Sunday, November 5, 2017

Week 10 wrap up

A big weekend clarifies a lot of conference races.  We already have one division clinched, and a few more set up to be clinched next weekend.

Bowl ineligible teams with an asterisk are sitting at 7 losses, and might be able to make a bowl depending on availability and APR rankings.

The magic number is determined by taking the team with the most wins in the division and adding the remaining number of games to their loss column, then adding one.  Any team that has the magic number or higher in the loss column is automatically out.  If the two teams at the top have yet to play, the magic number might be decreased by one, as we know one of those teams will get another win.

ACC
Coastal
Miami (6-0) can clinch with a win or UVA loss.
UVA (3-2) can clinch by winning out and Miami losing out.

Miami's worst possible record is 6-2, which means any team with 3 or more conference losses is out.  VT's best possible record would be 6-2, and the only tie possible for them to be part of is with Miami at 6-2, and Miami has the tiebreaker.  There is no possibility of a three team tie at 6-2 based on the remaining games.

Out of contention:
VT (3-2), UNCheat (0-6), Duke (1-5), Pitt (2-3), GT (3-3)

Atlantic
Clemson (6-1) can clinch with a win or NC State loss.
NC State (4-1) can clinch with 3 wins and a Clemson loss.

Out of contention:
Florida State (3-4), Louisville (2-4), WF (2-3), BC (3-3), Syracuse (3-3)

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, NC State, VT, Miami, UVA
One win away:  Louisville, BC, WF
One loss away from no bowl:  FSU
Not bowl eligible:  UNCheat

SEC
East Champions - Georgia (6-0)
Georgia has won the division based on best record.

Out of contention:
Tennessee (0-5), Missouri (1-4), Vanderbilt (0-5), Florida (3-4), South Carolina (4-3), Kentucky (3-3)

West
Alabama (6-0) can clinch with a win and an Auburn loss.
Auburn (5-1) can clinch with two wins.

In any scenario of teams tied at 6-2, Auburn comes out ahead in all of them.  Auburn would either have the best record among the tied teams or the best divisional record, and they would have the proper tiebreakers.  Therefore, LSU and Mississippi State have been officially eliminated.

Out of contention:
Ole Miss (got caught cheating), Arkansas (1-4), Texas A&M (3-3), LSU (3-2), Mississippi State (3-2)

Bowl eligible:  Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State
One win away:  Texas A&M
No bowl:  Ole Miss

LSU failed in their attempt to retain the Championship of Life.  Alabama will be challenged by Mississippi State.

B1G
East

Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
Ohio State (5-1) has tiebreakers over Penn State, Maryland, and Rutgers.
Michigan State (5-1) has a tiebreaker over Michigan and Penn State.

Since these two teams play each other next week, we know that someone is getting to 6 wins.  Therefore, anyone with 4 losses is eliminated.

Needs help:
Penn State (4-2) needs two MSU losses, and two OSU losses. They have a tiebreaker over Michigan.
Michigan (4-2) needs two Michigan State losses and one Penn State loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Rutgers.
Rutgers (3-3) needs OSU to lose out, two Michigan losses, and an extra loss from Michigan State.

Out of contention:
Indiana (0-6), Maryland (2-4)

West

Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
Wisconsin (6-0) has tiebreakers over Northwestern and Nebraska.  They can clinch with a win and Northwestern loss.

Needs help:
Northwestern (4-2) needs three Wisconsin losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa.

Out of control:
Iowa (3-3) and Nebraska (3-3) both need Wisconsin to lose out.

Out of contention:
Minnesota (0-6), Purdue (2-4), Illinois (0-6)

Bowl eligible:  Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa
One loss away from no bowl:  Indiana
No bowl:  Illinois*

Pac-12
North

Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
Washington State (5-2) has a tiebreaker over Stanford.
Washington (5-1) only has tiebreakers over non-contenders.

Needs help:
Stanford (5-2) needs a Washington State loss.

Out of contention: 
Cal (2-5), Oregon State (0-6), Oregon (2-5)

South

Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
USC (6-1) has tiebreakers over Arizona and Arizona State.  They can clinch with a win.

Needs help:
Arizona (4-2) needs USC to lose out.
Arizona State (4-2) needs USC to lose out.

Out of contention:
Utah (2-4), Colorado (2-5), UCLA (2-4)

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona
One win away:  Oregon, Colorado, Cal, Arizona State, Utah
No bowl:  Oregon State

Big 12
Controls destiny:
TCU (5-1) has tiebreakers over Texas, Oklahoma State, WVU, and Kansas State, but lost to Iowa State.
Oklahoma (5-1) has tiebreakers over Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Texas, but lost to Iowa State.

Needs help:
Oklahoma State (4-2) has tiebreakers over WVU and Texas, but lost to TCU and Oklahoma.
West Virginia (4-2) has a tiebreaker over Iowa State, but lost to TCU and OkSt.
Texas (3-3) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, Kansas State, but lost to TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.
Iowa State (4-2) has tiebreakers over TCU and Oklahoma, but lost to Texas and WVU.
Kansas State (3-3) lost to Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU.

Out of contention:
Kansas (0-6), Texas Tech (1-5), Baylor (1-5)

Bowl eligible:  TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, WVU
One game away:  Kansas State
No bowl:  Baylor, Kansas

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