oklahoma State (Big 12) were left out, due to the G5 champs and Sugar Bowl replacement.

Analysis
Whether is was intended from the start or not, the G5 representative began rotating through the three at-large bowls.  This is to keep it fair, especially as the Cotton Bowl is forced to take that team every third year.

The highest ranked team to earn an at-large spot without any other contractual obligations was #6 in 2014.

Over three years, only the top 9 have been in New Year's Six bowls every year.

There have not been any Power 5 champs that were ranked lower than #12, but there have been two teams ranked lower than #12 that have been replacement teams for conference champions.